2026 projections
Copa do Brasil
Season outcomes from 4,000 simulations of the remaining schedule. Use the arrow beside a club for its finishing-position distribution, where available.
As of Oct 20, 2026
What these probabilities include
- Undrawn rounds and lower-division strengths are approximated. Aggregate placeholder rows represent several clubs. Some hosting and entry/bracket constraints are simplified. Completed first legs are retained. Extra time uses proportional scoring rates and penalties are a 50/50 split.
| Club | World | Enters | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Palmeiras | #14 | R5 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 78% | 51% |
| 2Atlético-MG | #89 | R5 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 57% | 24% |
| 3Grêmio | #142 | R5 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 43% | 15% |
| 4Vasco da Gama | #118 | R5 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 22% | 11% |
Probabilities are shares of simulated seasons. Columns with several qualifying places sum to the number of places; nested outcomes overlap. Rounding can cause small differences. Cells shade with likelihood; the printed number is the estimate.