House Effects
Monday, September 21, 202643 days until Election Day, November 3, 2026
Pollster record · how records are scored

Ipsos

Method: probability panel · scored polls from 2002 to 2024

Versus the field
+0.02
points of error vs. other pollsters in the same races, after shrinkage (unshrunk −0.08; 59% own record)
Average miss
4.9
points on the margin, as published
House effect
D+0.2
lean relative to other polls of the same races
Scored polls
521
131 races · 97 polls this cycle
By cycle

Record over time

Error relative to other pollsters in the same races (negative is better), and lean relative to them. Cycles with fewer than 10 scored polls are grayed: a handful of polls says little.

CyclePollsAvg. missVersus the fieldLean vs. field
200295.3−0.3R+0.1
200321.4−3.7R+3.7
2004124.3−0.1D+1.9
200658.5+3.4D+4.6
200893.3−0.7Even
2010266.0+1.0D+0.3
2012362.5−0.4D+1.8
2014106.4+0.1D+0.8
20162236.0−0.2R+0.3
2018963.3−0.3D+0.9
2020724.7−0.3D+0.2
2022143.9+0.3D+1.0
202474.5+1.0D+0.8
This cycle

2026 polls in the database

EndedRaceMatchupAs published
Sep 20, 2026Generic ballotD+8
Sep 14, 2026Generic ballotD+7
Aug 31, 2026Generic ballotD+5
Aug 24, 2026Generic ballotD+6
Aug 17, 2026Generic ballotD+5
Aug 3, 2026Generic ballotD+5
Jul 26, 2026Generic ballotD+2
Jul 13, 2026Generic ballotD+3
Jun 22, 2026Generic ballotD+5
Jun 15, 2026Generic ballotD+3
Jun 8, 2026Generic ballotD+4
May 18, 2026Generic ballotD+4
May 11, 2026Generic ballotD+6
Apr 28, 2026Generic ballotD+5
Apr 27, 2026Generic ballotD+4
Apr 20, 2026Generic ballotD+3
Mar 23, 2026Generic ballotD+2
Mar 19, 2026Generic ballotD+3
Feb 23, 2026Generic ballotD+2
Feb 17, 2026Generic ballotD+2
Feb 16, 2026Generic ballotD+4
Jan 25, 2026Generic ballotD+4
Jan 13, 2026Generic ballotD+2
Dec 15, 2025Generic ballotD+4
Dec 8, 2025Generic ballotD+1
Nov 17, 2025Generic ballotD+2
Nov 12, 2025Generic ballotD+1
Oct 28, 2025Generic ballotD+2
Oct 26, 2025Generic ballotEven
Oct 20, 2025Generic ballotD+3
Oct 7, 2025Generic ballotD+2
Sep 21, 2025Generic ballotR+3
Aug 24, 2025Generic ballotD+5
Aug 18, 2025Generic ballotD+1
Jul 27, 2025Generic ballotD+4
Jun 23, 2025Generic ballotD+2
Jun 16, 2025Generic ballotD+1
May 18, 2025Generic ballotD+1
Apr 27, 2025Generic ballotEven
Mar 23, 2025Generic ballotR+2
The receipts

Most recent scored polls

Polls in the final two months of a race with a certified result. “Others” is the average miss of other pollsters in the same race.

