2026-27 projections
Scottish Cup
Season outcomes from 4,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Oct 20, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Undrawn rounds and lower-division strengths are approximated. Aggregate placeholder rows represent several clubs. Some hosting and entry/bracket constraints are simplified. Completed first legs are retained. Extra time uses proportional scoring rates and penalties are a 50/50 split.
| Club | World | Enters | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Celtic | #18 | R4 | 88% | 75% | 59% | 43% | 29% |
| 2Rangers | #30 | R4 | 87% | 70% | 52% | 36% | 23% |
| 3Heart of Midlothian | #71 | R4 | 81% | 61% | 41% | 24% | 12% |
| 4Hibernian | #120 | R4 | 76% | 53% | 33% | 17% | 8% |
| 5Motherwell | #169 | R4 | 74% | 49% | 28% | 14% | 6% |
| 6Aberdeen | #242 | R4 | 70% | 45% | 24% | 11% | 4% |
| 7Falkirk | #241 | R4 | 71% | 44% | 24% | 11% | 4% |
| 8Dundee United | #268 | R4 | 68% | 41% | 22% | 10% | 4% |
| 9Kilmarnock | #336 | R4 | 66% | 39% | 18% | 7% | 3% |
| 10Dundee | #281 | R4 | 69% | 41% | 21% | 8% | 3% |
| 11St Johnstone | #376 | R4 | 64% | 36% | 17% | 7% | 2% |
| 12St Mirren | #363 | R4 | 65% | 37% | 18% | 6% | 2% |
| 13Lower-league qualifier (aggregate)Estimated rating · limited evidence | — | R4 | 100% | 100% | 44% | 7% | <1% |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.