2026-27 projections
DFB-Pokal
Season outcomes from 4,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Sep 28, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Undrawn rounds and lower-division strengths are approximated. Aggregate placeholder rows represent several clubs. Some hosting and entry/bracket constraints are simplified. Completed first legs are retained. Extra time uses proportional scoring rates and penalties are a 50/50 split.
| Club | World | Enters | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bayern Munich | #1 | R1 | 90% | 75% | 61% | 48% | 36% |
| 2Bayer Leverkusen | #20 | R1 | 94% | 62% | 39% | 22% | 11% |
| 3Borussia Dortmund | #16 | R1 | 80% | 53% | 32% | 19% | 10% |
| 4Hannover 96 | — | R1 | 83% | 47% | 24% | 11% | 5% |
| 5SSV Jeddeloh II | — | R1 | 81% | 43% | 22% | 11% | 4% |
| 6Dynamo Dresden | — | R1 | 77% | 41% | 21% | 10% | 4% |
| 7VfB Stuttgart | #37 | R1 | 63% | 37% | 20% | 10% | 4% |
| 8RB Leipzig | #36 | R1 | 56% | 33% | 18% | 9% | 4% |
| 9Mainz | #65 | R1 | 62% | 32% | 16% | 7% | 3% |
| 10SC Freiburg | #66 | R1 | 66% | 35% | 16% | 7% | 3% |
| 11Eintracht Frankfurt | #62 | R1 | 52% | 27% | 13% | 6% | 2% |
| 12TSG Hoffenheim | #81 | R1 | 59% | 27% | 12% | 5% | 2% |
| 13Rot-Weiss Essen | — | R1 | 45% | 21% | 10% | 4% | 1% |
| 14FC Augsburg | #133 | R1 | 71% | 30% | 11% | 4% | 1% |
| 15Borussia Mönchengladbach | #126 | R1 | 70% | 29% | 11% | 4% | 1% |
| 16SV Elversberg | #138 | R1 | 69% | 29% | 11% | 4% | 1% |
| 17Hamburg SV | #169 | R1 | 48% | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% |
| 18VfL Wolfsburg | #114 | R1 | 34% | 16% | 7% | 3% | <1% |
| 19FC Cologne | #164 | R1 | 60% | 24% | 9% | 3% | <1% |
| 201. FC Union Berlin | #190 | R1 | 40% | 17% | 6% | 2% | <1% |
| 211. FC Magdeburg | — | R1 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| 22Werder Bremen | #157 | R1 | 20% | 9% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| 23Schalke 04 | #254 | R1 | 23% | 9% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 24SC Paderborn 07 | #226 | R1 | 37% | 14% | 5% | 2% | <1% |
| 25Hertha Berlin | #263 | R1 | 19% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 26Holstein Kiel | #321 | R1 | 41% | 13% | 4% | <1% | <1% |
| 27Karlsruher SC | — | R1 | 30% | 10% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 28SV Darmstadt 98 | — | R1 | 31% | 10% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 29VfL Bochum | — | R1 | 38% | 13% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 30Kaiserslautern | #308 | R1 | 17% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 31SG Sonnenhof GroßaspachEstimated rating · limited evidence | — | R1 | 29% | 5% | <1% | <1% | — |
| 321. FC NürnbergEstimated rating · limited evidence | — | R1 | 6% | 1% | <1% | — | — |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.