Pollster record · how records are scored
MassINC Polling Group
Method: live phone mix · scored polls from 2010 to 2024
Versus the field
−0.15
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −0.60; 18% own record)
Average miss
4.0
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.3
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
53
27 races · 2 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 1 | 1.5 | −2.0 | D+0.1 |
| 2012 | 9 | 5.4 | −0.2 | D+3.0 |
| 2013 | 2 | 2.7 | −1.5 | R+2.5 |
| 2014 | 11 | 4.7 | +0.5 | D+6.1 |
| 2016 | 11 | 2.7 | −1.9 | R+1.3 |
| 2018 | 4 | 6.0 | +1.5 | R+4.7 |
| 2020 | 2 | 1.3 | −7.4 | D+0.4 |
| 2022 | 1 | 0.9 | −3.8 | D+5.7 |
| 2024 | 12 | 4.1 | +0.1 | D+0.2 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | Governor MA | Maura Healey v. Mike Minogue | D+22 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Senate MA | Ed Markey v. John Deaton | D+26 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2024 | 2024 President, MA | D+30 | D+25.2 | D+4.8 | D+2.7 |
| Nov 1, 2024 | 2024 Senate, MA | D+22 | D+19.8 | D+2.2 | D+3.8 |
| Sep 18, 2024 | 2024 Senate, WI | D+8 | D+0.8 | D+7.2 | D+2.8 |
| Sep 18, 2024 | 2024 Senate, RI | D+15 | D+20.0 | R+5.0 | Even |
| Sep 18, 2024 | 2024 President, CT | D+16 | D+14.5 | D+1.5 | — |
| Sep 18, 2024 | 2024 President, MA | D+28 | D+25.2 | D+2.8 | D+2.7 |
| Sep 18, 2024 | 2024 President, PA | D+5 | R+1.7 | D+6.2 | D+2.5 |
| Sep 18, 2024 | 2024 President, RI | D+13 | D+13.8 | R+0.8 | D+5.2 |
| Sep 18, 2024 | 2024 Senate, CT | D+16 | D+18.9 | R+2.9 | — |
| Sep 18, 2024 | 2024 Senate, MA | D+21 | D+19.8 | D+1.2 | D+3.8 |
| Sep 18, 2024 | 2024 Senate, PA | D+7 | R+0.2 | D+7.2 | D+4.6 |
| Sep 18, 2024 | 2024 President, WI | D+7 | R+0.9 | D+7.4 | D+2.8 |
| Oct 14, 2022 | 2022 Governor, MA | D+30 | D+29.1 | D+0.9 | R+4.8 |
| Oct 30, 2020 | 2020 President, MA | D+34 | D+33.5 | D+0.5 | D+4.3 |
| Oct 30, 2020 | 2020 Senate, MA | D+31 | D+33.1 | R+2.1 | R+6.7 |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 2018 Senate, MA | D+22 | D+24.2 | R+2.2 | D+2.6 |
| Oct 28, 2018 | 2018 Governor, MA | R+43 | R+33.5 | R+9.5 | R+3.3 |
| Sep 21, 2018 | 2018 Senate, MA | D+26 | D+24.2 | D+1.8 | D+2.6 |
| Sep 21, 2018 | 2018 Governor, MA | R+44 | R+33.5 | R+10.5 | R+3.3 |
| Oct 31, 2016 | 2016 President, NH | R+1 | D+0.4 | R+1.4 | D+4.2 |
| Oct 31, 2016 | 2016 Senate, NH | R+6 | D+0.1 | R+6.1 | R+0.4 |
| Oct 31, 2016 | 2016 Governor, NH | R+5 | R+2.3 | R+2.7 | D+2.7 |
| Oct 15, 2016 | 2016 President, MA | D+26 | D+27.2 | R+1.2 | R+0.9 |
| Oct 11, 2016 | 2016 Governor, NH | D+3 | R+2.3 | D+5.3 | D+2.7 |
| Oct 11, 2016 | 2016 President, NH | D+3 | D+0.4 | D+2.6 | D+4.2 |
| Oct 11, 2016 | 2016 Senate, NH | Even | D+0.1 | R+0.1 | R+0.4 |
| Sep 28, 2016 | 2016 Governor, NH | R+3 | R+2.3 | R+0.7 | D+2.7 |
| Sep 28, 2016 | 2016 President, NH | D+7 | D+0.4 | D+6.6 | D+4.2 |
| Sep 28, 2016 | 2016 Senate, NH | D+2 | D+0.1 | D+1.9 | R+0.4 |
| Sep 9, 2016 | 2016 President, MA | D+26 | D+27.2 | R+1.2 | R+0.9 |
| Oct 24, 2014 | 2014 Governor, MA | R+1 | R+1.9 | D+0.9 | R+0.8 |
| Oct 24, 2014 | 2014 Senate, MA | D+25 | D+23.9 | D+1.1 | R+4.1 |
| Oct 17, 2014 | 2014 Governor, MA | R+1 | R+1.9 | D+0.9 | R+0.8 |
| Oct 10, 2014 | 2014 Governor, MA | D+3 | R+1.9 | D+4.9 | R+0.8 |
| Oct 3, 2014 | 2014 Senate, MA | D+26 | D+23.9 | D+2.1 | R+4.1 |
| Oct 3, 2014 | 2014 Governor, MA | D+2 | R+1.9 | D+3.9 | R+0.8 |
| Sep 26, 2014 | 2014 Governor, MA | D+3 | R+1.9 | D+4.9 | R+0.8 |
| Sep 23, 2014 | 2014 House, MA-6 | D+8 | D+13.8 | R+5.8 | R+10.4 |
| Sep 18, 2014 | 2014 Senate, MA | D+28 | D+23.9 | D+4.1 | R+4.1 |
| Sep 18, 2014 | 2014 Governor, MA | D+10 | R+1.9 | D+11.9 | R+0.8 |
| Sep 13, 2014 | 2014 Governor, MA | D+9 | R+1.9 | D+10.9 | R+0.8 |
| Jun 8, 2013 | 2013 Senate, MA | D+7 | D+10.2 | R+3.2 | R+0.2 |
| May 5, 2013 | 2013 Senate, MA | D+8 | D+10.2 | R+2.2 | R+0.2 |
| Oct 21, 2012 | 2012 Senate, MA | D+6 | D+7.5 | R+1.5 | R+4.6 |
| Oct 21, 2012 | 2012 President, MA | D+20 | D+23.0 | R+3.0 | R+2.5 |
| Oct 6, 2012 | 2012 Senate, MA | R+3 | D+7.5 | R+10.5 | R+4.6 |
| Oct 6, 2012 | 2012 President, MA | D+16 | D+23.0 | R+7.0 | R+2.5 |
| Sep 27, 2012 | 2012 Senate, MA | D+4 | D+7.5 | R+3.5 | R+4.6 |
| Sep 27, 2012 | 2012 President, MA | D+28 | D+23.0 | D+5.0 | R+2.5 |
| Sep 16, 2012 | 2012 Senate, MA | D+5 | D+7.5 | R+2.5 | R+4.6 |
| Sep 16, 2012 | 2012 President, MA | D+28 | D+23.0 | D+5.0 | R+2.5 |
| Sep 9, 2012 | 2012 House, MA-6 | D+12 | D+1.1 | D+10.9 | R+6.2 |
| Oct 14, 2010 | 2010 House, MA-10 | D+3 | D+4.5 | R+1.5 | R+1.5 |