2026-27 projections
DFB-Pokal
Season outcomes from 4,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Oct 20, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Undrawn rounds and lower-division strengths are approximated. Aggregate placeholder rows represent several clubs. Some hosting and entry/bracket constraints are simplified. Completed first legs are retained. Extra time uses proportional scoring rates and penalties are a 50/50 split.
| Club | World | Enters | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bayern Munich | #1 | R1 | 91% | 75% | 61% | 48% | 36% |
| 2Bayer Leverkusen | #17 | R1 | 94% | 63% | 40% | 23% | 12% |
| 3Borussia Dortmund | #20 | R1 | 79% | 53% | 34% | 19% | 10% |
| 4VfB Stuttgart | #37 | R1 | 65% | 37% | 20% | 11% | 5% |
| 5Hannover 96 | — | R1 | 84% | 47% | 24% | 12% | 5% |
| 6RB Leipzig | #33 | R1 | 55% | 34% | 19% | 10% | 5% |
| 7SSV Jeddeloh II | — | R1 | 80% | 43% | 22% | 10% | 4% |
| 8Dynamo Dresden | — | R1 | 77% | 41% | 20% | 8% | 3% |
| 9SC Freiburg | #62 | R1 | 65% | 35% | 17% | 8% | 3% |
| 10Mainz | #61 | R1 | 63% | 33% | 16% | 8% | 3% |
| 11Eintracht Frankfurt | #69 | R1 | 51% | 26% | 12% | 5% | 2% |
| 12TSG Hoffenheim | #85 | R1 | 61% | 29% | 13% | 5% | 2% |
| 13FC Augsburg | #130 | R1 | 71% | 30% | 11% | 4% | 1% |
| 14Rot-Weiss Essen | — | R1 | 45% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% |
| 15SV Elversberg | #141 | R1 | 70% | 28% | 10% | 4% | 1% |
| 16Borussia Mönchengladbach | #134 | R1 | 70% | 30% | 12% | 4% | 1% |
| 17FC Cologne | #157 | R1 | 60% | 24% | 10% | 3% | 1% |
| 18Hamburg SV | #166 | R1 | 49% | 20% | 7% | 2% | <1% |
| 19VfL Wolfsburg | #109 | R1 | 35% | 16% | 7% | 3% | <1% |
| 201. FC Union Berlin | #183 | R1 | 40% | 17% | 6% | 2% | <1% |
| 21SC Paderborn 07 | #245 | R1 | 35% | 12% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| 22Werder Bremen | #148 | R1 | 21% | 9% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| 231. FC Magdeburg | — | R1 | 9% | 4% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 24Hertha Berlin | #244 | R1 | 20% | 7% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 25Holstein Kiel | #357 | R1 | 39% | 13% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| 26Karlsruher SC | — | R1 | 31% | 10% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 27Schalke 04 | #260 | R1 | 23% | 9% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 28SV Darmstadt 98 | — | R1 | 30% | 9% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 29VfL Bochum | — | R1 | 37% | 12% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 30Kaiserslautern | #309 | R1 | 16% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 31SG Sonnenhof GroßaspachEstimated rating · limited evidence | — | R1 | 29% | 6% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 321. FC NürnbergEstimated rating · limited evidence | — | R1 | 6% | 1% | <1% | <1% | — |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.