2026 projections
MLS
Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Oct 20, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Playoffs means a top-nine conference finish, including the wildcard round. MLS Cup winner probabilities are not included.
Eastern Conference
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | Playoffs | Top seed | Shield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Nashville SC | #73 | 74 | 67 | 30 | 100% | 100% | >99% |
| 2Inter Miami CF | #68 | 62.1 | 55 | 30 | 100% | — | — |
| 3New England Revolution | #217 | 56.8 | 52 | 30 | 100% | — | — |
| 4Chicago Fire FC | #174 | 53.9 | 48 | 30 | 100% | — | — |
| 5Charlotte FC | #150 | 52.9 | 47 | 30 | 100% | — | — |
| 6Philadelphia Union | #90 | 52.4 | 46 | 30 | 100% | — | — |
| 7Orlando City SC | #161 | 46.6 | 41 | 30 | 94% | — | — |
| 8FC Cincinnati | #181 | 43.1 | 36 | 29 | 59% | — | — |
| 9Red Bull New York | #266 | 42.1 | 36 | 29 | 48% | — | — |
| 10Columbus Crew | #116 | 41.5 | 35 | 30 | 45% | — | — |
| 11New York City FC | #163 | 40.6 | 34 | 30 | 24% | — | — |
| 12Toronto FC | #298 | 40.5 | 36 | 30 | 21% | — | — |
| 13D.C. United | #394 | 37.9 | 33 | 29 | 8% | — | — |
| 14Atlanta United FC | #296 | 35 | 30 | 30 | 1% | — | — |
| 15CF Montréal | #407 | 28.4 | 25 | 30 | — | — | — |
Western Conference
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | Playoffs | Top seed | Shield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Vancouver Whitecaps | #95 | 61.8 | 55 | 30 | 100% | 85% | <1% |
| 2FC Dallas | #178 | 57.7 | 51 | 30 | 100% | 10% | — |
| 3St. Louis CITY SC | #145 | 55.4 | 48 | 29 | 100% | 4% | — |
| 4San Jose Earthquakes | #226 | 53.5 | 48 | 30 | 100% | <1% | — |
| 5Houston Dynamo FC | #228 | 52.2 | 47 | 30 | 100% | <1% | — |
| 6LAFC | #75 | 51.4 | 46 | 31 | 100% | — | — |
| 7Seattle Sounders FC | #137 | 47.4 | 42 | 30 | 97% | — | — |
| 8LA Galaxy | #240 | 43.6 | 40 | 31 | 59% | — | — |
| 9Colorado Rapids | #292 | 43.6 | 39 | 30 | 69% | — | — |
| 10Real Salt Lake | #234 | 41.5 | 36 | 30 | 38% | — | — |
| 11San Diego FC | #170 | 39.7 | 34 | 30 | 13% | — | — |
| 12Minnesota United FC | #222 | 39.6 | 34 | 30 | 10% | — | — |
| 13Portland Timbers | #216 | 39.4 | 34 | 30 | 13% | — | — |
| 14Austin FC | #316 | 36.4 | 31 | 30 | 1% | — | — |
| 15Sporting Kansas City | #436 | 26 | 22 | 30 | — | — | — |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.