2026-27 projections
KNVB Beker
Season outcomes from 4,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Oct 20, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Undrawn rounds and lower-division strengths are approximated. Aggregate placeholder rows represent several clubs. Some hosting and entry/bracket constraints are simplified. Completed first legs are retained. Extra time uses proportional scoring rates and penalties are a 50/50 split.
| Club | World | Enters | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1PSV Eindhoven | #26 | R2 | 90% | 75% | 58% | 43% | 30% |
| 2Feyenoord Rotterdam | #56 | R2 | 86% | 67% | 47% | 29% | 16% |
| 3Ajax Amsterdam | #81 | R2 | 83% | 63% | 40% | 23% | 13% |
| 4FC Twente | #122 | R2 | 80% | 57% | 36% | 20% | 9% |
| 5AZ Alkmaar | #121 | R2 | 81% | 57% | 34% | 19% | 9% |
| 6NEC Nijmegen | #239 | R2 | 74% | 45% | 23% | 10% | 4% |
| 7FC Utrecht | #258 | R1 | 67% | 41% | 21% | 9% | 4% |
| 8Heerenveen | #300 | R1 | 63% | 39% | 20% | 9% | 3% |
| 9FC Groningen | #325 | R1 | 63% | 39% | 19% | 7% | 3% |
| 10Go Ahead Eagles | #342 | R1 | 64% | 39% | 19% | 7% | 2% |
| 11Sparta Rotterdam | #429 | R1 | 56% | 30% | 13% | 4% | 2% |
| 12Fortuna Sittard | #445 | R1 | 55% | 29% | 11% | 4% | 1% |
| 13Excelsior | #430 | R1 | 57% | 30% | 12% | 4% | <1% |
| 14Telstar | #452 | R1 | 56% | 30% | 12% | 4% | <1% |
| 15ADO Den Haag | — | R1 | 52% | 26% | 9% | 3% | <1% |
| 16SC Cambuur | #530 | R1 | 49% | 24% | 8% | 2% | <1% |
| 17PEC Zwolle | #509 | R1 | 50% | 23% | 8% | 2% | <1% |
| 18Willem II | #551 | R1 | 44% | 19% | 5% | 1% | <1% |
| 19Lower-league qualifier (aggregate)Estimated rating · limited evidence | — | R1 | 100% | 69% | 6% | <1% | — |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.