Pollster record · how records are scored
Pew Research Center
Method: probability panel · scored polls from 1998 to 2024
Versus the field
+0.15
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk +0.08; 13% own record)
Average miss
4.3
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.2
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
53
19 races · 11 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | 3 | 5.6 | +1.7 | D+0.8 |
| 2000 | 9 | 3.7 | +0.6 | D+1.3 |
| 2002 | 5 | 7.7 | +2.2 | D+2.5 |
| 2004 | 7 | 3.8 | +1.2 | R+2.8 |
| 2006 | 6 | 4.5 | −0.9 | D+1.3 |
| 2008 | 6 | 4.1 | +0.3 | D+3.5 |
| 2010 | 2 | 2.0 | −1.0 | R+3.3 |
| 2012 | 4 | 4.2 | +1.8 | R+0.5 |
| 2014 | 2 | 4.6 | −0.5 | D+0.5 |
| 2016 | 3 | 4.6 | +0.2 | D+1.0 |
| 2018 | 2 | 1.0 | −2.3 | D+2.0 |
| 2020 | 2 | 4.3 | −0.3 | D+0.2 |
| 2022 | 1 | 3.6 | +0.1 | D+0.7 |
| 2024 | 1 | 2.5 | −1.4 | R+1.3 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+8 | |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+6 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2024 | 2024 President | D+1 | R+1.5 | D+2.5 | D+3.7 |
| Oct 16, 2022 | 2022 Generic ballot | D+1 | R+2.6 | D+3.6 | D+2.9 |
| Oct 5, 2020 | 2020 President | D+10 | D+4.4 | D+5.6 | D+4.3 |
| Oct 5, 2020 | 2020 Generic ballot | D+6 | D+3.0 | D+3.0 | D+4.0 |
| Oct 7, 2018 | 2018 Generic ballot | D+9 | D+8.5 | D+0.5 | R+1.0 |
| Sep 24, 2018 | 2018 Generic ballot | D+10 | D+8.5 | D+1.5 | R+1.0 |
| Oct 22, 2016 | 2016 President | D+6 | D+2.2 | D+3.8 | D+3.1 |
| Oct 3, 2016 | 2016 President | D+7 | D+2.2 | D+4.8 | D+3.1 |
| Oct 3, 2016 | 2016 House | D+4 | R+1.0 | D+5.0 | D+4.5 |
| Oct 17, 2014 | 2014 House | D+1 | R+5.6 | D+6.6 | D+4.1 |
| Sep 6, 2014 | 2014 House | R+3 | R+5.6 | D+2.6 | D+4.1 |
| Nov 2, 2012 | 2012 President | D+3 | D+3.9 | R+0.9 | R+1.7 |
| Oct 26, 2012 | 2012 President | Even | D+3.9 | R+3.9 | R+1.7 |
| Oct 6, 2012 | 2012 President | R+4 | D+3.9 | R+7.9 | R+1.7 |
| Sep 14, 2012 | 2012 President | D+8 | D+3.9 | D+4.1 | R+1.7 |
| Oct 29, 2010 | 2010 House | R+6 | R+6.5 | D+0.5 | D+1.8 |
| Oct 15, 2010 | 2010 House | R+10 | R+6.5 | R+3.5 | D+1.8 |
| Oct 31, 2008 | 2008 President | D+6 | D+7.4 | R+1.4 | R+2.9 |
| Oct 25, 2008 | 2008 President | D+15 | D+7.4 | D+7.6 | R+2.9 |
| Oct 18, 2008 | 2008 President | D+14 | D+7.4 | D+6.6 | R+2.9 |
| Oct 11, 2008 | 2008 President | D+7 | D+7.4 | R+0.4 | R+2.9 |
| Sep 28, 2008 | 2008 President | D+6 | D+7.4 | R+1.4 | R+2.9 |
| Sep 11, 2008 | 2008 President | Even | D+7.4 | R+7.4 | R+2.9 |
| Nov 3, 2006 | 2006 House | D+4 | D+7.9 | R+3.9 | D+4.3 |
| Oct 19, 2006 | 2006 House | D+11 | D+7.9 | D+3.1 | D+4.3 |
| Sep 27, 2006 | 2006 House | D+13 | D+7.9 | D+5.1 | D+4.3 |
| Sep 15, 2006 | 2006 Senate, PA | D+21 | D+17.4 | D+3.6 | R+5.9 |
| Sep 15, 2006 | 2006 Governor, PA | D+29 | D+20.7 | D+8.3 | R+0.1 |
| Sep 8, 2006 | 2006 House | D+11 | D+7.9 | D+3.1 | D+4.3 |
| Oct 29, 2004 | 2004 President | R+3 | R+2.4 | R+0.6 | D+0.1 |
| Oct 17, 2004 | 2004 President | Even | R+2.4 | D+2.4 | D+0.1 |
| Oct 2, 2004 | 2004 President | R+5 | R+2.4 | R+2.6 | D+0.1 |
| Sep 24, 2004 | 2004 President | R+8 | R+2.4 | R+5.6 | D+0.1 |
| Sep 19, 2004 | 2004 President | R+3 | R+2.4 | R+0.6 | D+0.1 |
| Sep 13, 2004 | 2004 President | R+1 | R+2.4 | D+1.4 | D+0.1 |
| Sep 9, 2004 | 2004 President | R+16 | R+2.4 | R+13.6 | D+0.1 |
| Nov 1, 2002 | 2002 House | D+2 | R+4.7 | D+6.7 | D+5.3 |
| Nov 1, 2002 | 2002 House | D+4 | R+4.7 | D+8.7 | D+5.3 |
| Oct 19, 2002 | 2002 House | D+5 | R+4.7 | D+9.7 | D+5.3 |
| Oct 4, 2002 | 2002 House | D+2 | R+4.7 | D+6.7 | D+5.3 |
| Sep 7, 2002 | 2002 House | D+2 | R+4.7 | D+6.7 | D+5.3 |
| Nov 4, 2000 | 2000 House | D+6 | R+0.3 | D+6.3 | D+1.8 |
| Nov 4, 2000 | 2000 President | R+2 | D+0.5 | R+2.5 | R+1.5 |
| Nov 3, 2000 | 2000 President | R+3 | D+0.5 | R+3.5 | R+1.5 |
| Nov 3, 2000 | 2000 House | D+4 | R+0.3 | D+4.3 | D+1.8 |
| Oct 27, 2000 | 2000 President | R+4 | D+0.5 | R+4.5 | R+1.5 |
| Oct 20, 2000 | 2000 President | Even | D+0.5 | R+0.5 | R+1.5 |
| Oct 6, 2000 | 2000 House | D+4 | R+0.3 | D+4.3 | D+1.8 |
| Oct 6, 2000 | 2000 President | R+1 | D+0.5 | R+1.5 | R+1.5 |
| Sep 15, 2000 | 2000 President | D+6 | D+0.5 | D+5.5 | R+1.5 |
| Oct 30, 1998 | 1998 House | D+2 | R+0.9 | D+2.9 | D+2.0 |
| Oct 30, 1998 | 1998 House | D+9 | R+0.9 | D+9.9 | D+2.0 |
| Oct 16, 1998 | 1998 House | R+5 | R+0.9 | R+4.1 | D+2.0 |