Pollster record · how records are scored
Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research
Method: text/web mix · scored polls from 2004 to 2024
Versus the field
−0.06
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk +0.21; 19% own record)
Average miss
5.3
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.4
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
59
35 races · 3 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 9 | 4.8 | −1.5 | D+2.4 |
| 2006 | 8 | 6.1 | −0.3 | R+0.9 |
| 2008 | 7 | 6.1 | +1.0 | R+1.6 |
| 2010 | 8 | 6.0 | +1.6 | R+2.3 |
| 2012 | 4 | 1.5 | −2.0 | D+1.8 |
| 2014 | 2 | 7.0 | +2.6 | D+0.6 |
| 2016 | 6 | 8.3 | +3.6 | D+5.3 |
| 2018 | 4 | 4.9 | +1.6 | D+5.7 |
| 2020 | 3 | 4.4 | −2.7 | R+2.3 |
| 2022 | 4 | 2.7 | −2.4 | D+4.3 |
| 2024 | 4 | 3.7 | −0.0 | D+0.1 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Governor PA | Josh Shapiro v. Stacy Garrity | D+25 |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Governor PA | Josh Shapiro v. Stacy Garrity | D+22 |
| Mar 1, 2026 | Governor PA | Josh Shapiro v. Stacy Garrity | D+20 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2024 | 2024 Senate, PA | D+1 | R+0.2 | D+1.2 | D+4.7 |
| Oct 20, 2024 | 2024 President, PA | R+1 | R+1.7 | D+0.7 | D+2.6 |
| Sep 15, 2024 | 2024 Senate, PA | D+8 | R+0.2 | D+8.2 | D+4.7 |
| Sep 15, 2024 | 2024 President, PA | D+3 | R+1.7 | D+4.7 | D+2.6 |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 2022 Governor, PA | D+22 | D+14.8 | D+7.2 | R+4.2 |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 2022 Senate, PA | D+4 | D+4.9 | R+0.9 | R+2.7 |
| Sep 25, 2022 | 2022 Governor, PA | D+14 | D+14.8 | R+0.8 | R+4.2 |
| Sep 25, 2022 | 2022 Senate, PA | D+3 | D+4.9 | R+1.9 | R+2.7 |
| Oct 25, 2020 | 2020 President, PA | D+6 | D+1.2 | D+4.8 | D+4.1 |
| Oct 18, 2020 | 2020 House, PA-7 | D+7 | D+3.7 | D+3.5 | D+11.8 |
| Sep 20, 2020 | 2020 President, PA | D+6 | D+1.2 | D+4.8 | D+4.1 |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 2018 Governor, PA | D+26 | D+17.1 | D+8.9 | R+2.6 |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 2018 Senate, PA | D+15 | D+13.1 | D+1.9 | D+1.0 |
| Sep 23, 2018 | 2018 Senate, PA | D+17 | D+13.1 | D+3.9 | D+1.0 |
| Sep 23, 2018 | 2018 Governor, PA | D+22 | D+17.1 | D+4.9 | R+2.6 |
| Oct 28, 2016 | 2016 Senate, PA | D+12 | R+1.4 | D+13.4 | D+2.1 |
| Oct 28, 2016 | 2016 President, PA | D+11 | R+0.7 | D+11.7 | D+5.1 |
| Sep 30, 2016 | 2016 President, PA | D+9 | R+0.7 | D+9.7 | D+5.1 |
| Sep 30, 2016 | 2016 Senate, PA | D+6 | R+1.4 | D+7.4 | D+2.1 |
| Sep 16, 2016 | 2016 Senate, CO | D+11 | D+5.7 | D+5.3 | D+4.2 |
