2026-clausura projections
Liga Profesional (Clausura 2026)
Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Knockout stages use 1,000 simulations. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Oct 20, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Regular-season and knockout phases use separate simulation samples. Format-specific draw, seeding and tie rules are approximations; consult the methodology before interpreting small differences.
- Win zone and playoff odds refer to the Clausura. Annual-table and average-points relegation are not forecast.
Group A
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | Playoffs | Win league | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Instituto (Córdoba) | #195 | 33.5 | 29 | 13 | 100% | 82% | 8% |
| 2Boca Juniors | #53 | 29.2 | 24 | 13 | 100% | 10% | 18% |
| 3Vélez Sarsfield | #143 | 28.5 | 24 | 13 | >99% | 4% | 8% |
| 4Lanús | #165 | 27.7 | 23 | 13 | >99% | 3% | 6% |
| 5Defensa y Justicia | #248 | 27.3 | 24 | 13 | >99% | 2% | 2% |
| 6Gimnasia (Mendoza) | #302 | 23.8 | 20 | 13 | 86% | — | 2% |
| 7Newell's Old Boys | #339 | 23.4 | 20 | 13 | 81% | — | 2% |
| 8Independiente | #164 | 23.3 | 19 | 13 | 78% | — | 3% |
| 9San Lorenzo | #238 | 21.3 | 17 | 13 | 35% | — | <1% |
| 10Estudiantes de La Plata | #101 | 18.6 | 14 | 13 | 13% | — | <1% |
| 11Unión (Santa Fe) | #264 | 17.8 | 14 | 13 | 6% | — | — |
| 12Deportivo Riestra | #367 | 15.3 | 12 | 13 | <1% | — | — |
| 13Platense | #326 | 14.8 | 11 | 13 | <1% | — | — |
| 14Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) | #370 | 13.5 | 10 | 13 | — | — | — |
| 15Talleres (Córdoba) | #255 | 13 | 9 | 13 | — | — | — |
Group B
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | Playoffs | Win league | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Rosario Central | #100 | 30.5 | 25 | 13 | 100% | 61% | 10% |
| 2Argentinos Juniors | #113 | 29.7 | 25 | 13 | 100% | 30% | 9% |
| 3Gimnasia La Plata | #218 | 26.9 | 22 | 13 | 98% | 4% | 4% |
| 4Belgrano (Córdoba) | #193 | 26.5 | 22 | 13 | 99% | 3% | 5% |
| 5River Plate | #66 | 24.7 | 20 | 13 | 93% | 1% | 11% |
| 6Sarmiento (Junín) | #359 | 24.1 | 21 | 13 | 88% | <1% | 2% |
| 7Independiente Rivadavia | #149 | 23.4 | 19 | 13 | 71% | <1% | 5% |
| 8Barracas Central | #327 | 23 | 19 | 13 | 75% | <1% | 1% |
| 9Huracán | #211 | 22.6 | 19 | 13 | 63% | <1% | 3% |
| 10Atlético Tucumán | #284 | 17.6 | 14 | 13 | 5% | — | <1% |
| 11Tigre | #219 | 17.5 | 13 | 13 | 5% | — | <1% |
| 12Banfield | #347 | 16.6 | 13 | 13 | 2% | — | <1% |
| 13Racing Club | #108 | 16.6 | 12 | 13 | 2% | — | <1% |
| 14Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | #544 | 11.3 | 9 | 13 | — | — | — |
| 15Aldosivi | #455 | 10.6 | 8 | 13 | — | — | — |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.