Senate · 2026
Oregon Senate
Jeff Merkley (D)v.David Brock Smith (R)SAFE D
Incumbent: Jeff Merkley, currently Democratic.
Projected margin
D+24.6
Nine in ten outcomes: D+42 to D+8
Chance of winning
99%
Jeff Merkley
Polls alone
—
No public general-election polls yet.
Fundamentals alone
D+24.6
Weight in projection: 100%.
Before any poll
What the fundamentals say
A regression on past Senate races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+5.3).
What each term adds to the estimate
BaselineD+0.5
Partisan leanD+11.7
National environmentD+3.3
IncumbencyD+1.8
Incumbent's last over/under-performanceD+1.9
Fundraising gapD+5.3
Fundamentals estimateD+24.6
Input: partisan lean
D+15.8
Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 (and 2020).
Input: raised from itemized individual donors, through June 30
$2.1M D · $75K R
FEC filings; the model uses the log of the ratio.
Handicappers, for comparison
Cook: Safe D · Sabato: Safe D · Inside Elections: Safe D
Not an input to the projection.
History
Recent results for this office
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Ron Wyden | Jo Rae Perkins | D+14.9 |
| 2020 | Jeff Merkley | Jo Rae Perkins | D+17.6 |
| 2016 | Ron Wyden | Mark Callahan | D+23.3 |
| 2014 | Jeff Merkley | Monica Wehby | D+18.9 |