Pollster record · how records are scored
Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates
Method: live phone mix · scored polls from 2000 to 2020
Versus the field
−0.17
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −3.30; 4% own record). A thin record: too few scored polls to say much.
Average miss
4.6
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+0.2
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
12
10 races · 1 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 1 | 10.9 | +4.5 | D+4.9 |
| 2002 | 4 | 3.4 | −3.0 | R+2.7 |
| 2004 | 4 | 4.8 | −3.1 | R+4.4 |
| 2010 | 1 | 5.3 | −9.1 | R+3.6 |
| 2018 | 1 | 6.1 | −1.7 | R+1.4 |
| 2020 | 1 | 0.1 | −5.6 | R+4.0 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | Senate OK | N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas v. Kevin Hern | R+24 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2020 | 2020 House, OK-5 | R+4 | R+4.1 | D+0.1 | D+4.2 |
| Sep 29, 2018 | 2018 Governor, OK | R+6 | R+12.1 | D+6.1 | D+7.5 |
| Oct 10, 2010 | 2010 House, KS-4R-ALIGNED | R+17 | R+22.3 | D+5.3 | D+12.9 |
| Oct 25, 2004 | 2004 President, OK | R+28 | R+31.1 | D+3.1 | D+3.5 |
| Oct 25, 2004 | 2004 Senate, OK | R+5 | R+11.5 | D+6.5 | D+11.9 |
| Oct 10, 2004 | 2004 President, OK | R+34 | R+31.1 | R+2.9 | D+3.5 |
| Oct 10, 2004 | 2004 Senate, OK | R+5 | R+11.5 | D+6.5 | D+11.9 |
| Oct 19, 2002 | 2002 House, OK-4 | R+7 | R+7.7 | D+0.7 | D+2.8 |
| Oct 6, 2002 | 2002 Governor, KSR-ALIGNED | D+9 | D+7.8 | D+1.2 | D+4.9 |
| Sep 23, 2002 | 2002 Governor, OK | R+8 | D+0.7 | R+8.7 | R+5.1 |
| Sep 18, 2002 | 2002 Senate, OKR-ALIGNED | R+24 | R+21.0 | R+3.0 | D+6.1 |
| Sep 26, 2000 | 2000 President, OK | R+11 | R+21.9 | D+10.9 | D+6.0 |