Senate · 2026
New Jersey Senate
Cory Booker (D)v.Justin Murphy (R)SAFE D
Incumbent: Cory Booker, currently Democratic.
Projected margin
D+22.0
Nine in ten outcomes: D+39 to D+5
Chance of winning
98%
Cory Booker
Polls alone
—
No public general-election polls yet.
Fundamentals alone
D+22.0
Weight in projection: 100%.
Before any poll
What the fundamentals say
A regression on past Senate races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+6.2).
What each term adds to the estimate
BaselineD+0.4
Partisan leanD+5.5
National environmentD+3.8
IncumbencyD+2.1
Incumbent's last over/under-performanceD+0.8
Fundraising gapD+9.3
Fundamentals estimateD+22.0
Input: partisan lean
D+7.4
Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 (and 2020).
Input: raised from itemized individual donors, through June 30
$5.0M D · $7K R
FEC filings; the model uses the log of the ratio.
Handicappers, for comparison
Cook: Safe D · Sabato: Safe D · Inside Elections: Safe D
Not an input to the projection.
History
Recent results for this office
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Andy Kim | Curtis Bashaw | D+9.6 |
| 2020 | Cory A. Booker | Rikin Mehta | D+16.3 |
| 2018 | Bob Menendez | Bob Hugin | D+11.2 |
| 2014 | Cory A. Booker | Jeff Bell | D+13.5 |