2026-27 projections
Champions League
Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Knockout stages use 4,000 simulations. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Oct 20, 2026
What these probabilities include
- League-phase GD/GF tiebreakers are followed by a random tie split; later UEFA criteria are approximated. Knockouts are drawn from league-phase ranks. Actual knockout-stage results are not yet supported.
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | Top 8 | 9–24 | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Arsenal | #2 | 18.5 | 6 | 2 | 87% | 13% | 98% | 76% | 53% | 35% | 21% |
| 2Paris Saint-Germain | #5 | 18.3 | 9 | 3 | 87% | 13% | 96% | 66% | 40% | 22% | 11% |
| 3Liverpool | #6 | 17.5 | 9 | 3 | 77% | 23% | 92% | 59% | 32% | 16% | 7% |
| 4Real Madrid | #7 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 72% | 27% | 89% | 54% | 27% | 13% | 6% |
| 5Bayern Munich | #1 | 15.8 | 4 | 2 | 63% | 36% | 91% | 66% | 43% | 27% | 15% |
| 6Barcelona | #4 | 15.6 | 6 | 3 | 61% | 38% | 89% | 58% | 32% | 17% | 8% |
| 7Sporting CP | #10 | 15.5 | 6 | 2 | 52% | 46% | 80% | 42% | 18% | 8% | 3% |
| 8Aston Villa | #13 | 15.3 | 6 | 2 | 54% | 44% | 78% | 40% | 17% | 7% | 3% |
| 9Manchester City | #3 | 14.8 | 6 | 3 | 48% | 50% | 86% | 55% | 33% | 19% | 10% |
| 10Real Betis | #59 | 13.4 | 6 | 2 | 24% | 67% | 50% | 15% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| 11VfB Stuttgart | #37 | 13.3 | 7 | 3 | 25% | 68% | 55% | 19% | 6% | 2% | <1% |
| 12Borussia Dortmund | #20 | 13.1 | 6 | 3 | 21% | 70% | 61% | 27% | 11% | 4% | 2% |
| 13Manchester United | #16 | 11.6 | 3 | 2 | 16% | 63% | 51% | 21% | 9% | 4% | 1% |
| 14Atlético Madrid | #22 | 11.5 | 4 | 3 | 12% | 68% | 49% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% |
| 15Internazionale | #8 | 11.4 | 0 | 2 | 14% | 66% | 57% | 29% | 14% | 7% | 3% |
| 16PSV Eindhoven | #26 | 11.2 | 4 | 3 | 10% | 65% | 44% | 16% | 6% | 2% | <1% |
| 17Bodo/Glimt | #25 | 11.2 | 3 | 3 | 7% | 67% | 40% | 14% | 5% | 2% | <1% |
| 18Shakhtar Donetsk | #79 | 11.1 | 4 | 2 | 9% | 64% | 30% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 19Club Brugge | #31 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 11% | 59% | 39% | 14% | 5% | 2% | <1% |
| 20RB Leipzig | #33 | 10.6 | 3 | 2 | 8% | 56% | 32% | 11% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 21Villarreal | #45 | 10.6 | 3 | 3 | 7% | 64% | 32% | 9% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 22AS Roma | #27 | 10.4 | 4 | 3 | 6% | 64% | 38% | 15% | 6% | 2% | <1% |
| 23Feyenoord Rotterdam | #56 | 10.2 | 3 | 2 | 6% | 52% | 25% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 24Como | #44 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 6% | 55% | 30% | 9% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 25Napoli | #38 | 9.9 | 3 | 3 | 3% | 59% | 31% | 11% | 4% | <1% | <1% |
| 26Lens | #43 | 9.9 | 3 | 2 | 5% | 52% | 27% | 8% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 27AEK Athens | #54 | 9.2 | 3 | 3 | 2% | 45% | 19% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 28Viking | #51 | 9.2 | 1 | 2 | 3% | 48% | 22% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 29Fenerbahce | #48 | 8.6 | 2 | 3 | 1% | 38% | 16% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 30FC Porto | #28 | 8.2 | 0 | 3 | <1% | 41% | 22% | 8% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| 31Lille | #57 | 7.9 | 0 | 2 | <1% | 33% | 14% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 32Galatasaray | #40 | 7.8 | 0 | 2 | 1% | 32% | 14% | 4% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 33SABAH FK | — | 5.5 | 3 | 3 | <1% | 6% | <1% | <1% | — | — | — |
| 34LASK Linz | #243 | 5.3 | 0 | 2 | <1% | 8% | 2% | <1% | <1% | — | — |
| 35Slavia Prague | #306 | 3.8 | 1 | 3 | — | 2% | <1% | — | — | — | — |
| 36Slovan Bratislava | — | 2.6 | 0 | 3 | — | <1% | <1% | — | — | — | — |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.