Pollster record · how records are scored
Hendrix College
Method: text/web mix · scored polls from 2010 to 2024
Versus the field
−0.10
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk +0.16; 10% own record)
Average miss
7.7
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.1
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
35
27 races · 3 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 7 | 6.3 | −1.1 | D+0.3 |
| 2012 | 4 | 5.3 | −1.0 | D+6.0 |
| 2014 | 5 | 9.1 | +0.4 | D+0.1 |
| 2016 | 4 | 4.3 | −4.3 | R+5.0 |
| 2018 | 7 | 4.7 | −2.8 | R+11.5 |
| 2020 | 3 | 7.5 | −2.3 | D+1.6 |
| 2022 | 4 | 17.7 | +11.4 | D+11.9 |
| 2024 | 1 | 15.6 | +11.3 | — |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | Governor AR | Fredrick Love v. Sarah Huckabee Sanders | R+5 |
| Aug 12, 2026 | AR-2 | Chris Jones v. French Hill | D+4 |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Senate AR | Hallie Shoffner v. Tom Cotton | D+3 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2024 | 2024 President, AR | R+15 | R+30.6 | D+15.6 | — |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2022 Governor, AR | R+10 | R+27.8 | D+17.8 | D+5.7 |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2022 Senate, AR | R+20 | R+34.6 | D+14.6 | D+5.8 |
| Sep 12, 2022 | 2022 Senate, AR | R+13 | R+34.6 | D+21.6 | D+5.8 |
| Sep 12, 2022 | 2022 Governor, AR | R+11 | R+27.8 | D+16.8 | D+5.7 |
| Oct 13, 2020 | 2020 House, AR-2 | R+1 | R+10.7 | D+10.2 | D+8.4 |
| Oct 13, 2020 | 2020 President, AR | R+25 | R+27.6 | D+3.1 | D+1.0 |
| Sep 9, 2020 | 2020 House, AR-2 | R+2 | R+10.7 | D+9.2 | D+8.4 |
| Oct 19, 2018 | 2018 Governor, AR | R+36 | R+33.6 | R+2.4 | D+9.6 |
| Oct 18, 2018 | 2018 House, AR-2 | R+12 | R+6.3 | R+5.7 | — |
| Sep 7, 2018 | 2018 Governor, AR | R+35 | R+33.6 | R+1.4 | D+9.6 |
| Sep 7, 2018 | 2018 House, AR-4 | R+30 | R+35.5 | D+5.5 | — |
| Sep 7, 2018 | 2018 House, AR-3 | R+22 | R+32.1 | D+10.1 | — |
| Sep 7, 2018 | 2018 House, AR-2 | R+9 | R+6.3 | R+2.7 | — |
| Sep 7, 2018 | 2018 House, AR-1 | R+35 | R+40.2 | D+5.2 | — |
| Oct 21, 2016 | 2016 President, AR | R+24 | R+26.9 | D+3.4 | D+7.5 |
| Oct 21, 2016 | 2016 Senate, AR | R+18 | R+23.6 | D+5.6 | D+8.8 |
| Sep 16, 2016 | 2016 President, AR | R+21 | R+26.9 | D+5.9 | D+7.5 |
| Sep 16, 2016 | 2016 Senate, AR | R+26 | R+23.6 | R+2.4 | D+8.8 |
| Oct 15, 2014 | 2014 Senate, AR | R+9 | R+17.1 | D+8.6 | D+12.7 |
| Oct 15, 2014 | 2014 House, AR-4 | R+2 | R+11.2 | D+9.2 | D+7.7 |
| Oct 15, 2014 | 2014 House, AR-2 | D+5 | R+8.3 | D+12.8 | D+7.4 |
| Oct 15, 2014 | 2014 Governor, AR | R+8 | R+13.9 | D+5.9 | D+8.2 |
| Oct 15, 2014 | 2014 House, AR-1 | R+22 | R+30.9 | D+8.9 | — |
| Sep 17, 2012 | 2012 House, AR-4 | R+29 | R+22.8 | R+6.2 | — |
| Sep 17, 2012 | 2012 House, AR-2 | R+20 | R+15.7 | R+4.3 | — |
| Sep 17, 2012 | 2012 House, AR-1 | R+25 | R+17.1 | R+7.9 | — |
| Sep 17, 2012 | 2012 President, AR | R+21 | R+23.7 | D+2.7 | R+3.3 |
| Oct 14, 2010 | 2010 House, AR-4 | D+18 | D+17.4 | D+0.6 | R+10.5 |
| Oct 14, 2010 | 2010 House, AR-3 | R+38 | R+44.9 | D+6.9 | — |
| Oct 14, 2010 | 2010 House, AR-2 | R+12 | R+19.6 | D+7.6 | D+4.9 |
| Oct 14, 2010 | 2010 House, AR-1 | R+8 | R+8.3 | D+0.3 | D+1.8 |
| Oct 14, 2010 | 2010 Senate, AR | R+13 | R+21.0 | D+8.0 | D+4.4 |
| Oct 14, 2010 | 2010 Governor, AR | D+16 | D+30.8 | R+14.8 | R+11.5 |
| Sep 16, 2010 | 2010 Senate, AR | R+27 | R+21.0 | R+6.0 | D+4.4 |