Pollster record · how records are scored
Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies
Method: live phone · scored polls from 1998 to 2024
Versus the field
−0.05
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −0.33; 19% own record)
Average miss
3.7
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.1
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
80
21 races · 24 polls this cycle
By cycle
Record over time
Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. miss | Versus the field | Lean vs. field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | 2 | 3.4 | −1.3 | D+1.4 |
| 2000 | 8 | 3.5 | +0.2 | R+1.1 |
| 2002 | 1 | 4.7 | −0.9 | R+0.7 |
| 2003 | 1 | 4.1 | −6.8 | R+4.7 |
| 2004 | 6 | 2.9 | −0.7 | D+0.3 |
| 2006 | 4 | 4.1 | −1.3 | R+0.1 |
| 2008 | 10 | 3.0 | −0.9 | D+1.8 |
| 2010 | 1 | 1.5 | −1.2 | R+0.2 |
| 2012 | 6 | 1.8 | −0.5 | D+0.7 |
| 2014 | 8 | 7.0 | +2.3 | D+1.6 |
| 2016 | 9 | 5.1 | +0.9 | D+1.4 |
| 2018 | 4 | 1.3 | −1.7 | R+0.1 |
| 2020 | 8 | 5.4 | +1.0 | D+1.2 |
| 2022 | 4 | 2.1 | −1.4 | R+0.8 |
| 2024 | 8 | 2.7 | −0.8 | R+1.3 |
This cycle
2026 polls in the database
| Ended | Race | Matchup | As published |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+5 | |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+4 | |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+5 | |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+4 | |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Generic ballot | D+6 | |
| Dec 8, 2025 | Generic ballot | D+4 | |
| Oct 28, 2025 | Generic ballot | D+8 | |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Generic ballot | D+1 | |
| Aug 3, 2025 | Generic ballot | D+5 | |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Generic ballot | D+4 | |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Generic ballot | D+2 | |
| Mar 11, 2025 | Generic ballot | D+1 |
The receipts
Most recent scored polls
Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.
| Poll date | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Others' miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2024 President | R+1 | R+1.5 | D+1.0 | D+3.7 |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2024 Generic ballot | D+1 | R+2.7 | D+3.7 | D+3.5 |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2024 President | R+2 | R+1.5 | R+0.5 | D+3.7 |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2024 Generic ballot | R+4 | R+2.7 | R+1.3 | D+3.5 |
| Oct 8, 2024 | 2024 President | R+1 | R+1.5 | D+1.0 | D+3.7 |
| Oct 8, 2024 | 2024 Generic ballot | Even | R+2.7 | D+2.7 | D+3.5 |
| Sep 17, 2024 | 2024 President | D+6 | R+1.5 | D+7.0 | D+3.7 |
| Sep 17, 2024 | 2024 Generic ballot | D+2 | R+2.7 | D+4.7 | D+3.5 |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 2022 Generic ballot | D+1 | R+2.6 | D+3.6 | D+2.9 |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2022 Generic ballot | R+1 | R+2.6 | D+1.6 | D+2.9 |
| Oct 16, 2022 | 2022 Generic ballot | R+2 | R+2.6 | D+0.6 | D+2.9 |
| Sep 13, 2022 | 2022 Generic ballot | Even | R+2.6 | D+2.6 | D+2.9 |
