House · 2026

New Hampshire’s 2nd District

Maggie Goodlander (D)v.Lily Tang Williams (R)SAFE D

Incumbent: Maggie Goodlander, currently Democratic.

Projected margin

D+15.6

Nine in ten outcomes: D+25 to D+6

Chance of winning

>99%

Maggie Goodlander

Polls alone

D+15.8

8 polls from 3 pollsters; latest Aug 18. Weight in projection: 67%.

Fundamentals alone

D+15.3

Weight in projection: 33%.

Polls

The average over time

Each poll is first shifted by its sponsor's and its pollster's measured lean, then weighted by recency and track record. Sample size gets no weight: in 2,000-plus past races it predicted nothing about accuracy. Why.

adjusted weighted average shading: which side the average favors each poll, as published party-aligned pollster or sponsor

Before any poll

What the fundamentals say

A regression on past House races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+5.3).

What each term adds to the estimate

BaselineD+0.8

Partisan leanD+4.3

National environmentD+3.6

IncumbencyD+3.6

Incumbent's last over/under-performanceD+0.7

Fundraising gapD+2.3

Fundamentals estimateD+15.3

Input: partisan lean

D+5.1

Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 on this year's lines.

Input: raised from itemized individual donors, through June 30

$2.3M D · $374K R

FEC filings; the model uses the log of the ratio.

Handicappers, for comparison

Cook: Safe D · Sabato: Likely D · Inside Elections: Likely D

Not an input to the projection.

Table view

All 8 polls in the average

“Share” is how much of today’s average each poll supplies. It depends on recency, the pollster’s record, whether the poll screens for likely voters, and how many other polls the same firm has in the race. It does not depend on sample size.

Dates	Pollster	Sample	Goodlander	Williams	As published	Adjusted	Share of average
Aug 17–18	Saint Anselm College Survey Center	701 LV	50	35	D+15	D+14.8 moved 0.2 toward R	66%	source
Jun 24–25	Saint Anselm College Survey Center	802 RV	50	31	D+19	D+18.8 moved 0.2 toward R	10%	source
Jun 24–25	Saint Anselm	1,614 RV	50	31	D+19	D+19.0	18%	source
Mar 16–18	Saint Anselm College Survey Center	739 RV	48	36	D+12	D+11.8 moved 0.2 toward R	1.5%	source
Jan 15–19	University of New Hampshire Survey Center	1,094 LV	54	40	D+14	D+14.1 moved 0.1 toward D	3.7%	source
Nov 18–19 ’25	Saint Anselm College Survey Center	1,102 RV	40	35	D+5	D+4.8 moved 0.2 toward R	0.2%	source
Sep 17–23 ’25	University of New Hampshire Survey Center	508 LV	51	39	D+12	D+12.1 moved 0.1 toward D	0.4%	source
Aug 26–27 ’25	Saint Anselm College Survey Center	881 RV	49	31	D+18	D+17.8 moved 0.2 toward R	0.0%	source

LV: likely voters. RV: registered voters. A: all adults. “Adjusted” is the published margin after removing the sponsor shift and the pollster’s measured house effect; the small print says how far that moved the poll. Dem.-aligned and Rep.-aligned mark polls paid for by a party, a campaign, or an allied group, or taken by a firm whose published work is mostly for one side. They are shifted by the average lean of such polls, then counted at full weight.