2026-apertura projections
Liga MX (Apertura 2026)
Season outcomes from 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Knockout stages use 2,000 simulations. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Oct 20, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Regular-season and knockout phases use separate simulation samples. Format-specific draw, seeding and tie rules are approximations; consult the methodology before interpreting small differences.
| Club | World | Proj. pts | Pts | GP | Liguilla | Win league | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1América | #63 | 34.1 | 24 | 11 | >99% | 72% | 30% |
| 2Toluca | #58 | 29.4 | 21 | 12 | 97% | 13% | 27% |
| 3Guadalajara | #110 | 28.4 | 20 | 12 | 93% | 5% | 13% |
| 4Querétaro | #390 | 27.7 | 20 | 11 | 82% | 3% | 1% |
| 5Atlas | #333 | 27.6 | 21 | 12 | 85% | 3% | 3% |
| 6Cruz Azul | #87 | 27.3 | 20 | 12 | 86% | 3% | 14% |
| 7Monterrey | #131 | 25.7 | 17 | 11 | 67% | 1% | 6% |
| 8Tijuana | #269 | 23.3 | 16 | 11 | 35% | <1% | 1% |
| 9León | #276 | 23.2 | 18 | 12 | 32% | <1% | <1% |
| 10Pumas UNAM | #205 | 23.2 | 16 | 12 | 35% | <1% | 1% |
| 11Santos Laguna | #395 | 22.4 | 16 | 12 | 28% | <1% | <1% |
| 12Tigres UANL | #104 | 21.6 | 14 | 12 | 20% | — | 2% |
| 13Puebla | #469 | 21.5 | 16 | 12 | 17% | <1% | <1% |
| 14Atlético de San Luis | #321 | 20.9 | 13 | 12 | 14% | — | <1% |
| 15Pachuca | #180 | 19.4 | 13 | 12 | 8% | — | <1% |
| 16Atlante | #443 | 16.5 | 11 | 12 | <1% | — | — |
| 17Necaxa | #369 | 15.3 | 9 | 12 | <1% | — | — |
| 18FC Juarez | #408 | 10.8 | 4 | 12 | — | — | — |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.