Pollster record · how records are scored
Research & Polling Inc.
Method: live phone · scored polls from 1998 to 2024
Versus the field
−0.19
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −1.02; 20% own record)
Average miss
4.8
points on the margin, as published
House effect
None
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
89
50 races · 2 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | 2 | 4.0 | −3.8 | R+4.7 |
| 2000 | 3 | 3.2 | +0.0 | R+2.0 |
| 2002 | 12 | 6.8 | −0.3 | R+3.1 |
| 2004 | 7 | 5.9 | +0.2 | D+0.6 |
| 2006 | 10 | 4.1 | −4.3 | D+5.7 |
| 2008 | 9 | 7.0 | +1.1 | R+0.9 |
| 2010 | 6 | 5.2 | −0.9 | D+1.6 |
| 2012 | 10 | 3.1 | −1.3 | D+1.1 |
| 2014 | 4 | 2.5 | −2.4 | R+3.8 |
| 2016 | 2 | 3.7 | +1.1 | R+3.7 |
| 2018 | 8 | 6.9 | −1.2 | D+0.4 |
| 2020 | 5 | 3.8 | −1.5 | R+0.4 |
| 2022 | 4 | 2.5 | +0.1 | D+0.5 |
| 2024 | 7 | 2.7 | −1.0 | D+1.9 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | Governor NM | Deb Haaland v. Gregg Hull | D+6 |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Senate NM | Ben Ray Luján v. Larry Marker | D+15 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2024 | 2024 Senate, NM | D+11 | D+10.1 | D+0.9 | R+1.9 |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 2024 President, NM | D+9 | D+6.0 | D+3.0 | R+0.5 |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 2024 House, NM-3 | D+17 | D+12.6 | D+4.4 | — |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 2024 House, NM-2 | D+4 | D+4.2 | R+0.2 | D+4.8 |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 2024 House, NM-1 | D+17 | D+12.7 | D+4.3 | — |
| Sep 13, 2024 | 2024 Senate, NM | D+12 | D+10.1 | D+1.9 | R+1.9 |
| Sep 13, 2024 | 2024 President, NM | D+10 | D+6.0 | D+4.0 | R+0.5 |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 2022 House, NM-3 | D+18 | D+16.3 | D+1.7 | D+1.8 |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 2022 House, NM-1 | D+6 | D+11.5 | R+5.5 | R+0.1 |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 2022 House, NM-2 | D+2 | D+0.7 | D+1.3 | R+4.5 |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 2022 Governor, NM | D+8 | D+6.4 | D+1.6 | R+0.1 |
| Oct 29, 2020 | 2020 House, NM-1 | D+21 | D+16.4 | D+4.6 | — |
| Oct 29, 2020 | 2020 Senate, NM | D+8 | D+6.1 | D+1.9 | D+2.4 |
| Oct 29, 2020 | 2020 President, NM | D+12 | D+10.8 | D+1.2 | R+0.2 |
| Oct 29, 2020 | 2020 House, NM-3 | D+23 | D+17.4 | D+5.6 | — |
| Oct 29, 2020 | 2020 House, NM-2 | R+2 | R+7.4 | D+5.4 | D+7.4 |
| Nov 1, 2018 | 2018 House, NM-2 | R+1 | D+1.9 | R+2.9 | R+3.0 |
| Nov 1, 2018 | 2018 Governor, NM | D+10 | D+14.4 | R+4.4 | R+7.0 |
| Nov 1, 2018 | 2018 House, NM-1 | D+12 | D+22.8 | R+10.8 | R+13.9 |
