Pollster record · how records are scored
Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership
Method: live phone · scored polls from 2008 to 2025
Versus the field
+0.07
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk +0.40; 14% own record)
Average miss
5.1
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.3
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
40
21 races · 1 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 3 | 7.6 | +3.1 | R+5.7 |
| 2009 | 1 | 3.6 | −3.2 | R+2.8 |
| 2010 | 1 | 9.7 | +5.2 | D+2.1 |
| 2012 | 1 | 4.3 | −3.3 | D+3.5 |
| 2013 | 2 | 5.5 | +1.6 | D+1.7 |
| 2014 | 3 | 12.9 | +3.6 | D+3.8 |
| 2016 | 6 | 3.5 | +1.0 | D+2.6 |
| 2017 | 5 | 2.9 | −3.8 | D+2.8 |
| 2018 | 3 | 4.1 | −0.1 | D+0.1 |
| 2020 | 5 | 3.4 | −0.9 | R+1.3 |
| 2021 | 2 | 4.4 | +0.8 | D+1.0 |
| 2022 | 1 | 3.4 | −2.4 | — |
| 2024 | 4 | 5.1 | +1.4 | D+4.2 |
| 2025 | 3 | 5.7 | −1.6 | D+0.7 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | VA-2 | Elaine Luria v. Jen Kiggans | D+3 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2025-GOV-VA | D+7 | D+15.4 | R+8.4 | R+6.4 |
| Oct 1, 2025 | 2025-GOV-VA | D+10 | D+15.4 | R+5.4 | R+6.4 |
| Sep 14, 2025 | 2025-GOV-VA | D+12 | D+15.4 | R+3.4 | R+6.4 |
| Oct 20, 2024 | 2024 House, VA-2 | R+1 | R+3.8 | D+2.8 | R+0.1 |
| Oct 4, 2024 | 2024 President, VA | D+11 | D+5.8 | D+5.2 | D+0.9 |
| Oct 4, 2024 | 2024 Senate, VA | D+20 | D+8.9 | D+11.1 | D+0.2 |
| Sep 10, 2024 | 2024 House, VA-2 | R+5 | R+3.8 | R+1.2 | R+0.1 |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2022 House, VA-2 | Even | R+3.4 | D+3.4 | — |
| Oct 25, 2021 | 2021 Governor, VA | D+1 | R+1.9 | D+2.9 | D+3.4 |
| Oct 6, 2021 | 2021 Governor, VA | D+4 | R+1.9 | D+5.9 | D+3.4 |
| Oct 27, 2020 | 2020 Senate, VA | D+20 | D+12.1 | D+7.9 | D+3.2 |
| Oct 27, 2020 | 2020 President, VA | D+12 | D+10.1 | D+1.9 | D+2.1 |
| Oct 18, 2020 | 2020 House, VA-2 | D+7 | D+5.7 | D+1.3 | — |
| Sep 21, 2020 | 2020 Senate, VA | D+13 | D+12.1 | D+0.9 | D+3.2 |
| Sep 21, 2020 | 2020 President, VA | D+5 | D+10.1 | R+5.1 | D+2.1 |
| Oct 27, 2018 | 2018 House, VA-7 | D+2 | D+1.9 | D+0.1 | R+3.7 |
| Oct 12, 2018 | 2018 House, VA-2 | R+7 | D+2.2 | R+8.7 | R+3.3 |
| Oct 2, 2018 | 2018 House, VA-10 | D+9 | D+12.4 | R+3.4 | R+5.4 |
| Nov 1, 2017 | 2017 Governor, VA | D+6 | D+8.9 | R+2.9 | R+5.7 |
| Oct 22, 2017 | 2017 Governor, VA | D+7 | D+8.9 | R+1.9 | R+5.7 |
| Oct 11, 2017 | 2017 Governor, VA | D+4 | D+8.9 | R+4.9 | R+5.7 |
| Oct 4, 2017 | 2017 Governor, VA | D+7 | D+8.9 | R+1.9 | R+5.7 |
| Sep 17, 2017 | 2017 Governor, VA | D+6 | D+8.9 | R+2.9 | R+5.7 |
| Nov 3, 2016 | 2016 President, VA | D+6 | D+5.3 | D+0.7 | D+0.9 |
| Oct 25, 2016 | 2016 President, VA | D+7 | D+5.3 | D+1.7 | D+0.9 |
| Oct 18, 2016 | 2016 President, VA | D+12 | D+5.3 | D+6.7 | D+0.9 |
| Oct 13, 2016 | 2016 President, VA | D+15 | D+5.3 | D+9.7 | D+0.9 |
| Sep 29, 2016 | 2016 President, VA | D+7 | D+5.3 | D+1.7 | D+0.9 |
| Sep 19, 2016 | 2016 President, VA | D+6 | D+5.3 | D+0.7 | D+0.9 |
| Oct 26, 2014 | 2014 Senate, VA | D+7 | D+0.8 | D+6.2 | D+9.1 |
| Oct 2, 2014 | 2014 Senate, VA | D+12 | D+0.8 | D+11.2 | D+9.1 |
| Sep 4, 2014 | 2014 Senate, VA | D+22 | D+0.8 | D+21.2 | D+9.1 |
| Oct 27, 2013 | 2013 Governor, VA | D+7 | D+2.5 | D+4.5 | D+3.8 |
| Oct 3, 2013 | 2013 Governor, VA | D+9 | D+2.5 | D+6.5 | D+3.8 |
| Oct 5, 2012 | 2012 House, VA-2 | R+12 | R+7.7 | R+4.3 | R+7.8 |
| Oct 18, 2010 | 2010 House, VA-2 | R+1 | R+10.7 | D+9.7 | D+7.6 |
| Oct 10, 2009 | 2009 Governor, VA | R+14 | R+17.4 | D+3.6 | D+6.3 |
| Oct 13, 2008 | 2008 President, VA | D+6 | D+6.3 | R+0.3 | R+1.5 |
| Sep 12, 2008 | 2008 Senate, VA | D+24 | D+31.3 | R+7.3 | R+2.9 |
| Sep 12, 2008 | 2008 President, VA | R+9 | D+6.3 | R+15.3 | R+1.5 |