2026-clausura projections
Liga Profesional (Clausura 2026)
Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Knockout stages use 1,000 simulations. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Nov 7, 2026
Held back. These are the projections published as of Nov 7, 2026. The latest update for this competition failed a consistency check and is being fixed; every other page is current.
What these probabilities include
- Regular-season and knockout phases use separate simulation samples. Format-specific draw, seeding and tie rules are approximations; consult the methodology before interpreting small differences.
- Win zone and playoff odds refer to the Clausura. Annual-table and average-points relegation are not forecast.
Group A
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | Playoffs | Win league | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Instituto (Córdoba) | #198 | 34.7 | 33 | 15 | 100% | 88% | 7% |
| 2Boca Juniors | #49 | 32.1 | 30 | 15 | 100% | 12% | 18% |
| 3Defensa y Justicia | #261 | 28.7 | 28 | 15 | 100% | — | 2% |
| 4Vélez Sarsfield | #149 | 28 | 28 | 16 | 100% | — | 7% |
| 5Lanús | #183 | 26.6 | 25 | 15 | 100% | — | 5% |
| 6Independiente | #178 | 23 | 23 | 16 | 100% | — | 4% |
| 7Newell's Old Boys | #345 | 23 | 22 | 15 | 100% | — | 3% |
| 8Gimnasia (Mendoza) | #333 | 22.3 | 21 | 15 | 61% | — | 1% |
| 9Unión (Santa Fe) | #256 | 21 | 21 | 16 | 39% | — | <1% |
| 10Platense | #302 | 20 | 20 | 16 | — | — | — |
| 11San Lorenzo | #277 | 19 | 19 | 16 | — | — | — |
| 12Estudiantes de La Plata | #116 | 16.4 | 15 | 15 | — | — | — |
| 13Talleres (Córdoba) | #260 | 13.3 | 12 | 15 | — | — | — |
| 14Deportivo Riestra | #409 | 12 | 12 | 16 | — | — | — |
| 15Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) | #426 | 11.1 | 10 | 15 | — | — | — |
Group B
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | Playoffs | Win league | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Rosario Central | #100 | 33.2 | 31 | 15 | 100% | 82% | 9% |
| 2Argentinos Juniors | #127 | 32.7 | 31 | 15 | 100% | 18% | 8% |
| 3Gimnasia La Plata | #220 | 31 | 31 | 16 | 100% | — | 5% |
| 4River Plate | #68 | 26 | 26 | 16 | 100% | — | 17% |
| 5Barracas Central | #321 | 26 | 26 | 16 | 100% | — | 3% |
| 6Independiente Rivadavia | #166 | 23.4 | 22 | 15 | 100% | — | 4% |
| 7Belgrano (Córdoba) | #213 | 23 | 23 | 16 | 100% | — | 5% |
| 8Sarmiento (Junín) | #381 | 21 | 21 | 16 | 78% | — | 1% |
| 9Huracán | #235 | 20 | 19 | 15 | 22% | — | 1% |
| 10Tigre | #229 | 19 | 19 | 16 | — | — | — |
| 11Atlético Tucumán | #310 | 18 | 18 | 16 | — | — | — |
| 12Racing Club | #125 | 15 | 15 | 16 | — | — | — |
| 13Banfield | #364 | 15 | 15 | 16 | — | — | — |
| 14Aldosivi | #464 | 11 | 11 | 16 | — | — | — |
| 15Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | #564 | 9.5 | 9 | 15 | — | — | — |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.