2026-27 projections
Copa del Rey
Season outcomes from 4,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Sep 28, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Undrawn rounds and lower-division strengths are approximated. Aggregate placeholder rows represent several clubs. Some hosting and entry/bracket constraints are simplified. Completed first legs are retained. Extra time uses proportional scoring rates and penalties are a 50/50 split.
| Club | World | Enters | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Barcelona | #5 | R32 | 100% | 75% | 62% | 47% | 34% |
| 2Real Madrid | #7 | R32 | 100% | 69% | 53% | 39% | 26% |
| 3Atlético Madrid | #25 | R32 | 100% | 53% | 34% | 20% | 10% |
| 4Atlético Pinatarense | — | qualifying-round | 100% | 39% | 21% | 10% | 4% |
| 5Villarreal | #56 | R32 | 100% | 39% | 20% | 9% | 4% |
| 6Real Betis | #63 | R32 | 100% | 36% | 17% | 8% | 3% |
| 7Athletic Club | #69 | R32 | 100% | 34% | 17% | 7% | 3% |
| 8AE Prat | — | qualifying-round | 100% | 34% | 17% | 7% | 2% |
| 9Celta Vigo | #96 | R32 | 100% | 29% | 14% | 5% | 2% |
| 10Real Sociedad | #92 | R32 | 100% | 27% | 12% | 5% | 2% |
| 11Anaitasuna | — | qualifying-round | 100% | 26% | 12% | 5% | 1% |
| 12UB Lebrijana | — | qualifying-round | 100% | 27% | 12% | 4% | 1% |
| 13Alavés | #144 | R32 | 100% | 24% | 10% | 3% | <1% |
| 14Rayo Vallecano | #122 | R32 | 100% | 24% | 9% | 3% | <1% |
| 15Sevilla | #178 | R32 | 100% | 21% | 9% | 3% | <1% |
| 16Valencia | #174 | R32 | 100% | 21% | 8% | 3% | <1% |
| 17Levante | #167 | R32 | 100% | 21% | 8% | 3% | <1% |
| 18Espanyol | #193 | R32 | 100% | 17% | 6% | 2% | <1% |
| 19Osasuna | #177 | R32 | 100% | 20% | 7% | 2% | <1% |
| 20Getafe | #229 | R32 | 100% | 17% | 6% | 2% | <1% |
| 21Sporting de Alcázar | — | qualifying-round | 100% | 17% | 6% | 2% | <1% |
| 22Deportivo | #221 | R32 | 100% | 17% | 6% | 2% | <1% |
| 23Elche | #220 | R32 | 100% | 16% | 5% | 2% | <1% |
| 24Atlético Calatayud | — | qualifying-round | 100% | 15% | 5% | 1% | <1% |
| 25Auriense Cented Academy | — | qualifying-round | 100% | 16% | 5% | 1% | <1% |
| 26Málaga | #266 | R32 | 100% | 14% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| 27Racing Santander | #215 | R32 | 100% | 16% | 5% | 1% | <1% |
| 28Sporting Hortaleza | — | qualifying-round | 100% | 8% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 29Ribadesella | — | qualifying-round | 100% | 9% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 30Tavernes de la Valldigna | — | qualifying-round | 100% | 9% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 31SD Noja | — | qualifying-round | 100% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 32Maracena | — | qualifying-round | 100% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 33Atlético Unión Güímar | — | qualifying-round | 100% | 3% | <1% | <1% | — |
| 34CD San José | — | qualifying-round | 100% | <1% | <1% | <1% | — |
| 35CP Talayuela | — | qualifying-round | 100% | <1% | <1% | <1% | — |
| 36CD Baztán | — | qualifying-round | 100% | <1% | <1% | <1% | — |
| 37Atlético Melilla | — | qualifying-round | 100% | — | — | — | — |
| 38CD Tedeón | — | qualifying-round | 100% | — | — | — | — |
| 39CF San Rafael | — | qualifying-round | 100% | — | — | — | — |
| 40Ceuta 6 de Junio | — | qualifying-round | 100% | <1% | — | — | — |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.