Senate · 2026
Delaware Senate
Chris Coons (D)v.Michael Katz (R)SAFE D
Incumbent: Chris Coons, currently Democratic.
Projected margin
D+28.2
Nine in ten outcomes: D+45 to D+11
Chance of winning
>99%
Chris Coons
Polls alone
—
No public general-election polls yet.
Fundamentals alone
D+28.2
Weight in projection: 100%.
Before any poll
What the fundamentals say
A regression on past Senate races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+6.2).
What each term adds to the estimate
BaselineD+0.4
Partisan leanD+12.0
National environmentD+3.8
IncumbencyD+2.1
Incumbent's last over/under-performanceD+2.9
Fundraising gapD+6.8
Fundamentals estimateD+28.2
Input: partisan lean
D+16.2
Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 (and 2020).
Input: raised from itemized individual donors, through June 30
$1.5M D · $12K R
FEC filings; the model uses the log of the ratio.
Handicappers, for comparison
Cook: Safe D · Sabato: Safe D · Inside Elections: Safe D
Not an input to the projection.
History
Recent results for this office
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Lisa Blunt Rochester | Eric Hansen | D+17.1 |
| 2020 | Christopher A. Coons | Lauren E. Witzke | D+21.5 |
| 2018 | Thomas R. Carper | Rob Arlett | D+22.1 |
| 2014 | Christopher A. Coons | Kevin Wade | D+13.6 |