2026-27 projections
DFB-Pokal
Season outcomes from 4,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Sep 10, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Undrawn rounds and lower-division strengths are approximated. Aggregate placeholder rows represent several clubs. Some hosting and entry/bracket constraints are simplified. Completed first legs are retained. Extra time uses proportional scoring rates and penalties are a 50/50 split.
| Club | World | Enters | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bayern Munich | #1 | R1 | 90% | 74% | 58% | 45% | 34% |
| 2Bayer Leverkusen | #19 | R1 | 94% | 61% | 36% | 21% | 12% |
| 3Borussia Dortmund | #16 | R1 | 79% | 51% | 32% | 18% | 10% |
| 4VfB Stuttgart | #33 | R1 | 66% | 39% | 21% | 11% | 5% |
| 5RB Leipzig | #31 | R1 | 56% | 32% | 18% | 10% | 5% |
| 6Hannover 96 | — | R1 | 83% | 46% | 23% | 11% | 4% |
| 7SSV Jeddeloh II | — | R1 | 81% | 43% | 23% | 10% | 4% |
| 8Dynamo Dresden | — | R1 | 78% | 42% | 20% | 10% | 4% |
| 9SC Freiburg | #67 | R1 | 64% | 33% | 16% | 8% | 3% |
| 10Mainz | #60 | R1 | 64% | 34% | 16% | 7% | 3% |
| 11Eintracht Frankfurt | #62 | R1 | 53% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% |
| 12TSG Hoffenheim | #74 | R1 | 61% | 30% | 14% | 6% | 2% |
| 13Borussia Mönchengladbach | #117 | R1 | 70% | 31% | 13% | 5% | 1% |
| 14FC Augsburg | #128 | R1 | 72% | 31% | 13% | 5% | 1% |
| 15Rot-Weiss Essen | — | R1 | 44% | 21% | 9% | 4% | 1% |
| 16SV Elversberg | #143 | R1 | 69% | 29% | 11% | 4% | 1% |
| 17FC Cologne | #152 | R1 | 58% | 25% | 9% | 3% | 1% |
| 18VfL Wolfsburg | #115 | R1 | 36% | 15% | 6% | 2% | <1% |
| 191. FC Union Berlin | #156 | R1 | 42% | 17% | 7% | 3% | <1% |
| 20Hamburg SV | #157 | R1 | 47% | 20% | 8% | 3% | <1% |
| 21Werder Bremen | #162 | R1 | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | <1% |
| 221. FC Magdeburg | — | R1 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
| 23Holstein Kiel | #320 | R1 | 39% | 12% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| 24SC Paderborn 07 | #238 | R1 | 34% | 12% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| 25Schalke 04 | #267 | R1 | 22% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 26Karlsruher SC | — | R1 | 30% | 10% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 27SV Darmstadt 98 | — | R1 | 31% | 10% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 28VfL Bochum | — | R1 | 36% | 11% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 29Hertha Berlin | #261 | R1 | 19% | 7% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 30Kaiserslautern | #308 | R1 | 17% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 31SG Sonnenhof GroßaspachEstimated rating · limited evidence | — | R1 | 28% | 6% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 321. FC NürnbergEstimated rating · limited evidence | — | R1 | 6% | 1% | <1% | <1% | — |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.