Senate · 2026
Wyoming Senate
James W. Byrd (D)v.Harriet Hageman (R)SAFE R
Open seat, currently Republican.
Projected margin
R+33.9
Nine in ten outcomes: R+17 to R+51
Chance of winning
>99%
Harriet Hageman
Polls alone
—
No public general-election polls yet.
Fundamentals alone
R+33.9
Weight in projection: 100%.
Before any poll
What the fundamentals say
A regression on past Senate races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+5.3).
What each term adds to the estimate
BaselineD+0.5
Partisan leanR+33.0
National environmentD+3.3
Incumbency0.0
Incumbent's last over/under-performance0.0
Fundraising gapR+4.7
Fundamentals estimateR+33.9
Input: partisan lean
R+44.3
Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 (and 2020).
Input: raised from itemized individual donors, through June 30
$6K D · $427K R
FEC filings; the model uses the log of the ratio.
Handicappers, for comparison
Cook: Safe R · Sabato: Safe R · Inside Elections: Safe R
Not an input to the projection.
History
Recent results for this office
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Scott D. Morrow | John Barrasso | R+51.0 |
| 2020 | Merav Ben-David | Cynthia M. Lummis | R+46.1 |
| 2018 | Gary Trauner | John Barrasso | R+36.9 |
| 2014 | Charlie Hardy | Michael B. Enzi | R+54.7 |