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Specific schoolsFull briefing

The 4-year graduation rate is no longer a meaningful comparison

The longer form of the briefing for this story: the original thesis, the supporting findings the data team flagged, and the reporting directions a journalist could follow. For the short version and the data analysis, see the main story page.

Thesis

Citywide 4-year graduation rate is now ~84% in NYC — clustered between 70% and 95% for most schools. The metric has compressed: only ~10% of schools differentiate at the bottom (where it matters) and ceiling effects dominate the top. We need a better post-secondary outcome.

Supporting findings

  • Distribution of NYC HS 4-year graduation rate (2020-21 → 2024-25): median ~85%, IQR roughly 79%-91%.
  • Compare with 2005-2015: distribution was much wider (40% to 95%).
  • Why compressed? NYC reduced HS dropout rate dramatically through credit-recovery + alternative paths.
  • Credit recovery (online makeup courses) inflates the metric — kids 'graduate' without comparable rigor.
  • Better measures: college enrollment (CUNY tracks NYC HS grads), college persistence (1st-to-2nd year), college graduation.
  • Compare 4-year grad rate vs college-and-career-readiness rate (CCR — we have it via metric_def but not yet loaded).
  • Look at the high-grad-rate / low-CCR schools — they're 'graduating' but not preparing.
  • Pull SUNY/CUNY data on NYC HS grads' college persistence — separate dataset.
  • Interview Aaron Pallas + David Bloomfield (Brooklyn College) on credit recovery critique.
  • Frame: 'NYC fixed graduation. Now we need to fix what graduation means.'

Reporting directions

  • Ingest the College & Career Readiness metric from NYC School Quality Reports.
  • Cross-reference NYC HS DBNs with CUNY's freshman cohort retention data.
  • Profile 2-3 'high grad / low CCR' schools.
  • Compare with NYS Regents diploma vs Local diploma split.

See the data analysis →