Bronx Aerospace High School cut chronic absenteeism by 34 points. How?
The question
How did Bronx Aerospace High School cut chronic absenteeism by 34 percentage points — and is the turnaround real?
Bronx Aerospace High School cut its chronic-absenteeism rate from 67% in 2018-19 to 33% in 2024-25 — a 34-percentage-point drop, larger than any other New York City high school. Most of the cut happened between 2018-19 and 2020-21, when chronic absenteeism was being measured during the shift to remote learning. The school's graduation rate also rose (66% to 87%) and its enrollment dropped 50% before doubling in 2024-25. The improvement is real, but several things overlap — a change in how attendance was measured, selection effects from the enrollment shrinkage, and genuine instructional improvement — so it's not a clean turnaround story.
Data analysis
Investigation run 2026-05-31.
TL;DR
Bronx Aerospace cut chronic absenteeism by 34 percentage points between 2018-19 and 2024-25 — the largest cut at any New York City high school. The change is front-loaded: most of it happened between 2018-19 (67%) and 2020-21 (29%), during the shift to remote learning, when chronic absenteeism was being measured in a different participation regime. The improvement has held since, but the school's enrollment also dropped from 336 students to around 170 before doubling to 370 in 2024-25.
Year-by-year trajectory
Two things stand out. First, the big drop is between 2018-19 and 2020-21 — the COVID transition. Many schools saw their measured absenteeism fall during remote learning because the underlying definition shifted. Second, enrollment shrank by half between 2018 and 2022 (336 students to 169), then doubled to 401 in 2024-25 — a new wave of students just arrived. Whether the recent uptick to 33% absenteeism is a sign of regression or just new-student adjustment is too early to call.
| Year | Chronic absenteeism % | Enrollment (approx.) |
|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | 67.3 | 336 |
| 2019-20 | 58.2 | 285 |
| 2020-21 | 28.6 | 217 |
| 2021-22 | 28.5 | 200 |
| 2022-23 | 28.4 | 169 |
| 2023-24 | 28.2 | 206 |
| 2024-25 | 32.7 | 401 |
Academic outcomes back up the story
The four-year graduation rate climbed from 66% in 2018-19 to 87% in 2022-23. The school is doing better academically, not just on the attendance measure. Teacher 'would recommend' rates climbed from 70% in 2021-22 to 73.5% in 2023-24 — modest but stable. Parent satisfaction has held at 96-97% throughout.
Demographics over the same period
Bronx Aerospace serves a student body that has stayed steady: 85-88% economically disadvantaged, 14-18% English Language Learners, 22-28% students with disabilities. It has been in challenge group 8 throughout. The student population isn't shifting in a way that would explain the change. A school in the same neighborhood is doing materially better than it used to.
What probably explains the improvement
Three plausible contributors, in rough order of likely importance. First, the definitional shift in chronic absenteeism during and after COVID — the school's pre-pandemic 67% rate likely reflected administrative practices that have since changed. Second, real instructional improvement after 2020, supported by the graduation-rate climb. Third, enrollment selection — the 50% enrollment drop between 2018 and 2022 likely meant the most-disengaged students transferred out, leaving a higher-attending core.
Caveats
We don't have student-level transfer data, so we can't directly confirm the selection-effect hypothesis. The 2024-25 enrollment doubling (with a small absenteeism uptick) is worth chasing — it suggests the school is being deliberately expanded.
What's next
Visit Bronx Aerospace. Talk to the current principal, Hugo Velasquez. Pull the school's annual budget across the past seven years from the city's school-budget portal (Galaxy). Find out whether the New York City Department of Education expanded the school deliberately based on the improvement.
Methodology & replication recipe — the data sources, queries, and steps behind this analysis.
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