Pollster record · how records are scored
Normington, Petts & Associates
Method: live phone mix · scored polls from 2002 to 2024 · 100% of scored polls were for a party or campaign
Versus the field
+0.02
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk +0.32; 18% own record)
Average miss
8.0
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.3
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
56
53 races · 8 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | 2 | 9.0 | +3.3 | D+2.6 |
| 2004 | 3 | 13.1 | +5.5 | D+1.1 |
| 2006 | 10 | 5.9 | −0.8 | D+1.2 |
| 2008 | 7 | 10.2 | −1.0 | D+1.6 |
| 2010 | 8 | 10.0 | +2.3 | D+4.5 |
| 2012 | 2 | 7.3 | +1.7 | D+5.5 |
| 2014 | 5 | 6.3 | −2.0 | Even |
| 2016 | 10 | 7.4 | −0.8 | R+1.4 |
| 2018 | 2 | 1.1 | −2.9 | R+2.3 |
| 2020 | 5 | 10.3 | +4.7 | D+2.1 |
| 2024 | 2 | 3.3 | +0.7 | R+1.1 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | TX-35 | Johnny Garcia v. Carlos De La Cruz | R+1 |
| Jul 27, 2026 | TX-15 | Bobby Pulido v. Monica De La Cruz | D+6 |
| Jun 11, 2026 | AZ-6 | JoAnna Mendoza v. Juan Ciscomani | D+2 |
| Apr 23, 2026 | PA-10 | Janelle Stelson v. Scott Perry | D+6 |
| Sep 16, 2025 | Generic ballot | D+2 | |
| Mar 19, 2025 | Generic ballot | Even |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2024 House, CA-45D-ALIGNED | D+3 | D+0.2 | D+2.8 | R+0.3 |
| Oct 7, 2024 | 2024 House, WI-3D-ALIGNED | D+1 | R+2.7 | D+3.7 | D+1.2 |
| Oct 14, 2020 | 2020 House, MN-2D-ALIGNED | D+18 | D+2.3 | D+15.7 | — |
| Sep 23, 2020 | 2020 House, CA-25D-ALIGNED | D+6 | R+0.1 | D+6.1 | R+1.8 |
| Sep 14, 2020 | 2020 House, MO-2D-ALIGNED | Even | R+6.4 | D+6.4 | D+6.4 |
| Sep 3, 2020 | 2020 House, OK-5D-ALIGNED | D+8 | R+4.1 | D+12.1 | D+2.1 |
| Sep 3, 2020 | 2020 House, OH-1D-ALIGNED | D+4 | R+7.1 | D+11.1 | D+5.1 |
| Sep 23, 2018 | 2018 House, CO-6D-ALIGNED | D+11 | D+11.2 | R+0.2 | R+3.7 |
| Sep 20, 2018 | 2018 House, VA-7D-ALIGNED | Even | D+1.9 | R+1.9 | R+1.7 |
| Oct 12, 2016 | 2016 House, IN-9D-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+13.7 | D+11.7 | D+9.7 |
| Oct 10, 2016 | 2016 House, IA-1D-ALIGNED | R+1 | R+7.7 | D+6.7 | D+1.4 |
| Oct 2, 2016 | 2016 President, M2D-ALIGNED | D+4 | R+10.3 | D+14.3 | D+7.4 |
| Oct 2, 2016 | 2016 House, ME-2D-ALIGNED | D+1 | R+9.6 | D+10.6 | D+7.6 |
| Sep 28, 2016 | 2016 President, ILD-ALIGNED | D+17 | D+17.1 | R+0.1 | D+0.2 |
| Sep 28, 2016 | 2016 House, IL-10D-ALIGNED | D+5 | D+5.2 | R+0.2 | R+3.7 |
| Sep 28, 2016 | 2016 Senate, ILD-ALIGNED | D+9 | D+15.1 | R+6.1 | R+3.9 |
| Sep 21, 2016 | 2016 President, M2D-ALIGNED | R+4 | R+10.3 | D+6.3 | D+7.4 |
| Sep 21, 2016 | 2016 House, ME-2D-ALIGNED | Even | R+9.6 | D+9.6 | D+7.6 |
| Sep 20, 2016 | 2016 House, NH-1D-ALIGNED | D+10 | D+1.3 | D+8.7 | D+3.0 |
| Oct 15, 2014 | 2014 House, ME-2D-ALIGNED | D+8 | R+5.2 | D+13.2 | D+2.9 |
