2026 projections
MLS
Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Sep 10, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Playoffs means a top-nine conference finish, including the wildcard round. MLS Cup winner probabilities are not included.
Eastern Conference
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | Playoffs | Top seed | Shield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Nashville SC | #88 | 70 | 53 | 24 | 100% | 91% | 80% |
| 2Inter Miami CF | #73 | 61.4 | 44 | 24 | 100% | 8% | 6% |
| 3Chicago Fire FC | #166 | 54.6 | 39 | 23 | 99% | <1% | <1% |
| 4Charlotte FC | #147 | 53.2 | 39 | 24 | 99% | <1% | <1% |
| 5New England Revolution | #224 | 52.6 | 40 | 24 | 99% | <1% | <1% |
| 6FC Cincinnati | #170 | 47.4 | 31 | 23 | 85% | — | — |
| 7Philadelphia Union | #106 | 45.8 | 30 | 24 | 79% | — | — |
| 8Orlando City SC | #173 | 45.5 | 31 | 24 | 76% | — | — |
| 9New York City FC | #153 | 43.6 | 29 | 24 | 60% | — | — |
| 10Toronto FC | #296 | 40.5 | 29 | 24 | 29% | — | — |
| 11Red Bull New York | #263 | 40.2 | 27 | 23 | 30% | — | — |
| 12D.C. United | #385 | 39 | 28 | 23 | 19% | — | — |
| 13Columbus Crew | #133 | 38.3 | 23 | 24 | 20% | — | — |
| 14Atlanta United FC | #302 | 34.2 | 22 | 24 | 4% | — | — |
| 15CF Montréal | #397 | 31.1 | 21 | 24 | <1% | — | — |
Western Conference
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | Playoffs | Top seed | Shield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Vancouver Whitecaps | #85 | 62.5 | 43 | 22 | >99% | 69% | 12% |
| 2Houston Dynamo FC | #219 | 56.8 | 43 | 24 | >99% | 14% | <1% |
| 3FC Dallas | #178 | 55.6 | 40 | 24 | 99% | 8% | <1% |
| 4LAFC | #65 | 54.8 | 37 | 24 | 98% | 6% | <1% |
| 5St. Louis CITY SC | #206 | 52.2 | 37 | 23 | 92% | 3% | <1% |
| 6San Jose Earthquakes | #253 | 48.6 | 35 | 23 | 77% | <1% | — |
| 7Portland Timbers | #184 | 47.2 | 31 | 23 | 69% | <1% | — |
| 8San Diego FC | #108 | 47 | 30 | 23 | 67% | <1% | <1% |
| 9Colorado Rapids | #272 | 45.2 | 32 | 24 | 53% | <1% | — |
| 10Seattle Sounders FC | #149 | 44.9 | 27 | 22 | 46% | <1% | — |
| 11Real Salt Lake | #220 | 44.6 | 29 | 23 | 46% | <1% | — |
| 12Minnesota United FC | #210 | 43.1 | 29 | 24 | 30% | — | — |
| 13LA Galaxy | #236 | 41.5 | 29 | 24 | 19% | <1% | — |
| 14Austin FC | #306 | 37.2 | 26 | 24 | 3% | — | — |
| 15Sporting Kansas City | #449 | 24.9 | 15 | 23 | — | — | — |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.