Pollster record · how records are scored
Strategies 360
Method: live phone mix · scored polls from 2012 to 2022
Versus the field
−0.16
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −1.22; 10% own record)
Average miss
4.3
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.1
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
18
18 races · 1 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 2 | 2.5 | −0.0 | R+2.1 |
| 2014 | 2 | 1.6 | −1.1 | D+3.1 |
| 2016 | 2 | 0.8 | −3.0 | D+1.8 |
| 2018 | 1 | 0.6 | −4.4 | D+1.4 |
| 2020 | 10 | 6.5 | −0.2 | D+0.2 |
| 2022 | 1 | 2.5 | −6.1 | D+4.2 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | NV-2 | Teresa Benitez-Thompson v. David Flippo | R+3 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 2022 | 2022 Senate, WA | D+12 | D+14.5 | R+2.5 | R+6.7 |
| Oct 20, 2020 | 2020 Governor, MT | R+7 | R+12.9 | D+5.9 | D+8.0 |
| Oct 20, 2020 | 2020 Senate, MT | R+1 | R+10.0 | D+9.0 | D+7.6 |
| Oct 20, 2020 | 2020 President, MT | R+8 | R+16.4 | D+8.4 | D+9.0 |
| Oct 20, 2020 | 2020 House, NM-2D-ALIGNED | D+1 | R+7.4 | D+8.4 | D+7.9 |
| Oct 20, 2020 | 2020 House, MT-1 | Even | R+12.8 | D+12.8 | D+11.9 |
| Oct 13, 2020 | 2020 House, CA-50D-ALIGNED | Even | R+7.9 | D+7.9 | D+1.9 |
| Oct 1, 2020 | 2020 House, CA-22D-ALIGNED | R+5 | R+8.5 | D+3.5 | — |
| Sep 29, 2020 | 2020 President, AZ | D+4 | D+0.3 | D+3.7 | D+2.3 |
| Sep 14, 2020 | 2020 Governor, WA | D+16 | D+13.4 | D+2.6 | D+1.3 |
| Sep 14, 2020 | 2020 President, WA | D+22 | D+19.2 | D+2.8 | D+2.1 |
| Sep 13, 2018 | 2018 House, CA-22D-ALIGNED | R+6 | R+5.4 | R+0.6 | R+5.9 |
| Oct 1, 2016 | 2016 Governor, WA | D+10 | D+8.8 | D+1.2 | D+0.6 |
| Oct 1, 2016 | 2016 President, WA | D+16 | D+15.7 | D+0.3 | R+2.7 |
| Oct 22, 2014 | 2014 Governor, CO | D+3 | D+3.3 | R+0.3 | R+2.4 |
| Oct 22, 2014 | 2014 Senate, CO | D+1 | R+1.9 | D+2.9 | R+1.1 |
| Oct 19, 2012 | 2012 Governor, WA | Even | D+3.1 | R+3.1 | R+0.1 |
| Oct 19, 2012 | 2012 President, WA | D+13 | D+14.9 | R+1.9 | R+0.7 |