House · 2026
New Hampshire’s 1st District
Stefany Shaheen (D)v.Anthony DiLorenzo (R)LIKELY D
Open seat, currently Democratic.
Projected margin
D+8.7
Nine in ten outcomes: D+18 to R+1
Chance of winning
93%
Stefany Shaheen
Polls alone
—
No public general-election polls yet.
Fundamentals alone
D+8.7
Weight in projection: 100%.
Before any poll
What the fundamentals say
A regression on past House races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+5.3).
What each term adds to the estimate
BaselineD+0.8
Partisan leanD+3.0
National environmentD+3.6
Incumbency0.0
Incumbent's last over/under-performance0.0
Fundraising gapD+1.3
Fundamentals estimateD+8.7
Input: partisan lean
D+3.5
Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 on this year's lines.
Input: raised from itemized individual donors, through June 30
$1.8M D · $679K R
FEC filings; the model uses the log of the ratio.
Handicappers, for comparison
Cook: Likely D · Sabato: Lean D · Inside Elections: Lean D
Not an input to the projection.