2026-27 projections
Champions League
Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Knockout stages use 4,000 simulations. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Sep 10, 2026
What these probabilities include
- League-phase GD/GF tiebreakers are followed by a random tie split; later UEFA criteria are approximated. Knockouts are drawn from league-phase ranks. Actual knockout-stage results are not yet supported.
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | Top 8 | 9–24 | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Arsenal | #2 | 17.8 | 3 | 1 | 81% | 19% | 96% | 72% | 53% | 36% | 22% |
| 2Bayern Munich | #1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 64% | 34% | 90% | 64% | 43% | 26% | 15% |
| 3Liverpool | #6 | 15.7 | 3 | 1 | 58% | 39% | 83% | 50% | 27% | 13% | 6% |
| 4Manchester City | #4 | 15.5 | 3 | 1 | 56% | 41% | 84% | 55% | 34% | 19% | 10% |
| 5Real Madrid | #7 | 15.4 | 3 | 1 | 54% | 43% | 82% | 48% | 25% | 13% | 6% |
| 6Paris Saint-Germain | #3 | 15.2 | 3 | 1 | 55% | 41% | 85% | 56% | 33% | 19% | 10% |
| 7Barcelona | #5 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 52% | 44% | 80% | 50% | 28% | 15% | 8% |
| 8Sporting CP | #10 | 13.9 | 3 | 1 | 37% | 54% | 71% | 35% | 15% | 7% | 3% |
| 9Aston Villa | #20 | 13.8 | 3 | 1 | 35% | 55% | 66% | 30% | 12% | 5% | 1% |
| 10Internazionale | #8 | 13.6 | 0 | 1 | 36% | 55% | 72% | 40% | 21% | 10% | 5% |
| 11Borussia Dortmund | #16 | 13.1 | 3 | 1 | 28% | 59% | 60% | 28% | 12% | 4% | 2% |
| 12VfB Stuttgart | #33 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 28% | 59% | 54% | 19% | 6% | 2% | <1% |
| 13Manchester United | #14 | 12.3 | 0 | 0 | 24% | 56% | 56% | 26% | 11% | 5% | 2% |
| 14Bodo/Glimt | #17 | 12.2 | 0 | 0 | 23% | 57% | 52% | 25% | 10% | 4% | 2% |
| 15PSV Eindhoven | #22 | 11.9 | 0 | 0 | 21% | 56% | 49% | 20% | 7% | 3% | <1% |
| 16AS Roma | #28 | 11.6 | 0 | 0 | 18% | 58% | 48% | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% |
| 17Real Betis | #66 | 11.5 | 3 | 1 | 13% | 63% | 36% | 10% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 18Fenerbahce | #45 | 11.4 | 0 | 0 | 16% | 57% | 39% | 13% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| 19AEK Athens | #49 | 11.3 | 3 | 1 | 13% | 60% | 39% | 14% | 5% | 1% | <1% |
| 20FC Porto | #27 | 11.3 | 0 | 1 | 14% | 61% | 47% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% |
| 21RB Leipzig | #31 | 10.8 | 0 | 0 | 13% | 53% | 38% | 15% | 5% | 1% | <1% |
| 22Lens | #38 | 10.3 | 0 | 0 | 11% | 50% | 33% | 11% | 4% | 2% | <1% |
| 23Atlético Madrid | #26 | 9.8 | 0 | 1 | 8% | 51% | 35% | 14% | 5% | 2% | <1% |
| 24Como | #51 | 9.7 | 0 | 0 | 8% | 47% | 27% | 9% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 25Napoli | #42 | 9.4 | 0 | 1 | 6% | 50% | 28% | 11% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| 26Galatasaray | #32 | 9.4 | 0 | 1 | 6% | 47% | 27% | 9% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| 27Villarreal | #54 | 9.3 | 0 | 1 | 6% | 48% | 25% | 8% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 28Viking | #63 | 8.6 | 0 | 1 | 3% | 41% | 17% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 29Lille | #53 | 8.4 | 0 | 1 | 3% | 40% | 19% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 30Club Brugge | #35 | 8.3 | 0 | 1 | 3% | 38% | 21% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 31Feyenoord Rotterdam | #71 | 8.2 | 0 | 1 | 3% | 36% | 17% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 32Shakhtar Donetsk | #118 | 8.2 | 0 | 0 | 4% | 35% | 13% | 3% | <1% | <1% | — |
| 33LASK Linz | #199 | 6.4 | 0 | 1 | <1% | 19% | 5% | <1% | <1% | <1% | — |
| 34SABAH FKEstimated rating · limited evidence | — | 6.4 | 0 | 0 | <1% | 20% | 5% | <1% | <1% | <1% | — |
| 35Slavia Prague | — | 5.4 | 0 | 0 | <1% | 12% | 2% | <1% | <1% | — | — |
| 36Slovan Bratislava | — | 4.1 | 0 | 1 | <1% | 5% | <1% | — | — | — | — |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.