Pollster record · how records are scored
FM3 Research
Method: live phone · scored polls from 1998 to 2022 · 97% of scored polls were for a party or campaign
Versus the field
+0.19
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk +2.02; 9% own record)
Average miss
6.9
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.3
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
29
23 races · 5 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | 4 | 4.2 | +0.7 | R+1.5 |
| 2000 | 2 | 2.7 | −5.2 | D+5.8 |
| 2002 | 5 | 14.5 | +8.1 | D+5.7 |
| 2004 | 5 | 4.3 | −0.1 | R+1.7 |
| 2006 | 1 | 5.9 | +3.7 | D+3.1 |
| 2010 | 4 | 3.6 | +1.0 | D+2.0 |
| 2012 | 2 | 10.4 | +5.8 | D+5.4 |
| 2014 | 1 | 2.1 | −6.4 | R+0.9 |
| 2018 | 1 | 6.5 | +0.1 | — |
| 2020 | 3 | 10.8 | +6.2 | D+4.0 |
| 2022 | 1 | 1.4 | −2.6 | R+2.4 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 12, 2026 | OH-10 | Kristina Knickerbocker v. Mike Turner | R+7 |
| Jul 1, 2026 | NY-17 | Cait Conley v. Mike Lawler | D+6 |
| Jun 25, 2026 | WI-3 | Rebecca Cooke v. Derrick Van Orden | D+4 |
| May 31, 2026 | MO-2 | Fred Wellman v. Ann Wagner | R+3 |
| Feb 4, 2026 | Governor OR | Tina Kotek v. Christine Drazan | D+5 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2022 | 2022 Governor, ORD-ALIGNED | D+2 | D+3.4 | R+1.4 | R+2.9 |
| Oct 14, 2020 | 2020 Senate, ALD-ALIGNED | D+1 | R+20.4 | D+21.4 | D+8.5 |
| Oct 4, 2020 | 2020 President, Nebraska CD-2D-ALIGNED | D+11 | D+6.5 | D+4.5 | R+2.4 |
| Oct 4, 2020 | 2020 House, NE-2D-ALIGNED | D+2 | R+4.6 | D+6.6 | D+2.8 |
| Sep 20, 2018 | 2018 House, WA-5D-ALIGNED | R+3 | R+9.5 | D+6.5 | — |
| Oct 6, 2014 | 2014 House, UT-4D-ALIGNED | R+3 | R+5.1 | D+2.1 | R+0.9 |
| Oct 14, 2012 | 2012 House, CA-21D-ALIGNED | R+4 | R+15.5 | D+11.5 | R+0.6 |
| Sep 25, 2012 | 2012 House, WI-7D-ALIGNED | R+3 | R+12.3 | D+9.3 | D+2.8 |
| Oct 9, 2010 | 2010 Senate, WI | Even | R+4.8 | D+4.8 | R+1.2 |
| Oct 5, 2010 | 2010 Governor, WID-ALIGNED | Even | R+5.8 | D+5.8 | R+2.0 |
| Oct 5, 2010 | 2010 Senate, WID-ALIGNED | R+1 | R+4.8 | D+3.8 | R+1.2 |
| Oct 4, 2010 | 2010 House, WA-8D-ALIGNED | R+4 | R+4.1 | D+0.1 | R+0.9 |
| Sep 16, 2006 | 2006 House, WI-8D-ALIGNED | D+8 | D+2.1 | D+5.9 | R+1.1 |
| Oct 20, 2004 | 2004 House, CO-3D-ALIGNED | D+17 | D+4.0 | D+13.0 | D+4.9 |
| Oct 20, 2004 | 2004 President, COD-ALIGNED | Even | R+4.7 | D+4.7 | D+0.4 |
| Oct 20, 2004 | 2004 Senate, COD-ALIGNED | D+5 | D+4.8 | D+0.2 | R+1.6 |
| Sep 28, 2004 | 2004 Senate, WAD-ALIGNED | D+15 | D+12.2 | D+2.8 | D+3.3 |
| Sep 9, 2004 | 2004 Senate, WAD-ALIGNED | D+13 | D+12.2 | D+0.8 | D+3.3 |
| Oct 18, 2002 | 2002 Senate, TXD-ALIGNED | D+1 | R+12.0 | D+13.0 | D+4.0 |
| Oct 18, 2002 | 2002 Governor, TXD-ALIGNED | R+3 | R+17.8 | D+14.8 | D+6.4 |
| Oct 15, 2002 | 2002 Senate, TXD-ALIGNED | D+2 | R+12.0 | D+14.0 | D+4.0 |
| Oct 9, 2002 | 2002 Governor, TXD-ALIGNED | R+3 | R+17.8 | D+14.8 | D+6.4 |
| Sep 23, 2002 | 2002 Senate, TXD-ALIGNED | D+4 | R+12.0 | D+16.0 | D+4.0 |
| Oct 23, 2000 | 2000 House, CA-20D-ALIGNED | D+11 | D+6.9 | D+4.1 | R+9.9 |
| Sep 7, 2000 | 2000 President, CAD-ALIGNED | D+13 | D+11.8 | D+1.2 | R+4.2 |
| Oct 21, 1998 | 1998 Senate, WID-ALIGNED | D+1 | D+2.1 | R+1.1 | R+0.1 |
| Oct 12, 1998 | 1998 Senate, NVD-ALIGNED | D+5 | D+0.1 | D+4.9 | D+2.6 |
| Sep 25, 1998 | 1998 Senate, WAD-ALIGNED | D+13 | D+16.8 | R+3.8 | R+7.9 |
| Sep 22, 1998 | 1998 Senate, NVD-ALIGNED | D+7 | D+0.1 | D+6.9 | D+2.6 |