2026-27 projections
Champions League
Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Knockout stages use 4,000 simulations. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Nov 9, 2026
What these probabilities include
- League-phase GD/GF tiebreakers are followed by a random tie split; later UEFA criteria are approximated. Knockouts are drawn from league-phase ranks. Actual knockout-stage results are not yet supported.
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | Top 8 | 9–24 | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Paris Saint-Germain | #4 | 19.5 | 12 | 4 | 95% | 5% | 99% | 70% | 42% | 23% | 13% |
| 2Real Madrid | #6 | 19.4 | 12 | 4 | 94% | 6% | 99% | 67% | 39% | 20% | 9% |
| 3Arsenal | #2 | 18.7 | 10 | 4 | 91% | 9% | 98% | 75% | 51% | 32% | 19% |
| 4Barcelona | #3 | 17 | 9 | 4 | 77% | 23% | 94% | 65% | 37% | 20% | 10% |
| 5Bayern Munich | #1 | 16.9 | 8 | 4 | 77% | 23% | 95% | 72% | 45% | 28% | 15% |
| 6Manchester City | #5 | 16.1 | 9 | 4 | 61% | 39% | 89% | 58% | 33% | 19% | 10% |
| 7Liverpool | #7 | 15.9 | 9 | 4 | 55% | 45% | 86% | 51% | 26% | 12% | 6% |
| 8Aston Villa | #16 | 15.3 | 9 | 4 | 49% | 51% | 78% | 37% | 14% | 6% | 2% |
| 9Club Brugge | #27 | 14.5 | 9 | 4 | 34% | 64% | 68% | 26% | 9% | 3% | <1% |
| 10Sporting CP | #13 | 14.2 | 9 | 4 | 29% | 69% | 70% | 31% | 12% | 5% | 2% |
| 11Real Betis | #48 | 14.2 | 9 | 4 | 23% | 75% | 55% | 17% | 5% | 1% | <1% |
| 12Borussia Dortmund | #19 | 14.1 | 9 | 4 | 25% | 72% | 67% | 27% | 11% | 4% | 2% |
| 13Como | #34 | 13.7 | 9 | 4 | 30% | 69% | 64% | 23% | 8% | 2% | <1% |
| 14Internazionale | #8 | 13.7 | 6 | 4 | 26% | 71% | 73% | 39% | 19% | 9% | 4% |
| 15VfB Stuttgart | #37 | 11.9 | 7 | 4 | 10% | 77% | 43% | 13% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| 16Manchester United | #23 | 11.1 | 6 | 4 | 5% | 72% | 42% | 15% | 5% | 2% | <1% |
| 17Galatasaray | #35 | 11.1 | 6 | 4 | 4% | 73% | 37% | 11% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| 18Atlético Madrid | #17 | 10.5 | 4 | 4 | 3% | 69% | 43% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% |
| 19Fenerbahce | #43 | 10.4 | 5 | 4 | 2% | 60% | 26% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 20Bodo/Glimt | #32 | 10.2 | 4 | 4 | 2% | 62% | 30% | 9% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 21PSV Eindhoven | #14 | 9.8 | 4 | 4 | 2% | 60% | 33% | 13% | 5% | 2% | <1% |
| 22Villarreal | #44 | 9.8 | 3 | 4 | <1% | 59% | 25% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 23FC Porto | #21 | 9.6 | 3 | 4 | <1% | 62% | 34% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| 24AS Roma | #24 | 9.5 | 4 | 4 | 1% | 59% | 31% | 11% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| 25Shakhtar Donetsk | #89 | 9.3 | 4 | 4 | 1% | 54% | 18% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 26RB Leipzig | #31 | 9.2 | 3 | 4 | <1% | 49% | 24% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 27Napoli | #41 | 9 | 3 | 4 | <1% | 47% | 19% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 28LASK Linz | #201 | 8.9 | 6 | 4 | <1% | 42% | 8% | <1% | <1% | — | — |
| 29Viking | #56 | 8.7 | 4 | 4 | <1% | 44% | 17% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 30Feyenoord Rotterdam | #46 | 8 | 3 | 4 | <1% | 30% | 12% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 31AEK Athens | #51 | 7.8 | 3 | 4 | <1% | 29% | 13% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 32Lens | #70 | 6.6 | 3 | 4 | — | 12% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% | — |
| 33Lille | #62 | 6.3 | 1 | 4 | — | 14% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 34SABAH FK | — | 4.7 | 3 | 4 | — | 2% | <1% | — | — | — | — |
| 35Slavia Prague | #309 | 3.4 | 1 | 4 | — | <1% | <1% | — | — | — | — |
| 36Slovan Bratislava | #568 | 1.8 | 0 | 4 | — | <1% | — | — | — | — | — |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.