Pollster record · how records are scored
TargetSmart
Method: live phone · scored polls from 2016 to 2020
Versus the field
+0.10
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk +1.70; 5% own record). A thin record: too few scored polls to say much.
Average miss
7.3
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.2
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
9
7 races · 1 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 6 | 7.3 | +1.3 | D+1.6 |
| 2018 | 2 | 7.9 | +3.4 | D+3.7 |
| 2020 | 1 | 5.8 | +0.3 | D+1.8 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Governor TN | Jerri Green v. Marsha Blackburn | R+9 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2020 | 2020 President, PA | D+7 | D+1.2 | D+5.8 | D+4.0 |
| Sep 13, 2018 | 2018 Governor, AZD-ALIGNED | R+1 | R+14.2 | D+13.2 | D+1.7 |
| Sep 13, 2018 | 2018 Senate, AZD-ALIGNED | D+5 | D+2.3 | D+2.7 | R+1.1 |
| Nov 2, 2016 | 2016 President, OH | R+3 | R+8.1 | D+5.1 | D+7.6 |
| Oct 27, 2016 | 2016 Senate, FL | R+6 | R+7.7 | D+1.7 | D+2.3 |
| Oct 27, 2016 | 2016 President, FL | D+8 | R+1.2 | D+9.2 | D+3.0 |
| Oct 5, 2016 | 2016 President, OH | D+3 | R+8.1 | D+11.0 | D+7.6 |
| Sep 19, 2016 | 2016 Senate, OH | R+15 | R+20.9 | D+5.9 | D+6.0 |
| Sep 19, 2016 | 2016 President, OH | D+3 | R+8.1 | D+11.1 | D+7.6 |