2026-apertura projections
Liga MX (Apertura 2026)
Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Knockout stages use 2,000 simulations. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Sep 10, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Regular-season and knockout phases use separate simulation samples. Format-specific draw, seeding and tie rules are approximations; consult the methodology before interpreting small differences.
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | Liguilla | Win league | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1América | #61 | 34.3 | 16 | 6 | 98% | 43% | 30% |
| 2Toluca | #48 | 33.2 | 13 | 6 | 97% | 33% | 33% |
| 3Guadalajara | #107 | 30.2 | 14 | 7 | 91% | 11% | 11% |
| 4Tijuana | #245 | 28.3 | 13 | 6 | 80% | 5% | 3% |
| 5Cruz Azul | #87 | 26.8 | 12 | 7 | 71% | 3% | 9% |
| 6Monterrey | #129 | 25 | 9 | 6 | 56% | 2% | 5% |
| 7Atlas | #351 | 24.6 | 13 | 7 | 48% | <1% | <1% |
| 8Pumas UNAM | #193 | 24.2 | 8 | 6 | 47% | <1% | 2% |
| 9León | #271 | 23.9 | 10 | 6 | 44% | <1% | 1% |
| 10Querétaro | #396 | 23.4 | 10 | 6 | 39% | <1% | <1% |
| 11Pachuca | #172 | 22.4 | 8 | 7 | 34% | <1% | 2% |
| 12Tigres UANL | #95 | 21.4 | 6 | 7 | 25% | <1% | 3% |
| 13Puebla | #460 | 21.3 | 10 | 6 | 22% | <1% | <1% |
| 14Necaxa | #327 | 21.2 | 8 | 7 | 22% | <1% | <1% |
| 15Atlético de San Luis | #333 | 19.8 | 6 | 7 | 14% | <1% | <1% |
| 16Atlante | — | 18.8 | 7 | 7 | 10% | <1% | <1% |
| 17Santos Laguna | #456 | 12.1 | 1 | 7 | <1% | — | — |
| 18FC Juarez | #395 | 12 | 0 | 7 | <1% | — | — |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.