Pollster record · how records are scored
National Research
Method: live phone mix · scored polls from 2008 to 2025 · 68% of scored polls were for a party or campaign
Versus the field
−0.04
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk +0.03; 19% own record)
Average miss
5.6
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.3
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
44
35 races · 1 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 2 | 6.7 | −1.4 | R+7.9 |
| 2010 | 8 | 6.9 | +1.5 | D+0.1 |
| 2012 | 5 | 6.4 | +1.5 | D+0.5 |
| 2014 | 5 | 3.7 | −0.1 | D+0.2 |
| 2016 | 6 | 3.0 | −2.1 | R+3.3 |
| 2018 | 4 | 8.8 | +4.1 | R+1.8 |
| 2020 | 9 | 4.0 | −1.0 | D+4.3 |
| 2021 | 1 | 0.2 | −5.2 | R+1.3 |
| 2024 | 2 | 5.1 | −0.1 | D+4.3 |
| 2025 | 2 | 13.4 | +3.5 | Even |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | FL-25 | Jared Moskowitz v. Scott Singer | R+7 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2025 | 2025-GOV-NJ R-ALIGNED | R+1 | D+14.4 | R+15.4 | R+9.4 |
| Sep 10, 2025 | 2025-GOV-NJ R-ALIGNED | D+3 | D+14.4 | R+11.4 | R+9.4 |
| Sep 29, 2024 | 2024 Senate, AZR-ALIGNED | D+6 | D+2.4 | D+3.6 | D+4.8 |
| Sep 29, 2024 | 2024 President, AZR-ALIGNED | D+1 | R+5.5 | D+6.5 | D+4.5 |
| Sep 16, 2021 | 2021 Governor, NJR-ALIGNED | D+3 | D+3.2 | R+0.2 | D+5.0 |
| Jan 3, 2021 | 2020 Senate, GAR-ALIGNED | D+1 | D+2.1 | R+1.1 | R+1.2 |
| Jan 3, 2021 | 2020 Senate, GAR-ALIGNED | D+1 | D+1.2 | R+0.2 | R+1.1 |
| Oct 15, 2020 | 2020 President, GAR-ALIGNED | D+4 | D+0.2 | D+3.8 | D+0.3 |
| Oct 15, 2020 | 2020 Senate, GAR-ALIGNED | Even | R+1.8 | D+1.8 | D+1.3 |
| Oct 8, 2020 | 2020 President, IAR-ALIGNED | D+2 | R+8.2 | D+10.2 | D+6.9 |
| Oct 8, 2020 | 2020 Senate, IAR-ALIGNED | R+1 | R+6.6 | D+5.6 | D+7.4 |
| Oct 7, 2020 | 2020 House, MI-3R-ALIGNED | R+7 | R+5.9 | R+1.1 | D+4.4 |
| Oct 6, 2020 | 2020 President, MIR-ALIGNED | D+9 | D+2.8 | D+6.2 | D+4.3 |
| Oct 6, 2020 | 2020 Senate, MIR-ALIGNED | D+8 | D+1.7 | D+6.3 | D+5.3 |
| Oct 17, 2018 | 2018 Senate, NJR-ALIGNED | D+2 | D+11.2 | R+9.2 | R+3.3 |
| Oct 9, 2018 | 2018 Senate, NJR-ALIGNED | D+2 | D+11.2 | R+9.2 | R+3.3 |
| Oct 4, 2018 | 2018 House, NJ-3R-ALIGNED | R+4 | D+1.3 | R+5.3 | D+1.1 |
| Sep 27, 2018 | 2018 House, NJ-11R-ALIGNED | D+3 | D+14.6 | R+11.6 | R+7.1 |
| Oct 16, 2016 | 2016 President, NC | D+2 | R+3.7 | D+5.7 | D+4.9 |
| Oct 16, 2016 | 2016 Governor, NC | R+4 | D+0.2 | R+4.2 | D+2.5 |
| Oct 16, 2016 | 2016 Senate, NC | R+7 | R+5.7 | R+1.3 | D+3.7 |
| Sep 11, 2016 | 2016 President, NC | Even | R+3.7 | D+3.7 | D+4.9 |
| Sep 11, 2016 | 2016 Senate, NC | R+5 | R+5.7 | D+0.7 | D+3.7 |
| Sep 11, 2016 | 2016 Governor, NC | R+2 | D+0.2 | R+2.2 | D+2.5 |
| Oct 29, 2014 | 2014 Senate, NC | Even | R+1.6 | D+1.6 | D+3.0 |
| Oct 17, 2014 | 2014 Senate, NC | R+1 | R+1.6 | D+0.6 | D+3.0 |
| Oct 1, 2014 | 2014 House, FL-2R-ALIGNED | R+6 | D+1.1 | R+7.1 | R+2.0 |
| Oct 1, 2014 | 2014 House, NJ-3R-ALIGNED | R+7 | R+9.6 | D+2.6 | D+4.1 |
| Sep 26, 2014 | 2014 Senate, NC | D+5 | R+1.6 | D+6.6 | D+3.0 |
| Oct 22, 2012 | 2012 House, CT-5R-ALIGNED | R+6 | D+3.1 | R+9.1 | R+4.6 |
| Oct 20, 2012 | 2012 President, NC | R+1 | R+2.0 | D+1.0 | D+0.6 |
| Oct 1, 2012 | 2012 Senate, CT | R+3 | D+12.5 | R+15.5 | R+9.8 |
| Sep 18, 2012 | 2012 Governor, NC | R+11 | R+11.4 | D+0.4 | R+2.7 |
| Sep 18, 2012 | 2012 President, NC | D+4 | R+2.0 | D+6.0 | D+0.6 |
| Oct 20, 2010 | 2010 House, MI-7R-ALIGNED | R+13 | R+4.8 | R+8.2 | D+7.0 |
| Oct 17, 2010 | 2010 House, CT-4R-ALIGNED | R+4 | D+4.0 | R+8.0 | R+4.0 |
| Oct 8, 2010 | 2010 Senate, AKR-ALIGNED | R+6 | R+12.1 | D+6.1 | D+1.9 |
| Oct 5, 2010 | 2010 House, AZ-5R-ALIGNED | R+2 | R+8.8 | D+6.8 | D+4.8 |
| Oct 5, 2010 | 2010 House, NJ-6R-ALIGNED | D+1 | D+11.0 | R+10.0 | R+1.5 |
| Sep 29, 2010 | 2010 House, FL-2R-ALIGNED | R+16 | R+12.2 | R+3.8 | R+4.8 |
| Sep 27, 2010 | 2010 House, CT-4R-ALIGNED | Even | D+4.0 | R+4.0 | R+4.0 |
| Sep 16, 2010 | 2010 Senate, NC | R+20 | R+11.8 | R+8.2 | R+2.1 |
| Oct 21, 2008 | 2008 House, NJ-7R-ALIGNED | R+9 | R+8.0 | R+1.0 | D+8.5 |
| Sep 15, 2008 | 2008 House, MI-7R-ALIGNED | R+10 | D+2.3 | R+12.3 | D+1.8 |