| Oct 7, 2014 | 2014 Governor, MED-ALIGNED | D+2 | R+4.8 | D+6.8 | D+4.4 |
| Oct 5, 2014 | 2014 House, MA-6D-ALIGNED | D+12 | D+13.8 | R+1.8 | R+10.4 |
| Sep 5, 2014 | 2014 House, NH-2D-ALIGNED | D+6 | D+10.0 | R+4.0 | R+5.7 |
| Sep 5, 2014 | 2014 House, NH-1D-ALIGNED | D+2 | R+3.6 | D+5.6 | D+9.0 |
| Oct 8, 2012 | 2012 House, ME-2D-ALIGNED | D+25 | D+16.4 | D+8.6 | R+0.7 |
| Sep 18, 2012 | 2012 House, WI-8D-ALIGNED | R+6 | R+12.0 | D+6.0 | — |
| Oct 23, 2010 | 2010 House, CA-20D-ALIGNED | D+6 | D+3.4 | D+2.6 | R+17.1 |
| Oct 17, 2010 | 2010 Senate, KYD-ALIGNED | D+2 | R+11.5 | D+13.5 | D+4.5 |
| Oct 5, 2010 | 2010 Senate, PAD-ALIGNED | R+1 | R+2.0 | D+1.0 | R+2.8 |
| Oct 4, 2010 | 2010 House, TX-17D-ALIGNED | R+4 | R+25.2 | D+21.2 | D+12.5 |
| Oct 3, 2010 | 2010 House, IA-3D-ALIGNED | D+8 | D+4.2 | D+3.8 | D+4.3 |
| Sep 26, 2010 | 2010 House, AZ-5D-ALIGNED | D+3 | R+8.8 | D+11.8 | D+5.4 |
| Sep 22, 2010 | 2010 House, SD-1D-ALIGNED | D+13 | R+2.2 | D+15.2 | D+2.4 |
| Sep 7, 2010 | 2010 House, CO-4D-ALIGNED | Even | R+11.1 | D+11.1 | D+3.4 |
| Oct 15, 2008 | 2008 House, IL-10D-ALIGNED | R+6 | R+5.1 | R+0.9 | D+0.1 |
| Oct 15, 2008 | 2008 House, IL-11D-ALIGNED | D+21 | D+23.9 | R+2.9 | R+14.4 |
| Oct 14, 2008 | 2008 House, VA-2D-ALIGNED | R+5 | D+4.9 | R+9.9 | — |
| Oct 8, 2008 | 2008 House, WA-8D-ALIGNED | D+5 | R+5.6 | D+10.6 | D+5.6 |
| Oct 7, 2008 | 2008 House, LA-6D-ALIGNED | D+17 | R+7.8 | D+24.8 | D+19.1 |
| Sep 29, 2008 | 2008 House, MN-3D-ALIGNED | D+5 | R+7.6 | D+12.6 | D+6.6 |
| Sep 21, 2008 | 2008 House, VA-2D-ALIGNED | R+5 | D+4.9 | R+9.9 | — |
| Oct 24, 2006 | 2006 Senate, NJD-ALIGNED | D+9 | D+16.0 | R+7.0 | R+11.4 |
| Oct 23, 2006 | 2006 House, IL-6D-ALIGNED | D+1 | R+2.7 | D+3.7 | D+3.3 |
| Oct 18, 2006 | 2006 House, AZ-5D-ALIGNED | R+1 | D+4.0 | R+5.0 | R+9.1 |
| Oct 11, 2006 | 2006 House, CT-4D-ALIGNED | D+3 | R+3.4 | D+6.4 | D+0.5 |
| Oct 11, 2006 | 2006 House, IL-8D-ALIGNED | D+16 | D+6.9 | D+9.1 | D+3.4 |
| Oct 10, 2006 | 2006 Senate, MOD-ALIGNED | D+5 | D+2.3 | D+2.7 | R+0.3 |
| Oct 9, 2006 | 2006 House, TX-17D-ALIGNED | D+21 | D+17.8 | D+3.2 | R+1.4 |
| Oct 8, 2006 | 2006 House, PA-10D-ALIGNED | D+14 | D+5.9 | D+8.1 | D+1.3 |
| Oct 7, 2006 | 2006 House, IA-1D-ALIGNED | D+11 | D+11.9 | R+0.9 | R+6.4 |
| Sep 20, 2006 | 2006 House, AZ-8D-ALIGNED | D+25 | D+12.2 | D+12.8 | D+2.0 |
| Oct 12, 2004 | 2004 House, TX-17D-ALIGNED | D+10 | D+3.8 | D+6.2 | — |
| Oct 6, 2004 | 2004 House, IL-8D-ALIGNED | R+2 | D+3.4 | R+5.4 | R+10.3 |
| Sep 8, 2004 | 2004 House, TX-1D-ALIGNED | D+4 | R+23.8 | D+27.8 | — |
| Oct 16, 2002 | 2002 Senate, TXD-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+12.0 | D+10.0 | D+4.6 |
| Sep 22, 2002 | 2002 House, ME-2D-ALIGNED | D+12 | D+4.0 | D+8.0 | D+0.3 |