Pollster record · how records are scored
Braun Research
Method: live phone · scored polls from 2010 to 2020
Versus the field
+0.01
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk +0.04; 5% own record). A thin record: too few scored polls to say much.
Average miss
7.4
points on the margin, as published
House effect
None
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
14
12 races · 2 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 5 | 10.6 | +3.3 | D+8.9 |
| 2011 | 1 | 7.6 | +0.1 | Even |
| 2016 | 3 | 4.0 | −2.7 | R+1.1 |
| 2018 | 2 | 3.6 | −2.4 | R+2.0 |
| 2020 | 3 | 7.7 | +0.4 | R+12.1 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21, 2026 | Governor VT | Amanda Janoo v. Phil Scott | R+10 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | VT-AL | Becca Balint v. Gerald Malloy | D+17 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2020 | 2020 Governor, VT | R+31 | R+41.1 | D+9.8 | — |
| Sep 15, 2020 | 2020 House, VT-1 | D+39 | D+40.3 | R+1.3 | — |
| Sep 15, 2020 | 2020 President, VT | D+23 | D+35.4 | R+12.1 | R+0.1 |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 2018 Governor, VT | R+14 | R+14.9 | D+0.9 | D+4.0 |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 2018 House, VT-1 | D+37 | D+43.3 | R+6.3 | R+5.3 |
| Oct 21, 2016 | 2016 Governor, VT | R+7 | R+8.7 | D+1.7 | D+5.6 |
| Oct 21, 2016 | 2016 Senate, VT | D+37 | D+28.2 | D+8.8 | D+10.8 |
| Oct 21, 2016 | 2016 President, VT | D+28 | D+26.4 | D+1.6 | R+1.0 |
| Oct 18, 2011 | 2011 Governor, KY | D+28 | D+20.4 | D+7.6 | D+7.6 |
| Oct 26, 2010 | 2010 Senate, KY | R+8 | R+11.5 | D+4.0 | D+5.0 |
| Oct 18, 2010 | 2010 House, KY-3 | D+27 | D+10.7 | D+15.8 | R+4.7 |
| Oct 5, 2010 | 2010 Senate, KY | R+4 | R+11.5 | D+7.6 | D+5.0 |
| Sep 21, 2010 | 2010 House, KY-6 | D+14 | D+0.3 | D+13.7 | D+8.0 |
| Sep 20, 2010 | 2010 House, KY-3 | D+23 | D+10.7 | D+12.1 | R+4.7 |