Pollster record · how records are scored
Neighborhood Research and Media
Method: live phone · scored polls from 2009 to 2025
Versus the field
+0.04
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk +0.99; 3% own record). A thin record: too few scored polls to say much.
Average miss
9.3
points on the margin, as published
House effect
R+0.1
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
6
4 races · 1 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 4 | 7.6 | −4.1 | D+0.2 |
| 2012 | 1 | 10.7 | +6.5 | R+6.4 |
| 2025 | 1 | 14.4 | +5.1 | R+5.1 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | NC-1 | Don Davis v. Laurie Buckhout | D+10 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2025-GOV-NJ | Even | D+14.4 | R+14.4 | R+9.2 |
| Oct 12, 2012 | 2012 President, NJ | D+7 | D+17.7 | R+10.7 | R+4.3 |
| Oct 28, 2009 | 2009 Governor, NJR-ALIGNED | R+7 | R+3.6 | R+3.4 | D+3.4 |
| Oct 25, 2009 | 2009 House, NY-23 | D+15 | D+39.2 | R+24.2 | R+32.3 |
| Oct 7, 2009 | 2009 Governor, NJ | R+1 | R+3.6 | D+2.6 | D+3.4 |
| Sep 16, 2009 | 2009 Governor, NJ | R+4 | R+3.6 | R+0.4 | D+3.4 |