2026-27 projections
Conference League
Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Knockout stages use 4,000 simulations. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Nov 9, 2026
What these probabilities include
- League-phase GD/GF tiebreakers are followed by a random tie split; later UEFA criteria are approximated. Knockouts are drawn from league-phase ranks. Actual knockout-stage results are not yet supported.
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | Top 8 | 9–24 | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Twente | #63 | 14.3 | 9 | 3 | 88% | 12% | 97% | 58% | 30% | 15% | 7% |
| 2AS Monaco | #54 | 13.8 | 9 | 3 | 85% | 15% | 96% | 60% | 33% | 18% | 9% |
| 3FC Lugano | #102 | 13.4 | 9 | 3 | 78% | 22% | 92% | 49% | 21% | 9% | 4% |
| 4Panathinaikos | #72 | 12.9 | 9 | 3 | 69% | 31% | 90% | 53% | 28% | 14% | 7% |
| 5Brighton & Hove Albion | #12 | 12.8 | 7 | 3 | 70% | 30% | 95% | 74% | 54% | 38% | 25% |
| 6F.C. København | #88 | 12.1 | 7 | 3 | 57% | 43% | 84% | 44% | 22% | 10% | 4% |
| 7Ajax Amsterdam | #53 | 11.7 | 6 | 3 | 60% | 40% | 89% | 55% | 31% | 17% | 8% |
| 8SC Freiburg | #60 | 11.6 | 6 | 3 | 43% | 56% | 80% | 46% | 25% | 13% | 7% |
| 9Mjällby AIF | — | 11.3 | 7 | 3 | 42% | 58% | 74% | 34% | 15% | 6% | 2% |
| 10SK Brann | #210 | 11.1 | 7 | 3 | 38% | 62% | 66% | 25% | 8% | 3% | 1% |
| 11Trabzonspor | #77 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 41% | 58% | 77% | 41% | 20% | 10% | 5% |
| 12CSU Craiova | — | 10.5 | 7 | 3 | 28% | 71% | 65% | 25% | 10% | 3% | 2% |
| 13Sint-Truidense | #207 | 10.3 | 7 | 3 | 23% | 76% | 60% | 22% | 7% | 2% | <1% |
| 14Hajduk Split | — | 10 | 6 | 3 | 19% | 76% | 54% | 19% | 7% | 2% | <1% |
| 15Braga | #78 | 9.9 | 4 | 3 | 19% | 76% | 69% | 35% | 19% | 9% | 4% |
| 16Atalanta | #50 | 9.6 | 4 | 3 | 18% | 75% | 71% | 41% | 23% | 12% | 6% |
| 17KAA Gent | #181 | 8.5 | 4 | 3 | 8% | 76% | 45% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% |
| 18Red Star Belgrade | #173 | 8.2 | 4 | 3 | 7% | 76% | 44% | 18% | 7% | 3% | 1% |
| 19Riga FC | — | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2% | 67% | 25% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 20Egnatia | — | 6.6 | 2 | 3 | <1% | 58% | 18% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 21FC Thun | #236 | 6.4 | 3 | 3 | 2% | 54% | 23% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 22FC Midtjylland | #92 | 6.4 | 1 | 3 | — | 54% | 31% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% |
| 23FC Nordsjælland | — | 6.2 | 2 | 3 | <1% | 50% | 22% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 24Borac Banja Luka | — | 6.1 | 3 | 3 | <1% | 48% | 17% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 25Jablonec | — | 5.9 | 2 | 3 | <1% | 49% | 22% | 7% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 26Heart of Midlothian | #96 | 5.9 | 1 | 3 | <1% | 47% | 26% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% |
| 27AGF | — | 5.4 | 2 | 3 | <1% | 38% | 13% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 28Getafe | #223 | 5.4 | 1 | 3 | — | 38% | 16% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 29CSKA Sofia | — | 5.1 | 1 | 3 | <1% | 37% | 12% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 30Lincoln Red Imps | — | 5 | 3 | 3 | <1% | 23% | 4% | <1% | <1% | — | — |
| 31Kairat Almaty | — | 4.7 | 2 | 3 | <1% | 20% | 6% | 1% | <1% | <1% | — |
| 32Pafos | — | 4.5 | 1 | 3 | — | 24% | 9% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 33Iberia 1999 | — | 4.2 | 1 | 3 | <1% | 21% | 6% | 1% | <1% | <1% | — |
| 34KuPS Kuopio | — | 3.6 | 1 | 3 | <1% | 12% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 35Inter D'Escaldes | — | 2.7 | 0 | 3 | — | 6% | 1% | <1% | <1% | — | — |
| 36Kauno Zalgiris | — | 2 | 0 | 3 | — | 3% | <1% | — | — | — | — |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.