2026-clausura projections
Liga Profesional (Clausura 2026)
Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Knockout stages use 1,000 simulations. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Sep 10, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Regular-season and knockout phases use separate simulation samples. Format-specific draw, seeding and tie rules are approximations; consult the methodology before interpreting small differences.
- Win zone and playoff odds refer to the Clausura. Annual-table and average-points relegation are not forecast.
Group A
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | Playoffs | Win league | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Vélez Sarsfield | #137 | 28.4 | 16 | 8 | 96% | 33% | 9% |
| 2Instituto (Córdoba) | #252 | 27 | 16 | 8 | 92% | 18% | 4% |
| 3Gimnasia (Mendoza) | #240 | 26.5 | 16 | 8 | 91% | 18% | 4% |
| 4Boca Juniors | #55 | 25.4 | 11 | 8 | 85% | 10% | 15% |
| 5Independiente | #142 | 24.5 | 13 | 8 | 77% | 7% | 6% |
| 6Defensa y Justicia | #285 | 23.8 | 14 | 8 | 68% | 5% | 3% |
| 7Unión (Santa Fe) | #229 | 23.2 | 13 | 8 | 66% | 4% | 2% |
| 8Newell's Old Boys | #344 | 21.7 | 12 | 8 | 51% | 2% | 1% |
| 9Lanús | #197 | 21.3 | 10 | 8 | 48% | 1% | 2% |
| 10San Lorenzo | #235 | 20.4 | 10 | 8 | 35% | <1% | 2% |
| 11Estudiantes de La Plata | #98 | 20 | 7 | 8 | 37% | <1% | 3% |
| 12Deportivo Riestra | #328 | 18.9 | 9 | 8 | 25% | <1% | <1% |
| 13Platense | #334 | 18.3 | 9 | 8 | 17% | <1% | <1% |
| 14Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) | #367 | 16 | 7 | 8 | 7% | <1% | <1% |
| 15Talleres (Córdoba) | #248 | 15.4 | 5 | 8 | 6% | — | <1% |
Group B
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | Playoffs | Win league | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Argentinos Juniors | #114 | 29.3 | 17 | 8 | 98% | 46% | 7% |
| 2Gimnasia La Plata | #232 | 26.3 | 15 | 8 | 89% | 15% | 3% |
| 3Rosario Central | #127 | 24.5 | 12 | 8 | 79% | 8% | 7% |
| 4Sarmiento (Junín) | #368 | 23.8 | 15 | 8 | 71% | 5% | 2% |
| 5Belgrano (Córdoba) | #187 | 23.7 | 12 | 8 | 74% | 5% | 3% |
| 6Independiente Rivadavia | #113 | 23.7 | 11 | 8 | 72% | 6% | 6% |
| 7River Plate | #68 | 23.5 | 10 | 8 | 73% | 5% | 8% |
| 8Atlético Tucumán | #274 | 23.1 | 13 | 8 | 66% | 5% | 2% |
| 9Tigre | #203 | 22.9 | 12 | 8 | 65% | 4% | 4% |
| 10Barracas Central | #355 | 20.9 | 11 | 8 | 40% | <1% | 2% |
| 11Huracán | #205 | 20.7 | 10 | 8 | 42% | 1% | 2% |
| 12Racing Club | #96 | 18.3 | 5 | 8 | 21% | <1% | 2% |
| 13Banfield | #364 | 16.2 | 7 | 8 | 8% | <1% | <1% |
| 14Aldosivi | #431 | 13.4 | 5 | 8 | 2% | — | <1% |
| 15Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | #544 | 12.1 | 6 | 8 | <1% | — | — |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.