Pollster record · how records are scored
DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department
Method: live phone mix · scored polls from 2012 to 2024 · 100% of scored polls were for a party or campaign
Versus the field
+0.05
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk +0.58; 15% own record)
Average miss
6.3
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.3
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
40
40 races · 3 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 8 | 3.1 | −3.3 | D+1.5 |
| 2014 | 3 | 8.1 | +2.8 | D+2.0 |
| 2016 | 9 | 6.4 | +1.6 | D+2.8 |
| 2018 | 5 | 6.9 | +0.8 | R+0.4 |
| 2020 | 7 | 10.3 | +3.3 | D+2.0 |
| 2022 | 3 | 4.5 | −4.3 | D+1.6 |
| 2024 | 5 | 5.0 | +2.4 | R+0.9 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2026 | VA-1 | Shannon Taylor v. Robert Wittman | R+1 |
| Jul 30, 2026 | AL-2 | Shomari Figures v. Rhett Marques | Even |
| Jul 30, 2026 | KY-6 | Zach Dembo v. Ralph Alvarado | Even |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2024 | 2024 House, VA-2D-ALIGNED | Even | R+3.8 | D+3.8 | D+0.8 |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 2024 House, MI-10D-ALIGNED | Even | R+6.1 | D+6.1 | D+2.3 |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 2024 House, NJ-7D-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+5.4 | D+3.4 | D+1.5 |
| Oct 2, 2024 | 2024 House, WI-1D-ALIGNED | R+3 | R+10.2 | D+7.2 | D+4.1 |
| Oct 1, 2024 | 2024 House, IA-1D-ALIGNED | D+4 | R+0.2 | D+4.2 | — |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 2022 House, PA-12D-ALIGNED | D+14 | D+12.4 | D+1.6 | — |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 2022 House, RI-2D-ALIGNED | Even | D+3.7 | R+3.7 | R+10.9 |
| Aug 8, 2022 | 2022 House, NY-19D-ALIGNED | R+3 | D+5.3 | R+8.3 | R+12.2 |
| Oct 22, 2020 | 2020 House, TX-3D-ALIGNED | D+2 | R+12.2 | D+14.2 | D+7.3 |
| Oct 20, 2020 | 2020 House, WA-3D-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+13.0 | D+11.0 | D+7.1 |
| Oct 20, 2020 | 2020 House, CO-3D-ALIGNED | D+1 | R+6.2 | D+7.2 | D+4.3 |
| Oct 9, 2020 | 2020 House, MI-3D-ALIGNED | D+5 | R+5.9 | D+10.9 | D+3.5 |
| Oct 6, 2020 | 2020 House, NC-8D-ALIGNED | D+3 | R+6.6 | D+9.6 | D+0.7 |
| Oct 4, 2020 | 2020 House, FL-15D-ALIGNED | R+3 | R+10.8 | D+7.8 | D+2.5 |
| May 10, 2020 | 2020 House, CA-25D-ALIGNED | D+2 | R+9.7 | D+11.7 | — |
| Oct 10, 2018 | 2018 House, MI-6D-ALIGNED | R+3 | R+4.6 | D+1.6 | D+2.1 |
| Oct 10, 2018 | 2018 House, PA-16D-ALIGNED | R+3 | R+4.3 | D+1.3 | D+2.0 |
| Sep 27, 2018 | 2018 House, IL-12D-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+6.2 | D+4.7 | D+1.4 |
| Sep 16, 2018 | 2018 House, WV-3D-ALIGNED | D+4 | R+12.7 | D+16.7 | D+9.5 |
| Sep 13, 2018 | 2018 House, NC-13D-ALIGNED | D+4 | R+6.0 | D+10.0 | D+1.7 |
| Oct 20, 2016 | 2016 House, UT-4D-ALIGNED | R+8 | R+12.4 | D+4.5 | R+2.7 |
| Oct 17, 2016 | 2016 House, AK-1D-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+14.3 | D+12.3 | R+0.7 |
| Oct 10, 2016 | 2016 House, FL-7D-ALIGNED | D+2 | D+3.0 | R+1.0 | R+8.7 |
| Oct 10, 2016 | 2016 House, NJ-5D-ALIGNED | D+6 | D+4.4 | D+1.6 | R+1.3 |
| Oct 3, 2016 | 2016 House, MI-8D-ALIGNED | R+6 | R+16.9 | D+10.9 | D+0.3 |
| Sep 27, 2016 | 2016 House, NV-3D-ALIGNED | D+3 | D+1.3 | D+1.7 | R+0.3 |
| Sep 24, 2016 | 2016 House, CA-49D-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+0.5 | R+1.5 | R+2.0 |
| Sep 13, 2016 | 2016 House, NY-19D-ALIGNED | D+5 | R+3.2 | D+8.2 | D+2.8 |
| Sep 12, 2016 | 2016 House, MN-3D-ALIGNED | D+2 | R+13.7 | D+15.7 | D+4.7 |
| Sep 30, 2014 | 2014 House, FL-26D-ALIGNED | D+5 | R+2.9 | D+7.9 | D+0.9 |
| Sep 27, 2014 | 2014 House, NJ-3D-ALIGNED | D+1 | R+9.6 | D+10.6 | D+4.0 |
| Sep 13, 2014 | 2014 House, MA-6D-ALIGNED | D+8 | D+13.8 | R+5.8 | R+9.8 |
| Oct 14, 2012 | 2012 House, NE-2D-ALIGNED | R+4 | R+1.6 | R+2.4 | R+9.6 |
| Oct 14, 2012 | 2012 House, IL-10D-ALIGNED | D+1 | D+1.3 | R+0.3 | R+5.9 |
| Oct 12, 2012 | 2012 House, IL-13D-ALIGNED | D+6 | R+0.3 | D+6.3 | R+0.1 |
| Oct 10, 2012 | 2012 House, FL-22D-ALIGNED | D+10 | D+9.3 | D+0.7 | R+6.7 |
| Oct 4, 2012 | 2012 House, IL-8D-ALIGNED | D+10 | D+9.5 | D+0.5 | R+0.5 |
| Sep 13, 2012 | 2012 House, CO-6D-ALIGNED | R+3 | R+2.0 | R+1.0 | — |
| Sep 10, 2012 | 2012 House, RI-1D-ALIGNED | D+6 | D+12.1 | R+6.1 | R+8.0 |
| Sep 10, 2012 | 2012 House, CA-10D-ALIGNED | D+2 | R+5.4 | D+7.4 | R+0.5 |