Pollster record · how records are scored
Blueprint Polling
Method: live phone mix · scored polls from 2018 to 2024
Versus the field
−0.05
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −0.08; 7% own record). A thin record: too few scored polls to say much.
Average miss
3.5
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+0.4
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
9
9 races · 4 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 1 | 1.4 | −2.4 | R+2.6 |
| 2022 | 2 | 2.9 | −4.0 | R+0.9 |
| 2024 | 6 | 4.1 | +1.4 | R+3.6 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 28, 2026 | SC-7 | John Vincent v. Russell Fry | R+4 |
| Mar 8, 2026 | FL-27 | Eliott Rodriguez v. María Elvira Salazar | R+3 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2024 | 2024 President, MD | D+23 | D+28.5 | R+6.0 | R+0.3 |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 2024 President, MN | D+5 | D+4.2 | D+1.2 | D+1.7 |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 2024 President, VA | D+1 | D+5.8 | R+5.1 | D+1.7 |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 2024 Senate, MD | D+9 | D+11.8 | R+3.2 | D+1.2 |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 2024 Senate, MN | D+17 | D+15.7 | D+1.5 | R+3.9 |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 2024 Senate, VA | D+2 | D+8.9 | R+7.4 | D+2.2 |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 2022 Governor, OK | R+9 | R+13.7 | D+5.2 | D+11.1 |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 2022 Governor, OR | D+4 | D+3.4 | D+0.6 | R+3.5 |
| Sep 12, 2018 | 2018 Senate, TXD-ALIGNED | R+4 | R+2.6 | R+1.4 | R+2.7 |