Pollster record · how records are scored
Keating Research
Method: live phone mix · scored polls from 2012 to 2024 · 42% of scored polls were for a party or campaign
Versus the field
−0.09
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −0.91; 5% own record). A thin record: too few scored polls to say much.
Average miss
3.3
points on the margin, as published
House effect
None
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
12
8 races · 1 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 3 | 1.4 | −2.8 | D+1.7 |
| 2014 | 3 | 6.9 | +1.3 | R+0.9 |
| 2016 | 3 | 3.8 | +0.1 | D+3.1 |
| 2022 | 1 | 1.8 | −3.4 | R+7.0 |
| 2024 | 2 | 0.5 | −2.8 | R+2.4 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 2026 | CO-3 | Dwayne Romero v. Jeff Hurd | R+1 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2024 | 2024 President, CO | D+12 | D+11.0 | D+1.0 | D+2.9 |
| Sep 14, 2024 | 2024 President, CO | D+11 | D+11.0 | Even | D+2.9 |
| Oct 2, 2022 | 2022 House, CO-3D-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+0.2 | R+1.8 | D+1.3 |
| Nov 2, 2016 | 2016 Senate, CO | D+11 | D+5.7 | D+5.3 | D+4.2 |
| Nov 2, 2016 | 2016 President, CO | D+5 | D+4.9 | D+0.1 | R+0.9 |
| Sep 28, 2016 | 2016 President, CO | D+11 | D+4.9 | D+6.1 | R+0.9 |
| Oct 22, 2014 | 2014 Senate, COD-ALIGNED | D+1 | R+1.9 | D+2.9 | R+0.9 |
| Oct 11, 2014 | 2014 House, CO-6D-ALIGNED | R+1 | R+8.9 | D+7.9 | — |
| Sep 18, 2014 | 2014 Governor, AZD-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+11.8 | D+9.8 | D+7.8 |
| Nov 3, 2012 | 2012 President, CO | D+4 | D+5.4 | R+1.4 | R+4.3 |
| Oct 23, 2012 | 2012 President, CO | D+3 | D+5.4 | R+2.4 | R+4.3 |
| Sep 10, 2012 | 2012 President, COD-ALIGNED | D+5 | D+5.4 | R+0.4 | R+4.3 |