Senate · 2026

Arkansas Senate

Hallie Shoffner (D)v.Tom Cotton (R)SAFE R

Incumbent: Tom Cotton, currently Republican.

Projected margin

R+15.6

Nine in ten outcomes: R+6 to R+25

Chance of winning

>99%

Tom Cotton

Polls alone

R+7.3

4 polls from 4 pollsters; latest Aug 18. Weight in projection: 42%.

Fundamentals alone

R+21.7

Weight in projection: 58%.

Polls

The average over time

Each poll is first shifted by its sponsor's and its pollster's measured lean, then weighted by recency and track record. Sample size gets no weight: in 2,000-plus past races it predicted nothing about accuracy. Why.

adjusted weighted average shading: which side the average favors each poll, as published party-aligned pollster or sponsor

Before any poll

What the fundamentals say

A regression on past Senate races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+5.3).

What each term adds to the estimate

BaselineD+0.5

Partisan leanR+21.7

National environmentD+3.3

IncumbencyR+1.8

Incumbent's last over/under-performance0.0

Fundraising gapR+1.9

Fundamentals estimateR+21.7

Input: partisan lean

R+29.2

Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 (and 2020).

Input: raised from itemized individual donors, through June 30

$894K D · $2.7M R

FEC filings; the model uses the log of the ratio.

Handicappers, for comparison

Cook: Safe R · Sabato: Safe R · Inside Elections: Safe R

Not an input to the projection.

Table view

All 4 polls in the average

“Share” is how much of today’s average each poll supplies. It depends on recency, the pollster’s record, whether the poll screens for likely voters, and how many other polls the same firm has in the race. It does not depend on sample size.

Dates	Pollster	Sample	Shoffner	Cotton	As published	Adjusted	Share of average
Aug 14–18	J.L. Partners	803 LV	35	51	R+16	R+15.5 moved 0.5 toward D	38%	source
Aug 11–12	Hendrix College for Talk Business & Politics	1,217 LV	47.4	44	D+3	D+2.9 moved 0.5 toward R	33%	source
Jul 17–25	2040 Strategy GroupDEM.-ALIGNED for Shoffner's campaign	586 LV	43	46	R+3	R+6.6 moved 3.6 toward R	26%	source
Feb 7–9	GrayHouseREP.-ALIGNED for America One Policies	550 LV	36	58	R+22	R+18.3 moved 3.7 toward D	3.4%	source

LV: likely voters. RV: registered voters. A: all adults. “Adjusted” is the published margin after removing the sponsor shift and the pollster’s measured house effect; the small print says how far that moved the poll. Dem.-aligned and Rep.-aligned mark polls paid for by a party, a campaign, or an allied group, or taken by a firm whose published work is mostly for one side. They are shifted by the average lean of such polls, then counted at full weight.

History

Recent results for this office

Year	Democrat	Republican	Result
2022	Natalie James	John Boozman	R+34.6
2020	Ricky Dale Harrington Jr. (L)	Tom Cotton	R+33.1
2016	Conner W. Eldridge	John Boozman	R+23.6
2014	Mark L. Pryor	Tom Cotton	R+17.1