2026-27 projections
KNVB Beker
Season outcomes from 4,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Sep 10, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Undrawn rounds and lower-division strengths are approximated. Aggregate placeholder rows represent several clubs. Some hosting and entry/bracket constraints are simplified. Completed first legs are retained. Extra time uses proportional scoring rates and penalties are a 50/50 split.
| Club | World | Enters | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1PSV Eindhoven | #22 | R2 | 90% | 76% | 59% | 45% | 33% |
| 2Feyenoord Rotterdam | #71 | R2 | 83% | 63% | 42% | 26% | 14% |
| 3Ajax Amsterdam | #82 | R2 | 82% | 61% | 39% | 22% | 11% |
| 4AZ Alkmaar | #104 | R2 | 81% | 58% | 36% | 19% | 10% |
| 5FC Twente | #121 | R2 | 79% | 56% | 34% | 18% | 9% |
| 6NEC Nijmegen | #189 | R2 | 78% | 52% | 29% | 13% | 6% |
| 7FC Utrecht | #254 | R1 | 66% | 41% | 22% | 9% | 3% |
| 8Go Ahead Eagles | #301 | R1 | 64% | 39% | 18% | 8% | 3% |
| 9Heerenveen | #339 | R1 | 62% | 37% | 18% | 7% | 2% |
| 10FC Groningen | #352 | R1 | 61% | 36% | 17% | 6% | 2% |
| 11Excelsior | #378 | R1 | 59% | 34% | 16% | 6% | 2% |
| 12Sparta Rotterdam | #404 | R1 | 57% | 31% | 14% | 4% | 1% |
| 13Fortuna Sittard | #434 | R1 | 57% | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% |
| 14Telstar | #442 | R1 | 56% | 31% | 11% | 4% | 1% |
| 15PEC Zwolle | #476 | R1 | 55% | 28% | 10% | 3% | <1% |
| 16ADO Den Haag | — | R1 | 51% | 23% | 8% | 2% | <1% |
| 17Willem II | #541 | R1 | 46% | 21% | 7% | 2% | <1% |
| 18SC Cambuur | — | R1 | 45% | 18% | 5% | <1% | <1% |
| 19Lower-league qualifier (aggregate)Estimated rating · limited evidence | — | R1 | 100% | 68% | 5% | <1% | <1% |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.