2026-27 projections
KNVB Beker
Season outcomes from 4,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Nov 9, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Undrawn rounds and lower-division strengths are approximated. Aggregate placeholder rows represent several clubs. Some hosting and entry/bracket constraints are simplified. Completed first legs are retained. Extra time uses proportional scoring rates and penalties are a 50/50 split.
| Club | World | Enters | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1PSV Eindhoven | #14 | R2 | 90% | 75% | 58% | 42% | 30% |
| 2Feyenoord Rotterdam | #46 | R2 | 84% | 64% | 44% | 28% | 16% |
| 3Ajax Amsterdam | #53 | R2 | 84% | 63% | 42% | 25% | 13% |
| 4FC Twente | #63 | R2 | 82% | 60% | 40% | 23% | 12% |
| 5AZ Alkmaar | #99 | R2 | 80% | 54% | 32% | 17% | 7% |
| 6NEC Nijmegen | #171 | R2 | 76% | 48% | 25% | 11% | 4% |
| 7Heerenveen | #202 | R1 | 65% | 40% | 19% | 9% | 3% |
| 8FC Utrecht | #224 | R1 | 64% | 39% | 19% | 7% | 3% |
| 9Go Ahead Eagles | #269 | R1 | 63% | 37% | 16% | 6% | 2% |
| 10FC Groningen | #278 | R1 | 63% | 37% | 18% | 7% | 2% |
| 11Sparta Rotterdam | #372 | R1 | 57% | 31% | 13% | 5% | 1% |
| 12SC Cambuur | #341 | R1 | 60% | 33% | 14% | 4% | 1% |
| 13Fortuna Sittard | #371 | R1 | 53% | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% |
| 14Telstar | #383 | R1 | 55% | 28% | 11% | 4% | <1% |
| 15Excelsior | #430 | R1 | 52% | 26% | 9% | 3% | <1% |
| 16ADO Den Haag | #439 | R1 | 52% | 26% | 10% | 3% | <1% |
| 17PEC Zwolle | #461 | R1 | 51% | 25% | 9% | 2% | <1% |
| 18Willem II | #565 | R1 | 40% | 15% | 4% | <1% | <1% |
| 19Lower-league qualifier (aggregate)Estimated rating · limited evidence | — | R1 | 100% | 69% | 5% | <1% | — |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.