2026-27 projections
Coppa Italia
Season outcomes from 4,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Sep 10, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Undrawn rounds and lower-division strengths are approximated. Aggregate placeholder rows represent several clubs. Some hosting and entry/bracket constraints are simplified. Completed first legs are retained. Extra time uses proportional scoring rates and penalties are a 50/50 split.
| Club | World | Enters | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Internazionale | #8 | R16 | 100% | 84% | 62% | 44% | 26% |
| 2Juventus | #23 | R16 | 100% | 78% | 44% | 28% | 15% |
| 3AS Roma | #28 | R16 | 100% | 76% | 40% | 24% | 13% |
| 4Atalanta | #36 | R16 | 100% | 75% | 41% | 20% | 10% |
| 5AC Milan | #39 | R16 | 100% | 75% | 42% | 19% | 9% |
| 6Napoli | #42 | R16 | 100% | 73% | 39% | 18% | 9% |
| 7Como | #51 | R16 | 100% | 70% | 36% | 16% | 7% |
| 8Bologna | #81 | R16 | 100% | 66% | 22% | 10% | 4% |
| 9Fiorentina | #89 | R1 | 73% | 23% | 9% | 3% | 1% |
| 10Sassuolo | #141 | R1 | 100% | 29% | 11% | 3% | 1% |
| 11Palermo | #181 | R1 | 100% | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% |
| 12Udinese | #191 | R1 | 100% | 27% | 10% | 3% | 1% |
| 13Monza | #217 | R1 | 100% | 26% | 10% | 3% | <1% |
| 14Genoa | #192 | R1 | 70% | 19% | 8% | 2% | <1% |
| 15Cremonese | #322 | R1 | 100% | 21% | 7% | 2% | <1% |
| 16Verona | #363 | R1 | 100% | 21% | 5% | <1% | <1% |
| 17Pisa | #359 | R1 | 28% | 5% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 18Sudtirol | #450 | R1 | 30% | 5% | 1% | <1% | — |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.