2026-27 projections
Scottish Cup
Season outcomes from 4,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Nov 9, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Undrawn rounds and lower-division strengths are approximated. Aggregate placeholder rows represent several clubs. Some hosting and entry/bracket constraints are simplified. Completed first legs are retained. Extra time uses proportional scoring rates and penalties are a 50/50 split.
| Club | World | Enters | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Celtic | #28 | R4 | 88% | 74% | 58% | 42% | 28% |
| 2Rangers | #33 | R4 | 87% | 70% | 54% | 38% | 24% |
| 3Heart of Midlothian | #96 | R4 | 80% | 59% | 39% | 22% | 11% |
| 4Hibernian | #119 | R4 | 77% | 55% | 34% | 19% | 9% |
| 5Falkirk | #187 | R4 | 75% | 50% | 28% | 14% | 6% |
| 6Motherwell | #194 | R4 | 73% | 49% | 27% | 13% | 5% |
| 7Dundee United | #281 | R4 | 70% | 44% | 23% | 10% | 4% |
| 8Aberdeen | #307 | R4 | 68% | 42% | 22% | 9% | 3% |
| 9Dundee | #312 | R4 | 68% | 42% | 22% | 8% | 3% |
| 10St Mirren | #376 | R4 | 64% | 36% | 17% | 7% | 2% |
| 11Kilmarnock | #366 | R4 | 66% | 37% | 17% | 7% | 2% |
| 12St Johnstone | #397 | R4 | 65% | 37% | 16% | 6% | 2% |
| 13Lower-league qualifier (aggregate)Estimated rating · limited evidence | — | R4 | 100% | 100% | 42% | 6% | <1% |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.