2026-27 projections
Europa League
Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Knockout stages use 4,000 simulations. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Oct 20, 2026
What these probabilities include
- League-phase GD/GF tiebreakers are followed by a random tie split; later UEFA criteria are approximated. Knockouts are drawn from league-phase ranks. Actual knockout-stage results are not yet supported.
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | Top 8 | 9–24 | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Benfica | #12 | 18.7 | 6 | 2 | 89% | 11% | 98% | 71% | 46% | 28% | 16% |
| 2Bayer Leverkusen | #17 | 18 | 6 | 2 | 84% | 16% | 96% | 69% | 43% | 25% | 13% |
| 3AFC Bournemouth | #21 | 17.9 | 6 | 2 | 82% | 18% | 95% | 66% | 41% | 23% | 13% |
| 4Juventus | #23 | 17.5 | 6 | 2 | 80% | 20% | 95% | 65% | 40% | 23% | 12% |
| 5Olympiacos | #50 | 16.5 | 6 | 2 | 64% | 35% | 88% | 53% | 27% | 13% | 6% |
| 6Lyon | #47 | 15.4 | 6 | 2 | 52% | 46% | 82% | 43% | 20% | 9% | 4% |
| 7Sunderland | #106 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 46% | 51% | 73% | 31% | 12% | 4% | 1% |
| 8Ferencvaros | #102 | 14.3 | 6 | 2 | 38% | 58% | 66% | 27% | 10% | 4% | 1% |
| 9Union St.-Gilloise | #36 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 38% | 57% | 78% | 47% | 24% | 12% | 6% |
| 10Crystal Palace | #34 | 13.9 | 3 | 2 | 40% | 55% | 77% | 44% | 22% | 11% | 6% |
| 11AC Milan | #35 | 13.7 | 3 | 2 | 36% | 60% | 78% | 44% | 23% | 12% | 6% |
| 12Besiktas | #96 | 13.3 | 6 | 2 | 28% | 66% | 64% | 26% | 10% | 4% | 1% |
| 13Stade Rennais | #74 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 26% | 65% | 63% | 27% | 10% | 4% | 2% |
| 14Omonia Nicosia | — | 11.9 | 6 | 2 | 15% | 71% | 43% | 13% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| 15AZ Alkmaar | #121 | 11.7 | 3 | 2 | 14% | 69% | 46% | 16% | 6% | 2% | <1% |
| 16RB Salzburg | #192 | 11.2 | 3 | 2 | 10% | 67% | 37% | 11% | 4% | <1% | <1% |
| 17Celtic | #18 | 11.2 | 0 | 2 | 12% | 66% | 62% | 37% | 22% | 13% | 7% |
| 18Dinamo Zagreb | #247 | 10.5 | 4 | 2 | 7% | 62% | 32% | 8% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 19Jagiellonia Bialystok | #209 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 7% | 60% | 31% | 9% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 20Sparta Prague | — | 9.9 | 4 | 2 | 6% | 59% | 28% | 8% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 21Real Sociedad | #83 | 9.5 | 1 | 2 | 5% | 57% | 35% | 13% | 5% | 2% | <1% |
| 22Torreense | — | 9.3 | 3 | 2 | 3% | 53% | 20% | 5% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 23Marseille | #55 | 9.2 | 0 | 2 | 3% | 53% | 36% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% |
| 24SK Sturm Graz | #227 | 8.8 | 1 | 2 | 2% | 48% | 20% | 6% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 25NEC Nijmegen | #239 | 8.7 | 1 | 2 | 2% | 44% | 17% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 26Lech Poznan | #105 | 8.2 | 0 | 2 | 1% | 39% | 20% | 7% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 27TSG Hoffenheim | #85 | 8.1 | 0 | 2 | 2% | 41% | 24% | 9% | 4% | 2% | <1% |
| 28OFI Crete | #405 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1% | 38% | 11% | 2% | <1% | — | — |
| 29Anderlecht | #187 | 7.9 | 0 | 2 | 2% | 41% | 19% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 30Viktoria Plzen | #151 | 7.7 | 0 | 2 | <1% | 36% | 17% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 31Celta Vigo | #103 | 7.6 | 0 | 2 | 1% | 37% | 19% | 8% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| 32NK Celje | #308 | 7.3 | 0 | 2 | <1% | 31% | 10% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 33Levski Sofia | — | 6.8 | 1 | 2 | <1% | 26% | 8% | 2% | <1% | <1% | — |
| 34Lillestrom | #374 | 6.3 | 1 | 2 | <1% | 21% | 6% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 35Hapoel Be'er | — | 6.3 | 1 | 2 | <1% | 20% | 6% | 1% | <1% | <1% | — |
| 36Ararat-Armenia | — | 3.8 | 0 | 2 | <1% | 5% | <1% | <1% | — | — | — |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.