Pollster record · how records are scored
SEA Polling & Strategic Design
Method: live phone · scored polls from 2000 to 2022
Versus the field
+0.04
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk +0.49; 6% own record). A thin record: too few scored polls to say much.
Average miss
4.7
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+0.1
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
16
13 races · 2 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 2 | 4.6 | +1.2 | D+4.1 |
| 2002 | 2 | 5.8 | −2.0 | R+1.2 |
| 2004 | 2 | 3.1 | −1.0 | R+0.1 |
| 2006 | 2 | 2.4 | −2.3 | D+3.6 |
| 2008 | 2 | 4.5 | +1.5 | D+0.5 |
| 2010 | 1 | 7.1 | +3.4 | D+1.6 |
| 2014 | 2 | 1.4 | −0.7 | R+3.6 |
| 2018 | 2 | 4.1 | +0.7 | R+4.4 |
| 2022 | 1 | 15.3 | +6.6 | R+1.1 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 2026 | FL-9 | Darren Soto v. Dan Green | Even |
| Aug 29, 2026 | FL-16 | Kelly Kirschner v. Sydney Gruters | D+1 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2022 | 2022 House, FL-27D-ALIGNED | D+1 | R+14.6 | D+15.3 | D+12.5 |
| Oct 20, 2018 | 2018 Governor, FLD-ALIGNED | D+6 | R+0.4 | D+6.4 | D+3.8 |
| Oct 20, 2018 | 2018 Senate, FLD-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+0.1 | R+1.9 | D+1.6 |
| Oct 30, 2014 | 2014 Governor, FL | R+3 | R+1.1 | R+1.9 | D+2.2 |
| Oct 28, 2014 | 2014 Governor, FL | R+2 | R+1.1 | R+0.9 | D+2.2 |
| Oct 11, 2010 | 2010 Governor, FLD-ALIGNED | D+6 | R+1.1 | D+7.1 | D+1.7 |
| Oct 21, 2008 | 2008 President, FL | D+7 | D+2.8 | D+4.2 | R+0.8 |
| Sep 16, 2008 | 2008 President, FL | R+2 | D+2.8 | R+4.8 | R+0.8 |
| Oct 24, 2006 | 2006 Governor, FL | R+6 | R+7.1 | D+1.1 | R+3.2 |
| Oct 24, 2006 | 2006 Senate, FL | D+26 | D+22.2 | D+3.8 | D+0.8 |
| Oct 20, 2004 | 2004 President, FL | Even | R+5.0 | D+5.0 | D+4.0 |
| Oct 20, 2004 | 2004 Senate, FL | Even | R+1.1 | D+1.1 | D+2.3 |
| Oct 24, 2002 | 2002 Governor, FL | R+8 | R+12.8 | D+4.8 | D+7.1 |
| Sep 25, 2002 | 2002 Governor, FL | R+6 | R+12.8 | D+6.8 | D+7.1 |
| Oct 5, 2000 | 2000 President, FL | D+3 | Even | D+3.0 | D+1.2 |
| Oct 5, 2000 | 2000 Senate, FL | D+11 | D+4.9 | D+6.1 | R+0.3 |