2026-27 projections
Conference League
Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Knockout stages use 4,000 simulations. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Oct 20, 2026
What these probabilities include
- League-phase GD/GF tiebreakers are followed by a random tie split; later UEFA criteria are approximated. Knockouts are drawn from league-phase ranks. Actual knockout-stage results are not yet supported.
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | Top 8 | 9–24 | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Brighton & Hove Albion | #11 | 13.2 | 3 | 1 | 77% | 22% | 95% | 76% | 56% | 41% | 27% |
| 2Atalanta | #39 | 12.8 | 3 | 1 | 70% | 29% | 91% | 61% | 38% | 23% | 12% |
| 3F.C. København | #70 | 12.2 | 3 | 1 | 63% | 35% | 85% | 50% | 26% | 14% | 6% |
| 4AS Monaco | #52 | 11.3 | 3 | 1 | 48% | 48% | 81% | 50% | 29% | 17% | 9% |
| 5Trabzonspor | #88 | 11.2 | 3 | 1 | 48% | 47% | 76% | 41% | 21% | 10% | 4% |
| 6FC Twente | #122 | 11.2 | 3 | 1 | 46% | 48% | 73% | 36% | 16% | 6% | 2% |
| 7FC Lugano | #126 | 10.9 | 3 | 1 | 41% | 51% | 71% | 34% | 15% | 6% | 3% |
| 8SC Freiburg | #62 | 10.8 | 3 | 1 | 41% | 52% | 75% | 44% | 24% | 12% | 6% |
| 9FC Midtjylland | #60 | 10.5 | 1 | 1 | 42% | 50% | 75% | 44% | 24% | 13% | 6% |
| 10Panathinaikos | #92 | 10.3 | 3 | 1 | 33% | 57% | 68% | 36% | 19% | 8% | 4% |
| 11SK Brann | #197 | 10.3 | 3 | 1 | 35% | 54% | 62% | 26% | 10% | 4% | 1% |
| 12Mjällby AIF | — | 10.2 | 3 | 1 | 33% | 57% | 59% | 25% | 10% | 3% | 1% |
| 13Hajduk Split | — | 10.1 | 3 | 1 | 31% | 57% | 60% | 25% | 9% | 3% | 1% |
| 14KAA Gent | #198 | 9.9 | 3 | 1 | 28% | 58% | 57% | 24% | 9% | 3% | 1% |
| 15Braga | #84 | 9.1 | 0 | 1 | 22% | 59% | 59% | 32% | 16% | 7% | 3% |
| 16Heart of Midlothian | #71 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 21% | 59% | 58% | 33% | 18% | 9% | 4% |
| 17FC Nordsjælland | — | 8.7 | 1 | 1 | 19% | 60% | 51% | 23% | 10% | 4% | 2% |
| 18Sint-Truidense | #246 | 8.4 | 3 | 1 | 16% | 57% | 40% | 14% | 5% | 1% | <1% |
| 19Egnatia | — | 8.4 | 1 | 1 | 15% | 62% | 40% | 14% | 5% | 1% | <1% |
| 20Ajax Amsterdam | #81 | 7.8 | 0 | 1 | 13% | 56% | 46% | 24% | 12% | 6% | 3% |
| 21Red Star Belgrade | — | 7.8 | 0 | 1 | 12% | 57% | 42% | 18% | 7% | 3% | 1% |
| 22Getafe | #230 | 7.7 | 1 | 1 | 9% | 58% | 35% | 14% | 6% | 2% | <1% |
| 23Riga FC | — | 6.7 | 1 | 1 | 5% | 47% | 21% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 24CSU Craiova | — | 6.6 | 1 | 1 | 5% | 46% | 21% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 25Pafos | — | 6.6 | 0 | 1 | 5% | 46% | 29% | 12% | 4% | 2% | <1% |
| 26FC Thun | #262 | 6.1 | 0 | 1 | 4% | 41% | 20% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 27Kairat Almaty | — | 5.9 | 1 | 1 | 3% | 38% | 16% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 28Jablonec | — | 5.9 | 0 | 1 | 4% | 38% | 19% | 6% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 29AGF | — | 5.7 | 0 | 1 | 3% | 37% | 14% | 4% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 30Borac Banja Luka | — | 5.6 | 0 | 1 | 3% | 35% | 14% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 31CSKA Sofia | — | 5.3 | 0 | 1 | 2% | 31% | 12% | 4% | <1% | <1% | — |
| 32Inter D'Escaldes | — | 5.1 | 0 | 1 | 1% | 28% | 8% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 33KuPS Kuopio | — | 4.9 | 0 | 1 | 1% | 27% | 10% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 34Kauno Zalgiris | — | 4.6 | 0 | 1 | 1% | 21% | 6% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 35Iberia 1999 | — | 4.6 | 0 | 1 | <1% | 22% | 6% | 1% | <1% | <1% | — |
| 36Lincoln Red Imps | — | 3.5 | 0 | 1 | <1% | 12% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% | — |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.