Senate · 2026
West Virginia Senate
Rachel Fetty Anderson (D)v.Shelley Moore Capito (R)SAFE R
Incumbent: Shelley Moore Capito, currently Republican.
Projected margin
R+37.8
Nine in ten outcomes: R+21 to R+55
Chance of winning
>99%
Shelley Moore Capito
Polls alone
—
No public general-election polls yet.
Fundamentals alone
R+37.8
Weight in projection: 100%.
Before any poll
What the fundamentals say
A regression on past Senate races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+5.4).
What each term adds to the estimate
BaselineD+0.5
Partisan leanR+30.1
National environmentD+3.4
IncumbencyR+1.8
Incumbent's last over/under-performanceR+2.4
Fundraising gapR+7.3
Fundamentals estimateR+37.8
Input: partisan lean
R+40.4
Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 (and 2020).
Input: raised from itemized individual donors, through June 30
$10K D · $2.3M R
FEC filings; the model uses the log of the ratio.
Handicappers, for comparison
Cook: Safe R · Sabato: Safe R · Inside Elections: Safe R
Not an input to the projection.
History
Recent results for this office
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Glenn Elliott | Jim Justice | R+41.0 |
| 2020 | Paula Jean Swearengin | Shelley Moore Capito | R+43.3 |
| 2018 | Joe Manchin, III | Patrick Morrisey | D+3.2 |
| 2014 | Natalie E. Tennant | Shelley Moore Capito | R+27.7 |