2026-clausura projections
Liga Profesional (Clausura 2026)
Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Knockout stages use 1,000 simulations. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Sep 28, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Regular-season and knockout phases use separate simulation samples. Format-specific draw, seeding and tie rules are approximations; consult the methodology before interpreting small differences.
- Win zone and playoff odds refer to the Clausura. Annual-table and average-points relegation are not forecast.
Group A
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | Playoffs | Win league | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Instituto (Córdoba) | #228 | 29.6 | 22 | 10 | 99% | 31% | 4% |
| 2Vélez Sarsfield | #128 | 29.3 | 20 | 10 | 99% | 31% | 10% |
| 3Boca Juniors | #49 | 27.9 | 17 | 10 | 97% | 20% | 18% |
| 4Independiente | #137 | 25.6 | 17 | 10 | 87% | 6% | 5% |
| 5Defensa y Justicia | #273 | 25.1 | 18 | 10 | 83% | 4% | 2% |
| 6Lanús | #179 | 24.8 | 16 | 10 | 85% | 4% | 6% |
| 7Gimnasia (Mendoza) | #271 | 24.3 | 17 | 10 | 80% | 3% | 2% |
| 8Newell's Old Boys | #327 | 23.4 | 16 | 10 | 69% | 2% | 2% |
| 9Unión (Santa Fe) | #232 | 20.5 | 13 | 10 | 36% | <1% | 1% |
| 10Estudiantes de La Plata | #97 | 19.9 | 10 | 10 | 31% | <1% | 2% |
| 11San Lorenzo | #239 | 19.1 | 11 | 10 | 17% | <1% | <1% |
| 12Deportivo Riestra | #354 | 17.3 | 10 | 10 | 8% | — | <1% |
| 13Platense | #334 | 16.1 | 9 | 10 | 4% | — | <1% |
| 14Talleres (Córdoba) | #251 | 15.6 | 8 | 10 | 3% | — | <1% |
| 15Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) | #367 | 14.9 | 8 | 10 | 2% | — | — |
Group B
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | Playoffs | Win league | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Rosario Central | #113 | 27.9 | 18 | 10 | 97% | 31% | 7% |
| 2Argentinos Juniors | #115 | 27.3 | 18 | 10 | 96% | 25% | 8% |
| 3Independiente Rivadavia | #110 | 26.1 | 17 | 10 | 92% | 16% | 7% |
| 4Gimnasia La Plata | #224 | 25.6 | 17 | 10 | 88% | 10% | 3% |
| 5Huracán | #186 | 24.6 | 16 | 10 | 84% | 7% | 5% |
| 6Belgrano (Córdoba) | #185 | 24.1 | 16 | 10 | 81% | 5% | 5% |
| 7River Plate | #68 | 23 | 13 | 10 | 73% | 2% | 8% |
| 8Sarmiento (Junín) | #372 | 22.7 | 16 | 10 | 62% | 2% | 1% |
| 9Atlético Tucumán | #280 | 20.5 | 13 | 10 | 40% | <1% | 1% |
| 10Tigre | #209 | 20.3 | 12 | 10 | 38% | <1% | 1% |
| 11Barracas Central | #360 | 19.5 | 12 | 10 | 25% | <1% | <1% |
| 12Racing Club | #98 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 16% | — | <1% |
| 13Banfield | #351 | 15.8 | 9 | 10 | 4% | — | <1% |
| 14Aldosivi | #420 | 14.6 | 8 | 10 | 2% | — | — |
| 15Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | #544 | 10.8 | 6 | 10 | — | — | — |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.