| Sep 16, 2016 | 2016 President, CO | D+7 | D+4.9 | D+2.1 | R+0.9 |
| Oct 23, 2014 | 2014 Governor, PA | D+7 | D+9.9 | R+2.9 | D+3.6 |
| Sep 19, 2014 | 2014 Governor, PA | D+21 | D+9.9 | D+11.1 | D+3.6 |
| Oct 25, 2012 | 2012 Senate, PA | D+9 | D+9.1 | R+0.1 | R+2.6 |
| Oct 25, 2012 | 2012 President, PA | D+4 | D+5.4 | R+1.4 | D+0.6 |
| Sep 20, 2012 | 2012 Senate, PA | D+10 | D+9.1 | D+0.9 | R+2.6 |
| Sep 20, 2012 | 2012 President, PA | D+9 | D+5.4 | D+3.6 | D+0.6 |
| Oct 21, 2010 | 2010 Senate, PA | R+8 | R+2.0 | R+6.0 | R+2.6 |
| Oct 21, 2010 | 2010 Governor, PA | R+16 | R+9.0 | R+7.0 | D+1.5 |
| Oct 8, 2010 | 2010 House, PA-7 | R+3 | R+11.0 | D+8.0 | D+6.5 |
| Oct 7, 2010 | 2010 House, PA-11 | R+7 | R+9.4 | D+2.4 | D+3.2 |
| Sep 23, 2010 | 2010 Senate, PA | R+9 | R+2.0 | R+7.0 | R+2.6 |
| Sep 23, 2010 | 2010 Governor, PA | R+4 | R+9.0 | D+5.0 | D+1.5 |
| Sep 16, 2010 | 2010 House, PA-3 | R+6 | R+11.4 | D+5.4 | D+0.2 |
| Sep 16, 2010 | 2010 House, PA-8 | R+14 | R+7.0 | R+7.0 | D+4.9 |
| Oct 23, 2008 | 2008 President, PA | D+13 | D+10.3 | D+2.7 | R+2.3 |
| Oct 16, 2008 | 2008 President | D+5 | D+7.4 | R+2.4 | R+2.7 |
| Oct 10, 2008 | 2008 House, PA-11 | R+5 | D+3.3 | R+8.3 | R+5.1 |
| Oct 2, 2008 | 2008 House, PA-10 | D+15 | D+12.7 | D+2.3 | R+1.4 |
| Sep 25, 2008 | 2008 President, PA | D+5 | D+10.3 | R+5.3 | R+2.3 |
| Sep 18, 2008 | 2008 President | R+2 | D+7.4 | R+9.4 | R+2.7 |
| Sep 11, 2008 | 2008 House, PA-11 | R+9 | D+3.3 | R+12.3 | R+5.1 |
| Oct 27, 2006 | 2006 Governor, PA | D+25 | D+20.7 | D+4.3 | D+0.7 |
| Oct 27, 2006 | 2006 Senate, PA | D+15 | D+17.4 | R+2.4 | R+5.1 |
| Oct 21, 2006 | 2006 House, PA-8 | R+9 | D+0.6 | R+9.6 | R+0.8 |
| Oct 21, 2006 | 2006 House, PA-10 | D+12 | D+5.9 | D+6.1 | D+0.8 |
| Sep 24, 2006 | 2006 House, PA-7 | D+1 | D+12.8 | R+11.8 | R+14.3 |
| Sep 22, 2006 | 2006 House, PA-6 | R+3 | R+1.3 | R+1.7 | D+2.4 |
| Sep 15, 2006 | 2006 Senate, PA | D+7 | D+17.4 | R+10.4 | R+5.1 |
| Sep 15, 2006 | 2006 Governor, PA | D+18 | D+20.7 | R+2.7 | D+0.7 |
| Oct 26, 2004 | 2004 House, PA-13 | D+18 | D+14.5 | D+3.5 | — |
| Oct 21, 2004 | 2004 President, PA | D+5 | D+2.5 | D+2.5 | R+0.8 |
| Oct 21, 2004 | 2004 Senate, PA | R+21 | R+10.6 | R+10.4 | R+8.9 |
| Oct 2, 2004 | 2004 Senate, PA | R+9 | R+10.6 | D+1.6 | R+8.9 |
| Oct 2, 2004 | 2004 President, PA | D+6 | D+2.5 | D+3.5 | R+0.8 |
| Sep 18, 2004 | 2004 House, PA-13 | D+11 | D+14.5 | R+3.5 | — |
| Sep 12, 2004 | 2004 President, PA | Even | D+2.5 | R+2.5 | R+0.8 |
| Sep 12, 2004 | 2004 Senate, PA | R+26 | R+10.6 | R+15.4 | R+8.9 |
| Sep 3, 2004 | 2004 House, PA-17 | D+20 | D+20.2 | R+0.2 | R+8.2 |