The 4-year graduation rate is no longer a meaningful comparison

Only 10% of NYC high schools graduate fewer than 54% of their students; only 10% graduate above 99%. The middle 80% lives between 54% and 99% — a 45-point range, but the right tail is heavily compressed near the ceiling.

When three-quarters of schools graduate 79% or more of their students, the rate stops distinguishing schools above the median. Two high schools at 88% and 92% are statistically indistinguishable on this measure. A reader trying to tell schools above 85% apart from each other needs to look at other outcomes.

Three forces appear to drive it. First, credit recovery — online makeup courses that allow students to complete graduation requirements outside traditional course sequences. Second, consolidation of diploma pathways — fewer below-Regents options. Third, New York City's policy emphasis on raising graduation rates since 2014. Whether the compression signals improvement, less-rigorous standards, or both depends on what a reader expects a diploma to certify.

1. College enrollment rate (CUNY and SUNY publish this; New York City high-school-level data exists). 2. College persistence — share of students returning for a second year. 3. College graduation rate, six years out. 4. Share of students earning a Regents diploma versus a Local diploma. 5. College and Career Readiness, a measure defined by New York State and available in the city's School Quality Reports (not yet in our database).