2026-27 projections
Scottish Cup
Season outcomes from 4,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Sep 10, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Undrawn rounds and lower-division strengths are approximated. Aggregate placeholder rows represent several clubs. Some hosting and entry/bracket constraints are simplified. Completed first legs are retained. Extra time uses proportional scoring rates and penalties are a 50/50 split.
| Club | World | Enters | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Celtic | #11 | R4 | 90% | 77% | 62% | 46% | 32% |
| 2Rangers | #29 | R4 | 86% | 68% | 50% | 33% | 20% |
| 3Heart of Midlothian | #59 | R4 | 82% | 62% | 43% | 25% | 13% |
| 4Hibernian | #100 | R4 | 77% | 54% | 34% | 18% | 8% |
| 5Motherwell | #112 | R4 | 75% | 53% | 32% | 17% | 8% |
| 6Falkirk | #246 | R4 | 69% | 43% | 22% | 10% | 3% |
| 7Aberdeen | #277 | R4 | 68% | 41% | 20% | 8% | 3% |
| 8Dundee | #293 | R4 | 68% | 40% | 20% | 8% | 3% |
| 9Dundee United | #288 | R4 | 67% | 40% | 21% | 8% | 3% |
| 10St Mirren | #294 | R4 | 67% | 40% | 18% | 7% | 2% |
| 11Kilmarnock | #343 | R4 | 67% | 38% | 17% | 6% | 2% |
| 12St Johnstone | #371 | R4 | 63% | 35% | 16% | 6% | 2% |
| 13Lower-league qualifier (aggregate)Estimated rating · limited evidence | — | R4 | 100% | 100% | 44% | 6% | <1% |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.