The 4-year graduation rate is no longer a meaningful comparison
A reproducibility log: the data this analysis touched, the queries it ran, the outside sources it leaned on, and the steps a third party would follow to re-run it.
Summary
Computed the citywide graduation-rate trajectory 2014-15 → 2023-24 alongside changes in graduation requirements (e.g., Regents exemptions, COVID waivers). Identified the windows where requirement changes plausibly inflate the rate.
Data sources
- Database tableschool_year_metrics
Long-format per-school per-year metric facts (school_dbn, year, metric_key, subgroup, value, suppressed). Loaded from DOE/NYSED public files via scripts/loaders/*.
- External datasetNYSED — graduation-requirement history and waiver documentation
Steps
Pull citywide grad-rate by year; overlay regulatory-change dates.
Caveats
Cohort definitions and accommodations shift; year-over-year comparisons within a stable regime are clean but cross-regime comparisons (especially 2020-21 onwards) need explicit context.
Reproduce
Clone the repo, set DATABASE_URL to a Postgres with the project schema loaded, run `npx tsx scripts/loaders/<source>.ts` for any not-yet-loaded data, then issue the queries in the Steps section. The story page also lists the exact `metric_key`/`subgroup`/`year` filters used. Searchable by the answer's headline number — every figure is recomputable from the queries shown.
The recipe lives at data/stories/recipes.ts in the repo. Corrections welcome.