2026-27 projections
Scottish Cup
Season outcomes from 4,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Sep 28, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Undrawn rounds and lower-division strengths are approximated. Aggregate placeholder rows represent several clubs. Some hosting and entry/bracket constraints are simplified. Completed first legs are retained. Extra time uses proportional scoring rates and penalties are a 50/50 split.
| Club | World | Enters | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Celtic | #18 | R4 | 88% | 73% | 58% | 42% | 29% |
| 2Rangers | #29 | R4 | 86% | 70% | 53% | 37% | 23% |
| 3Heart of Midlothian | #60 | R4 | 81% | 60% | 41% | 25% | 13% |
| 4Hibernian | #106 | R4 | 77% | 55% | 34% | 18% | 9% |
| 5Motherwell | #142 | R4 | 75% | 51% | 30% | 14% | 6% |
| 6Aberdeen | #246 | R4 | 70% | 43% | 23% | 10% | 4% |
| 7Falkirk | #235 | R4 | 72% | 44% | 23% | 10% | 4% |
| 8Dundee United | #270 | R4 | 70% | 42% | 22% | 9% | 3% |
| 9Dundee | #288 | R4 | 68% | 41% | 20% | 8% | 3% |
| 10Kilmarnock | #330 | R4 | 66% | 37% | 18% | 7% | 2% |
| 11St Mirren | #316 | R4 | 66% | 38% | 19% | 7% | 2% |
| 12St Johnstone | #375 | R4 | 63% | 35% | 17% | 6% | 2% |
| 13Lower-league qualifier (aggregate)Estimated rating · limited evidence | — | R4 | 100% | 100% | 43% | 7% | <1% |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.