| Oct 31, 2020 | 2020 President | D+10 | D+4.4 | D+5.6 | D+4.3 |
| Oct 31, 2020 | 2020 Generic ballot | D+5 | D+3.0 | D+2.0 | D+3.9 |
| Oct 24, 2020 | 2020 President | D+11 | D+4.4 | D+6.6 | D+4.3 |
| Oct 12, 2020 | 2020 President | D+11 | D+4.4 | D+6.6 | D+4.3 |
| Oct 12, 2020 | 2020 Generic ballot | D+8 | D+3.0 | D+5.0 | D+3.9 |
| Oct 1, 2020 | 2020 President | D+14 | D+4.4 | D+9.6 | D+4.3 |
| Sep 16, 2020 | 2020 President | D+8 | D+4.4 | D+3.6 | D+4.3 |
| Sep 16, 2020 | 2020 Generic ballot | D+7 | D+3.0 | D+4.0 | D+3.9 |
| Nov 3, 2018 | 2018 Generic ballot | D+7 | D+8.5 | R+1.5 | R+0.9 |
| Oct 17, 2018 | 2018 Generic ballot | D+9 | D+8.5 | D+0.5 | R+0.9 |
| Oct 7, 2018 | 2018 Generic ballot | D+6 | D+8.5 | R+2.5 | R+0.9 |
| Sep 19, 2018 | 2018 Generic ballot | D+8 | D+8.5 | R+0.5 | R+0.9 |
| Nov 4, 2016 | 2016 President | D+4 | D+2.2 | D+1.8 | D+3.1 |
| Nov 4, 2016 | 2016 House | D+3 | R+1.0 | D+4.0 | D+4.5 |
| Oct 23, 2016 | 2016 President | D+9 | D+2.2 | D+6.8 | D+3.1 |
| Oct 12, 2016 | 2016 President | D+11 | D+2.2 | D+8.8 | D+3.1 |
| Oct 12, 2016 | 2016 House | D+2 | R+1.0 | D+3.0 | D+4.5 |
| Oct 9, 2016 | 2016 President | D+9 | D+2.2 | D+6.8 | D+3.1 |
| Oct 9, 2016 | 2016 House | D+6 | R+1.0 | D+7.0 | D+4.5 |
| Sep 18, 2016 | 2016 House | D+3 | R+1.0 | D+4.0 | D+4.5 |
| Sep 18, 2016 | 2016 President | D+6 | D+2.2 | D+3.8 | D+3.1 |
| Oct 31, 2014 | 2014 House | Even | R+5.6 | D+5.6 | D+4.0 |
| Oct 20, 2014 | 2014 House | R+11 | R+5.6 | R+5.4 | D+4.0 |
| Oct 13, 2014 | 2014 House | R+5 | R+5.6 | D+0.6 | D+4.0 |
| Oct 10, 2014 | 2014 House | R+1 | R+5.6 | D+4.6 | D+4.0 |
| Oct 6, 2014 | 2014 House | D+5 | R+5.6 | D+10.6 | D+4.0 |
| Sep 29, 2014 | 2014 House | D+3 | R+5.6 | D+8.6 | D+4.0 |
| Sep 22, 2014 | 2014 House | D+5 | R+5.6 | D+10.6 | D+4.0 |
| Sep 16, 2014 | 2014 House | D+4 | R+5.6 | D+9.6 | D+4.0 |
| Nov 2, 2012 | 2012 President | D+1 | D+3.9 | R+2.9 | R+1.7 |
| Nov 2, 2012 | 2012 House | D+2 | D+1.1 | D+0.9 | R+0.1 |
| Oct 19, 2012 | 2012 House | D+2 | D+1.1 | D+0.9 | R+0.1 |
| Oct 19, 2012 | 2012 President | Even | D+3.9 | R+3.9 | R+1.7 |
| Sep 28, 2012 | 2012 President | D+5 | D+3.9 | D+1.1 | R+1.7 |
| Sep 14, 2012 | 2012 President | D+5 | D+3.9 | D+1.1 | R+1.7 |
| Oct 29, 2010 | 2010 House | R+5 | R+6.5 | D+1.5 | D+1.7 |
| Nov 1, 2008 | 2008 House | D+12 | D+10.6 | D+1.4 | R+2.1 |
| Nov 1, 2008 | 2008 President | D+8 | D+7.4 | D+0.6 | R+2.8 |
| Oct 19, 2008 | 2008 House | D+11 | D+10.6 | D+0.5 | R+2.1 |
| Oct 19, 2008 | 2008 President | D+11 | D+7.4 | D+3.6 | R+2.8 |
| Oct 4, 2008 | 2008 President | D+6 | D+7.4 | R+1.4 | R+2.8 |
| Oct 4, 2008 | 2008 House | D+13 | D+10.6 | D+2.5 | R+2.1 |
| Sep 21, 2008 | 2008 House | D+13 | D+10.6 | D+2.5 | R+2.1 |
| Sep 21, 2008 | 2008 President | D+2 | D+7.4 | R+5.4 | R+2.8 |
| Sep 17, 2008 | 2008 President | D+2 | D+7.4 | R+5.4 | R+2.8 |
| Sep 7, 2008 | 2008 President | D+1 | D+7.4 | R+6.4 | R+2.8 |
| Oct 29, 2006 | 2006 House | D+15 | D+7.9 | D+7.1 | D+4.2 |
| Oct 15, 2006 | 2006 House | D+15 | D+7.9 | D+7.1 | D+4.2 |