2026 projections
Copa do Brasil
Season outcomes from 4,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Sep 10, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Undrawn rounds and lower-division strengths are approximated. Aggregate placeholder rows represent several clubs. Some hosting and entry/bracket constraints are simplified. Completed first legs are retained. Extra time uses proportional scoring rates and penalties are a 50/50 split.
| Club | World | Enters | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Palmeiras | #15 | R5 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 75% | 49% |
| 2Atlético-MG | #94 | R5 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 49% | 21% |
| 3Grêmio | #130 | R5 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 40% | 16% |
| 4Vasco da Gama | #167 | R5 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 36% | 14% |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.