2026-27 projections
Champions League
Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Knockout stages use 4,000 simulations. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Sep 28, 2026
What these probabilities include
- League-phase GD/GF tiebreakers are followed by a random tie split; later UEFA criteria are approximated. Knockouts are drawn from league-phase ranks. Actual knockout-stage results are not yet supported.
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | Top 8 | 9–24 | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Arsenal | #2 | 17.7 | 3 | 1 | 80% | 19% | 95% | 71% | 50% | 33% | 20% |
| 2Bayern Munich | #1 | 17.1 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 24% | 94% | 70% | 48% | 31% | 17% |
| 3Manchester City | #3 | 15.9 | 3 | 1 | 60% | 37% | 87% | 59% | 36% | 21% | 11% |
| 4Liverpool | #6 | 15.8 | 3 | 1 | 58% | 39% | 84% | 52% | 28% | 14% | 7% |
| 5Barcelona | #5 | 15.4 | 3 | 1 | 55% | 41% | 84% | 53% | 30% | 15% | 8% |
| 6Real Madrid | #7 | 15.3 | 3 | 1 | 52% | 44% | 80% | 48% | 25% | 13% | 6% |
| 7Paris Saint-Germain | #4 | 15.1 | 3 | 1 | 53% | 43% | 84% | 55% | 32% | 16% | 9% |
| 8Aston Villa | #19 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 37% | 55% | 68% | 32% | 13% | 5% | 2% |
| 9Sporting CP | #10 | 13.7 | 3 | 1 | 35% | 55% | 67% | 32% | 14% | 6% | 3% |
| 10Borussia Dortmund | #16 | 13.6 | 3 | 1 | 33% | 58% | 64% | 29% | 11% | 5% | 2% |
| 11Internazionale | #8 | 13.4 | 0 | 1 | 34% | 56% | 70% | 37% | 19% | 9% | 4% |
| 12Manchester United | #13 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 29% | 57% | 61% | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% |
| 13VfB Stuttgart | #37 | 12.9 | 3 | 1 | 26% | 59% | 52% | 19% | 6% | 2% | <1% |
| 14Real Betis | #63 | 11.6 | 3 | 1 | 14% | 62% | 37% | 11% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 15FC Porto | #23 | 11.6 | 0 | 1 | 16% | 62% | 51% | 23% | 10% | 4% | 2% |
| 16AS Roma | #27 | 11.4 | 1 | 1 | 15% | 62% | 46% | 19% | 7% | 3% | 1% |
| 17AEK Athens | #51 | 11.3 | 3 | 1 | 13% | 59% | 39% | 13% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| 18Lens | #42 | 11.3 | 3 | 1 | 14% | 57% | 37% | 12% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| 19Como | #48 | 11.1 | 3 | 1 | 14% | 58% | 39% | 14% | 5% | 1% | <1% |
| 20Fenerbahce | #38 | 11.1 | 1 | 1 | 13% | 59% | 38% | 13% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| 21Bodo/Glimt | #26 | 11.1 | 0 | 1 | 12% | 57% | 41% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% |
| 22PSV Eindhoven | #28 | 10.4 | 1 | 1 | 10% | 53% | 37% | 13% | 5% | 1% | <1% |
| 23Atlético Madrid | #25 | 10.2 | 0 | 1 | 10% | 53% | 37% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% |
| 24Napoli | #41 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 7% | 54% | 31% | 11% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| 25Villarreal | #56 | 9.6 | 0 | 1 | 6% | 51% | 25% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 26Galatasaray | #35 | 9.2 | 0 | 1 | 5% | 45% | 27% | 9% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| 27RB Leipzig | #36 | 9.2 | 0 | 1 | 5% | 45% | 26% | 8% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| 28Shakhtar Donetsk | #101 | 8.9 | 1 | 1 | 4% | 42% | 16% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 29Feyenoord Rotterdam | #57 | 8.7 | 0 | 1 | 4% | 40% | 18% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 30Club Brugge | #33 | 8.6 | 0 | 1 | 4% | 41% | 23% | 8% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 31Viking | #67 | 8.6 | 0 | 1 | 3% | 41% | 16% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 32Lille | #55 | 8.4 | 0 | 1 | 2% | 40% | 19% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 33LASK Linz | #188 | 6.3 | 0 | 1 | <1% | 18% | 5% | <1% | <1% | <1% | — |
| 34Slavia Prague | — | 4.8 | 0 | 1 | <1% | 7% | 1% | <1% | <1% | — | — |
| 35Slovan Bratislava | — | 4 | 0 | 1 | <1% | 4% | <1% | — | — | — | — |
| 36SABAH FK | — | 3.6 | 0 | 1 | <1% | 3% | <1% | — | — | — | — |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.