Pollster record · how records are scored
Victory Research
Method: live phone · scored polls from 2000 to 2022
Versus the field
+0.12
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk +1.56; 7% own record). A thin record: too few scored polls to say much.
Average miss
6.2
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+0.1
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
18
15 races · 1 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 1 | 11.0 | +4.5 | R+5.3 |
| 2004 | 3 | 4.9 | +1.7 | R+0.5 |
| 2006 | 1 | 13.4 | +9.1 | R+8.8 |
| 2016 | 3 | 3.3 | −1.0 | R+1.7 |
| 2018 | 2 | 0.3 | −2.2 | R+1.9 |
| 2020 | 6 | 6.3 | +1.6 | D+3.8 |
| 2022 | 2 | 12.0 | +6.5 | R+7.4 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2025 | Governor IL | JB Pritzker v. Darren Bailey | D+20 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2022 | 2022 Governor, IL | D+8 | D+12.5 | R+4.9 | D+2.5 |
| Oct 4, 2022 | 2022 House, IL-10R-ALIGNED | D+7 | D+26.0 | R+19.0 | — |
| Nov 1, 2020 | 2020 House, IL-17 | D+11 | D+4.1 | D+6.5 | D+5.3 |
| Nov 1, 2020 | 2020 Senate, IL | D+25 | D+16.1 | D+8.9 | D+5.9 |
| Nov 1, 2020 | 2020 President, IL | D+16 | D+17.0 | R+1.1 | R+1.2 |
| Nov 1, 2020 | 2020 House, IL-6 | D+14 | D+7.4 | D+6.8 | — |
| Nov 1, 2020 | 2020 House, IL-3 | D+23 | D+12.8 | D+10.5 | R+6.7 |
| Sep 26, 2020 | 2020 President, IL | D+13 | D+17.0 | R+3.9 | R+1.2 |
| Nov 3, 2018 | 2018 Governor, IL | D+16 | D+15.7 | D+0.3 | D+2.1 |
| Oct 2, 2018 | 2018 Governor, IL | D+16 | D+15.7 | D+0.2 | D+2.1 |
| Oct 17, 2016 | 2016 President, IL | D+15 | D+17.1 | R+2.0 | D+0.1 |
| Oct 17, 2016 | 2016 Senate, IL | D+11 | D+15.1 | R+4.4 | R+4.9 |
| Sep 23, 2016 | 2016 President, IL | D+14 | D+17.1 | R+3.6 | D+0.1 |
| Nov 4, 2006 | 2006 Senate, PA | D+4 | D+17.4 | R+13.4 | R+4.5 |
| Oct 30, 2004 | 2004 House, IL-8 | R+8 | D+3.4 | R+11.4 | R+9.3 |
| Oct 30, 2004 | 2004 Senate, IL | D+46 | D+42.9 | D+3.1 | D+3.2 |
| Oct 30, 2004 | 2004 President, IL | D+10 | D+10.3 | R+0.3 | R+1.1 |
| Oct 8, 2000 | 2000 President, IL | D+1 | D+12.0 | R+11.0 | R+5.7 |