2026-27 projections
Europa League
Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Knockout stages use 4,000 simulations. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Nov 9, 2026
What these probabilities include
- League-phase GD/GF tiebreakers are followed by a random tie split; later UEFA criteria are approximated. Knockouts are drawn from league-phase ranks. Actual knockout-stage results are not yet supported.
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | Top 8 | 9–24 | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AFC Bournemouth | #10 | 20.9 | 12 | 4 | 99% | <1% | >99% | 74% | 49% | 30% | 17% |
| 2Benfica | #11 | 20.5 | 12 | 4 | 98% | 2% | >99% | 74% | 49% | 29% | 16% |
| 3Juventus | #25 | 18.1 | 10 | 4 | 90% | 10% | 97% | 67% | 39% | 22% | 12% |
| 4Ferencvaros | #66 | 18 | 12 | 4 | 87% | 13% | 94% | 49% | 20% | 8% | 3% |
| 5Olympiacos | #42 | 17.4 | 10 | 4 | 80% | 20% | 94% | 58% | 31% | 16% | 7% |
| 6Union St.-Gilloise | #30 | 16.6 | 10 | 4 | 75% | 25% | 92% | 61% | 34% | 18% | 10% |
| 7Bayer Leverkusen | #20 | 16.6 | 9 | 4 | 78% | 22% | 94% | 63% | 36% | 20% | 11% |
| 8Lyon | #58 | 13.4 | 7 | 4 | 24% | 71% | 69% | 33% | 15% | 6% | 3% |
| 9Besiktas | #83 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 23% | 73% | 62% | 26% | 9% | 3% | 2% |
| 10Stade Rennais | #82 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 25% | 69% | 61% | 25% | 9% | 3% | 1% |
| 11NEC Nijmegen | #171 | 12.9 | 7 | 4 | 19% | 74% | 50% | 15% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| 12Sunderland | #113 | 12.7 | 7 | 4 | 16% | 74% | 55% | 21% | 7% | 3% | <1% |
| 13Crystal Palace | #40 | 12.3 | 5 | 4 | 18% | 72% | 65% | 32% | 16% | 8% | 3% |
| 14Levski Sofia | — | 11.8 | 7 | 4 | 10% | 77% | 42% | 12% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| 15AZ Alkmaar | #99 | 11.8 | 6 | 4 | 12% | 76% | 52% | 19% | 7% | 2% | <1% |
| 16Anderlecht | #139 | 11.3 | 6 | 4 | 10% | 74% | 44% | 16% | 5% | 2% | <1% |
| 17Dinamo Zagreb | #246 | 11.1 | 7 | 4 | 7% | 70% | 32% | 8% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 18Real Sociedad | #65 | 11.1 | 5 | 4 | 9% | 76% | 53% | 23% | 10% | 4% | 2% |
| 19Celtic | #28 | 10.4 | 3 | 4 | 3% | 68% | 51% | 28% | 15% | 8% | 4% |
| 20AC Milan | #39 | 10.4 | 3 | 4 | 3% | 73% | 51% | 24% | 12% | 6% | 3% |
| 21RB Salzburg | #156 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2% | 62% | 29% | 9% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 22TSG Hoffenheim | #73 | 9.7 | 4 | 4 | 3% | 61% | 37% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% |
| 23OFI Crete | #379 | 9.4 | 6 | 4 | 2% | 53% | 15% | 3% | <1% | <1% | — |
| 24Marseille | #55 | 9.4 | 3 | 4 | 1% | 54% | 33% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% |
| 25Omonia Nicosia | #338 | 9.1 | 6 | 4 | 1% | 46% | 15% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 26NK Celje | #275 | 9.1 | 4 | 4 | 1% | 49% | 16% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 27Celta Vigo | #101 | 9.1 | 3 | 4 | <1% | 55% | 29% | 10% | 4% | 2% | <1% |
| 28SK Sturm Graz | #212 | 9 | 4 | 4 | <1% | 47% | 20% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 29Torreense | — | 8.2 | 6 | 4 | <1% | 28% | 6% | <1% | <1% | <1% | — |
| 30Sparta Prague | #263 | 8 | 4 | 4 | <1% | 36% | 13% | 3% | <1% | <1% | — |
| 31Viktoria Plzen | #158 | 7.3 | 3 | 4 | <1% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 32Lech Poznan | #104 | 7.1 | 1 | 4 | — | 21% | 11% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 33Jagiellonia Bialystok | #253 | 7 | 3 | 4 | <1% | 22% | 8% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 34Lillestrom | #414 | 3.8 | 1 | 4 | — | 2% | <1% | <1% | — | — | — |
| 35Hapoel Be'er | — | 2.8 | 1 | 4 | — | <1% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 36Ararat-Armenia | — | 1.7 | 0 | 4 | — | <1% | — | — | — | — | — |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.