Pollster record · how records are scored
DHM Research
Method: live phone mix · scored polls from 1998 to 2022
Versus the field
−0.08
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −0.42; 8% own record). A thin record: too few scored polls to say much.
Average miss
4.4
points on the margin, as published
House effect
None
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
27
17 races · 1 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | 2 | 21.7 | +12.6 | — |
| 2000 | 2 | 0.6 | −4.5 | D+2.4 |
| 2002 | 4 | 2.8 | +0.7 | R+1.8 |
| 2004 | 2 | 2.0 | −2.4 | R+0.1 |
| 2006 | 2 | 2.0 | −2.3 | D+1.7 |
| 2008 | 4 | 4.3 | +0.1 | D+0.9 |
| 2010 | 2 | 3.0 | +1.1 | D+0.2 |
| 2012 | 1 | 5.1 | −0.6 | D+0.8 |
| 2014 | 1 | 2.1 | −2.7 | D+5.0 |
| 2016 | 4 | 3.9 | +0.1 | R+0.8 |
| 2018 | 1 | 1.4 | −2.7 | D+0.5 |
| 2020 | 1 | 4.1 | −1.7 | R+7.5 |
| 2022 | 1 | 4.9 | +0.4 | R+1.9 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 2026 | Governor OR | Tina Kotek v. Christine Drazan | R+2 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2022 | 2022 Governor, OR | R+2 | D+3.4 | R+4.9 | R+3.0 |
| Sep 8, 2020 | 2020 President, OR | D+12 | D+16.1 | R+4.1 | D+3.4 |
| Oct 11, 2018 | 2018 Governor, OR | D+5 | D+6.4 | R+1.4 | R+1.9 |
| Oct 27, 2016 | 2016 Governor, OR | D+9 | D+7.2 | D+1.8 | D+2.3 |
| Oct 27, 2016 | 2016 President, OR | D+7 | D+11.0 | R+4.0 | R+0.9 |
| Oct 10, 2016 | 2016 Governor, OR | D+13 | D+7.2 | D+5.8 | D+2.3 |
| Oct 10, 2016 | 2016 President, OR | D+7 | D+11.0 | R+4.0 | R+0.9 |
| Oct 9, 2014 | 2014 Senate, OR | D+21 | D+18.9 | D+2.1 | R+2.8 |
| Oct 27, 2012 | 2012 President, OR | D+7 | D+12.1 | R+5.1 | R+5.8 |
| Oct 28, 2010 | 2010 Governor, OR | D+3 | D+1.5 | D+1.5 | R+1.7 |
| Oct 24, 2010 | 2010 Governor, OR | R+3 | D+1.5 | R+4.5 | R+1.7 |
| Oct 24, 2008 | 2008 President, OR | D+19 | D+16.3 | D+2.7 | R+4.6 |
| Oct 24, 2008 | 2008 Senate, OR | D+5 | D+3.4 | D+1.6 | R+1.5 |
| Sep 13, 2008 | 2008 Senate, OR | R+3 | D+3.4 | R+6.4 | R+1.5 |
| Sep 13, 2008 | 2008 President, OR | D+10 | D+16.3 | R+6.3 | R+4.6 |
| Oct 30, 2006 | 2006 Governor, OR | D+7 | D+8.0 | R+1.0 | R+3.6 |
| Sep 24, 2006 | 2006 Governor, OR | D+5 | D+8.0 | R+3.0 | R+3.6 |
| Oct 26, 2004 | 2004 President, OR | D+6 | D+4.2 | D+1.8 | R+0.1 |
| Sep 26, 2004 | 2004 President, OR | D+2 | D+4.2 | R+2.2 | R+0.1 |
| Oct 27, 2002 | 2002 Senate, OR | R+19 | R+16.6 | R+2.4 | R+0.1 |
| Oct 27, 2002 | 2002 Governor, OR | D+6 | D+2.9 | D+3.1 | D+2.5 |
| Oct 4, 2002 | 2002 Governor, OR | D+4 | D+2.9 | D+1.1 | D+2.5 |
| Oct 4, 2002 | 2002 Senate, OR | R+21 | R+16.6 | R+4.4 | R+0.1 |
| Oct 27, 2000 | 2000 President, OR | D+1 | D+0.4 | D+0.6 | R+1.8 |
| Sep 8, 2000 | 2000 President, OR | D+1 | D+0.4 | D+0.6 | R+1.8 |
| Oct 3, 1998 | 1998 Governor, OR | D+53 | D+34.4 | D+18.6 | — |
| Oct 3, 1998 | 1998 Senate, OR | D+52 | D+27.3 | D+24.7 | — |