| Nov 1, 2018 | 2018 Senate, NM | D+20 | D+23.6 | R+3.6 | R+5.2 |
| Sep 13, 2018 | 2018 House, NM-1 | D+8 | D+22.8 | R+14.8 | R+13.9 |
| Sep 13, 2018 | 2018 House, NM-2 | R+7 | D+1.9 | R+8.9 | R+3.0 |
| Sep 13, 2018 | 2018 Governor, NM | D+7 | D+14.4 | R+7.4 | R+7.0 |
| Sep 13, 2018 | 2018 Senate, NM | D+21 | D+23.6 | R+2.6 | R+5.2 |
| Nov 2, 2016 | 2016 President, NM | D+5 | D+8.2 | R+3.2 | Even |
| Sep 28, 2016 | 2016 President, NM | D+4 | D+8.2 | R+4.2 | Even |
| Oct 22, 2014 | 2014 Senate, NM | D+7 | D+11.1 | R+4.1 | D+2.1 |
| Oct 22, 2014 | 2014 Governor, NM | R+15 | R+14.4 | R+0.6 | D+2.4 |
| Sep 10, 2014 | 2014 Senate, NM | D+13 | D+11.1 | D+1.9 | D+2.1 |
| Sep 10, 2014 | 2014 Governor, NM | R+18 | R+14.4 | R+3.6 | D+2.4 |
| Oct 24, 2012 | 2012 President, NM | D+9 | D+10.1 | R+1.1 | R+1.0 |
| Oct 24, 2012 | 2012 House, NM-2 | R+18 | R+18.2 | D+0.2 | — |
| Oct 24, 2012 | 2012 House, NM-1 | D+15 | D+18.3 | R+3.3 | R+7.2 |
| Oct 24, 2012 | 2012 House, NM-3 | D+18 | D+26.2 | R+8.2 | — |
| Oct 24, 2012 | 2012 Senate, NM | D+8 | D+5.7 | D+2.3 | D+3.1 |
| Oct 10, 2012 | 2012 House, NM-1 | D+14 | D+18.3 | R+4.3 | R+7.2 |
| Oct 10, 2012 | 2012 Senate, NM | D+9 | D+5.7 | D+3.3 | D+3.1 |
| Oct 10, 2012 | 2012 House, NM-2 | R+24 | R+18.2 | R+5.8 | — |
| Oct 10, 2012 | 2012 House, NM-3 | D+24 | D+26.2 | R+2.2 | — |
| Oct 10, 2012 | 2012 President, NM | D+10 | D+10.1 | R+0.1 | R+1.0 |
| Oct 27, 2010 | 2010 Governor, NM | R+10 | R+6.7 | R+3.3 | R+1.7 |
| Oct 27, 2010 | 2010 House, NM-1 | R+3 | D+3.6 | R+6.6 | R+3.1 |
| Oct 27, 2010 | 2010 House, NM-2 | R+3 | R+10.8 | D+7.8 | D+5.4 |
| Sep 29, 2010 | 2010 Governor, NM | R+7 | R+6.7 | R+0.3 | R+1.7 |
| Sep 29, 2010 | 2010 House, NM-1 | D+7 | D+3.6 | D+3.4 | R+3.1 |
| Sep 29, 2010 | 2010 House, NM-2 | R+1 | R+10.8 | D+9.8 | D+5.4 |
| Oct 29, 2008 | 2008 President, NM | D+8 | D+15.1 | R+7.1 | R+7.3 |
| Oct 29, 2008 | 2008 House, NM-1 | D+4 | D+11.3 | R+7.3 | R+9.2 |
| Oct 29, 2008 | 2008 House, NM-2 | D+4 | D+11.9 | R+7.9 | — |
| Oct 29, 2008 | 2008 House, NM-3 | D+28 | D+26.3 | D+1.7 | — |
| Oct 29, 2008 | 2008 Senate, NM | D+14 | D+22.7 | R+8.7 | R+6.0 |
| Oct 1, 2008 | 2008 President, NM | D+5 | D+15.1 | R+10.1 | R+7.3 |
| Oct 1, 2008 | 2008 Senate, NM | D+15 | D+22.7 | R+7.7 | R+6.0 |
| Oct 1, 2008 | 2008 House, NM-1 | D+2 | D+11.3 | R+9.3 | R+9.2 |
| Oct 1, 2008 | 2008 House, NM-3 | D+23 | D+26.3 | R+3.3 | — |
| Nov 1, 2006 | 2006 House, NM-1 | D+4 | R+0.4 | D+4.4 | D+6.3 |
| Nov 1, 2006 | 2006 House, NM-2 | R+26 | R+18.9 | R+7.1 | — |
| Nov 1, 2006 | 2006 Senate, NM | D+42 | D+41.3 | D+0.7 | R+16.8 |
| Nov 1, 2006 | 2006 House, NM-3 | D+51 | D+49.3 | D+1.7 | — |
| Oct 18, 2006 | 2006 House, NM-1 | D+3 | R+0.4 | D+3.4 | D+6.3 |