Poll dateRacePollResultMissOthers' miss
Nov 3, 20242024 PresidentD+2R+1.5D+3.5D+3.7
Oct 27, 20242024 PresidentD+1R+1.5D+2.5D+3.7
Oct 21, 20242024 PresidentD+3R+1.5D+4.0D+3.7
Oct 13, 20242024 PresidentD+3R+1.5D+4.5D+3.7
Oct 7, 20242024 PresidentD+2R+1.5D+3.5D+3.7
Sep 22, 20242024 PresidentD+6R+1.5D+7.5D+3.7
Sep 12, 20242024 PresidentD+5R+1.5D+6.5D+3.7
Nov 7, 20222022 Generic ballotD+1R+2.6D+3.8D+2.9
Nov 1, 20222022 Generic ballotD+3R+2.6D+5.2D+2.9
Oct 25, 20222022 Generic ballotD+1R+2.6D+3.9D+2.9
Oct 24, 20222022 Generic ballotD+3R+2.6D+5.6D+2.9
Oct 23, 20222022 Generic ballotD+1R+2.6D+3.6D+2.9
Oct 18, 20222022 Generic ballotR+3R+2.6R+0.2D+2.9
Oct 11, 20222022 Generic ballotEvenR+2.6D+2.4D+2.9
Oct 4, 20222022 Generic ballotD+7R+2.6D+9.3D+2.9
Oct 3, 20222022 Generic ballotD+3R+2.6D+5.6D+2.9
Sep 27, 20222022 Generic ballotD+1R+2.6D+3.6D+2.9
Sep 20, 20222022 Generic ballotEvenR+2.6D+2.2D+2.9
Sep 19, 20222022 Generic ballotEvenR+2.6D+2.6D+2.9
Sep 13, 20222022 Generic ballotR+1R+2.6D+1.4D+2.9
Sep 12, 20222022 Generic ballotD+3R+2.6D+5.6D+2.9
Nov 2, 20202020 Senate, AZD+9D+2.3D+6.7D+4.0
Nov 2, 20202020 President, AZD+3D+0.3D+2.2D+2.4
Nov 2, 20202020 PresidentD+7D+4.4D+2.6D+4.3
Nov 1, 20202020 Senate, MID+7D+1.7D+5.3D+5.5
Nov 1, 20202020 President, FLD+4R+3.4D+7.4D+5.4
Nov 1, 20202020 President, NCD+2R+1.3D+2.8D+2.8
Nov 1, 20202020 President, PAD+6D+1.2D+4.8D+4.1
Nov 1, 20202020 President, WID+9D+0.6D+8.4D+6.2
Nov 1, 20202020 President, MID+9D+2.8D+6.2D+4.4
Nov 1, 20202020 Senate, NCD+2R+1.7D+3.7D+6.1
Oct 27, 20202020 President, AZD+1D+0.3D+0.7D+2.4
Oct 27, 20202020 Senate, AZD+7D+2.3D+4.7D+4.0
Oct 27, 20202020 Senate, NCD+1R+1.7D+2.7D+6.1
Oct 27, 20202020 President, FLD+2R+3.4D+4.9D+5.4
Oct 27, 20202020 PresidentD+10D+4.4D+5.6D+4.3
Oct 27, 20202020 President, NCD+1R+1.3D+2.3D+2.8
Oct 26, 20202020 President, PAD+6D+1.2D+4.8D+4.1
Oct 26, 20202020 Senate, MID+6D+1.7D+4.3D+5.5
Oct 26, 20202020 President, WID+9D+0.6D+8.4D+6.2
Oct 26, 20202020 President, MID+10D+2.8D+6.7D+4.4
Oct 22, 20202020 PresidentD+8D+4.4D+3.6D+4.3
Oct 21, 20202020 President, AZD+4D+0.3D+3.2D+2.4
Oct 21, 20202020 Senate, AZD+8D+2.3D+5.7D+4.0
Oct 20, 20202020 President, NCD+3R+1.3D+3.8D+2.8
Oct 20, 20202020 PresidentD+9D+4.4D+4.6D+4.3
Oct 20, 20202020 President, FLD+5R+3.4D+7.9D+5.4
Oct 20, 20202020 President, MID+8D+2.8D+4.7D+4.4
Oct 20, 20202020 Senate, NCEvenR+1.7D+1.7D+6.1
Oct 20, 20202020 Senate, MID+5D+1.7D+3.3D+5.5
Oct 19, 20202020 President, PAD+4D+1.2D+2.8D+4.1
Oct 19, 20202020 President, WID+7D+0.6D+6.4D+6.2
Oct 15, 20202020 PresidentD+10D+4.4D+5.6D+4.3
Oct 14, 20202020 President, AZD+3D+0.3D+2.7D+2.4
Oct 14, 20202020 President, FLD+3R+3.4D+5.9D+5.4
Oct 14, 20202020 Senate, AZD+11D+2.3D+8.7D+4.0
Oct 13, 20202020 Senate, NCD+4R+1.7D+5.7D+6.1
Oct 13, 20202020 Senate, MID+8D+1.7D+6.3D+5.5
Oct 13, 20202020 PresidentD+10D+4.4D+5.6D+4.3
Oct 13, 20202020 President, MID+8D+2.8D+4.7D+4.4