2026-27 projections
KNVB Beker
Season outcomes from 4,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Sep 28, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Undrawn rounds and lower-division strengths are approximated. Aggregate placeholder rows represent several clubs. Some hosting and entry/bracket constraints are simplified. Completed first legs are retained. Extra time uses proportional scoring rates and penalties are a 50/50 split.
| Club | World | Enters | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1PSV Eindhoven | #28 | R2 | 90% | 76% | 59% | 42% | 30% |
| 2Feyenoord Rotterdam | #57 | R2 | 85% | 66% | 46% | 28% | 16% |
| 3Ajax Amsterdam | #82 | R2 | 83% | 62% | 40% | 23% | 13% |
| 4AZ Alkmaar | #116 | R2 | 80% | 57% | 36% | 19% | 9% |
| 5FC Twente | #117 | R2 | 81% | 57% | 34% | 18% | 9% |
| 6NEC Nijmegen | #244 | R2 | 76% | 48% | 25% | 11% | 5% |
| 7FC Utrecht | #281 | R1 | 66% | 40% | 20% | 9% | 3% |
| 8Go Ahead Eagles | #318 | R1 | 65% | 39% | 20% | 8% | 3% |
| 9FC Groningen | #349 | R1 | 63% | 37% | 18% | 8% | 3% |
| 10Heerenveen | #337 | R1 | 64% | 38% | 18% | 7% | 2% |
| 11Excelsior | #388 | R1 | 60% | 34% | 15% | 6% | 2% |
| 12Sparta Rotterdam | #443 | R1 | 57% | 30% | 12% | 5% | 1% |
| 13Fortuna Sittard | #459 | R1 | 55% | 29% | 12% | 4% | 1% |
| 14Telstar | #456 | R1 | 55% | 29% | 12% | 4% | <1% |
| 15PEC Zwolle | #516 | R1 | 51% | 25% | 8% | 2% | <1% |
| 16Willem II | #548 | R1 | 43% | 18% | 6% | 1% | <1% |
| 17ADO Den Haag | — | R1 | 49% | 23% | 8% | 2% | <1% |
| 18SC Cambuur | — | R1 | 48% | 22% | 7% | 1% | <1% |
| 19Lower-league qualifier (aggregate)Estimated rating · limited evidence | — | R1 | 100% | 68% | 5% | <1% | — |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.