House · 2026
North Carolina’s 13th District
Paul Barringer (D)v.Brad Knott (R)SAFE R
Incumbent: Brad Knott, currently Republican. District lines changed since 2024.
Projected margin
R+11.3
Nine in ten outcomes: R+2 to R+21
Chance of winning
97%
Brad Knott
Polls alone
—
No public general-election polls yet.
Fundamentals alone
R+11.3
Weight in projection: 100%.
Before any poll
What the fundamentals say
A regression on past House races, fit without looking at this year. The national environment term uses the generic ballot after its historical correction (D+6.3).
What each term adds to the estimate
BaselineD+0.8
Partisan leanR+12.7
National environmentD+4.2
IncumbencyR+3.7
Incumbent's last over/under-performanceD+0.5
Fundraising gapR+0.4
Fundamentals estimateR+11.3
Input: partisan lean
R+15.0
Presidential vote relative to the nation, 2024 on this year's lines.
Input: raised from itemized individual donors, through June 30
$294K D · $409K R
FEC filings; the model uses the log of the ratio.
Handicappers, for comparison
Cook: Safe R · Sabato: Safe R · Inside Elections: Safe R
Not an input to the projection.