2026-27 projections
DFB-Pokal
Season outcomes from 4,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Nov 9, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Undrawn rounds and lower-division strengths are approximated. Aggregate placeholder rows represent several clubs. Some hosting and entry/bracket constraints are simplified. Completed first legs are retained. Extra time uses proportional scoring rates and penalties are a 50/50 split.
| Club | World | Enters | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bayern Munich | #1 | R1 | 100% | 93% | 75% | 59% | 44% |
| 2Bayer Leverkusen | #20 | R1 | 100% | 64% | 39% | 22% | 10% |
| 3Borussia Dortmund | #19 | R1 | 100% | 57% | 35% | 19% | 9% |
| 4Dynamo Dresden | — | R1 | 100% | 46% | 26% | 14% | 6% |
| 5VfB Stuttgart | #37 | R1 | 100% | 54% | 29% | 14% | 5% |
| 6RB Leipzig | #31 | R1 | 100% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% |
| 7SC Freiburg | #60 | R1 | 100% | 62% | 29% | 13% | 5% |
| 8VfL Bochum | — | R1 | 100% | 64% | 27% | 10% | 3% |
| 9Eintracht Frankfurt | #64 | R1 | 100% | 43% | 21% | 9% | 3% |
| 10SV Darmstadt 98 | — | R1 | 100% | 44% | 18% | 6% | 2% |
| 11FC Cologne | #129 | R1 | 100% | 55% | 20% | 6% | 2% |
| 12Borussia Mönchengladbach | #128 | R1 | 100% | 56% | 22% | 7% | 2% |
| 13FC Augsburg | #138 | R1 | 100% | 36% | 13% | 4% | 1% |
| 14Holstein Kiel | #344 | R1 | 100% | 45% | 12% | 3% | <1% |
| 15Kaiserslautern | #296 | R1 | 100% | 38% | 11% | 2% | <1% |
| 16Hertha Berlin | #203 | R1 | 100% | 7% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.