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How long before the election did you decide that you were going to vote the way you did?
Timing of presidential vote decision · Asked in 17 waves, 1948–2020 · 33,571 responses · weighted estimates computed from individual responses
Codes that include 'no Pre/Post IW' were dropped for respondents without that interview. Dropped only in years where the codebook names a design split (alternate form, half sample, abbreviated or web instrument): 0 in 1972, 1984. Kept and flagged: 0 (other_missing). Codebook notes: GENERAL NOTE: See Appendix NOTE ‘PRESIDENTIAL VOTE DECISION’. 1948 NOTE: No code corresponding to code 2 was used; code 1 includes all pre- convention mentions (no cases coded 2). 2008 NOTE: Data will be available in a future release. 2012 NOTE: Data will be available in a future release. 2016 NOTE: Responses were coded using a new coding scheme devised in 2008 (2008 and 2012 responses not yet coded accordingly). The collapse from the new categories is different than for preceding (1956-2004) studies. Recoding from 2016 categories to VCF0712 codes is as follows: 1 to code 6; 2,3,4,5 to code 5; 6,7,8 to code 4; 9 to code 3; 10,11 to code 1; all else to code 0.
Dashed lines mark changes in how interviews were done, which can shift answers: 1. → mixed mode (2016).
Shares of people who gave an answer. Each column is one wave, evenly spaced rather than to scale in time; hover for exact shares.
| Poll | Field dates | Mode | Respondents | Responses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANES 2020 Time Series Study Source variable: V201031y, V202075y. | 2020-08-18 to 2021-01-04 | mixed | 8,280 | 7,482 |
| ANES 2016 Time Series Study Source variable: V161029b,V162036a. | 2016-09-07 to 2017-01-09 | mixed | 4,270 | 3,664 |
| ANES 2004 Time Series Study | 2004-09-07 to 2004-12-19 | face to face | 1,212 | 1,066 |
| ANES 2000 Time Series Study Source variable: V001251. | 2000-09-05 to 2000-12-22 | mixed | 1,807 | 1,555 |
| ANES 1996 Time Series Study Source variable: V961084. | 1996-09-03 to 1997-01-02 | mixed | 1,714 | 1,534 |
| ANES 1992 Time Series Study Source variable: V925611. | 1992-09-02 to 1993-01-16 | mixed | 2,485 | 2,255 |
| ANES 1988 Time Series Study Source variable: V880765. | 1988-09-06 to 1989-01-23 | face to face | 2,040 | 1,775 |
| ANES 1984 Time Series Study Source variable: V840790. |
Dashed lines mark changes in how interviews were done, which can shift answers: 1. → mixed mode (2016).
Shares of people who gave an answer. A group’s column is left blank in waves where its effective sample is under 50; hover for exact shares.
| Group | Knew all along (incl.: always vote for same party; 1948 ONLY: all pre-convention cases) | When candidate announced (exc. 1948) | During conventions | Post-convention period | Last two weeks of campaign | On election day | n | MoE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All respondents | 69% | – | 8% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 7482 | ±2 | |
| Democrats | 66% | – | 8% | 20% | 5% | 1% | 2599 | ±3 | |
| Independents (incl. leaners) | 60% | – | 10% | 16% | 10% | 4% | 2548 | ±3 | |
| Republicans | 79% | – | 7% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 2310 | ±3 |
ANES 2020 Time Series Study · US citizens 18+ (face-to-face samples: contiguous 48 states and DC; web samples: 50 states and DC). Shares of people who gave an answer. n is unweighted; ± is the 95% margin of error at 50% from the weighted effective sample. Groups with an effective sample under 50 are grayed; under 20, hidden.
| 1984-09-04 to 1985-01-24 |
| mixed |
| 2,257 |
| 1,391 |
| ANES 1980 Time Series Study Source variable: V800996. | 1980-09-02 to 1981-02-07 | face to face | 1,614 | 1,408 |
| ANES 1976 Time Series Study Source variable: V763666. | 1976-09-07 to 1977-01-30 | face to face | 2,248 | 1,909 |
| ANES 1972 Time Series Study Source variable: V720479. | 1972-09-01 to 1973-02-13 | face to face | 2,705 | 1,487 |
| ANES 1968 Time Series Study Source variable: V680318. | 1968-09-06 to 1969-01-28 | face to face | 1,557 | 1,348 |
| ANES 1964 Time Series Study Source variable: V640288. | 1964-09-07 to 1965-02-01 | face to face | 1,571 | 1,450 |
| ANES 1960 Time Series Study Source variable: V600204. | 1960-09-12 to 1960-12-26 | face to face | 1,181 | 1,109 |
| ANES 1956 Time Series Study Source variable: V560206. | 1956-09-17 to 1957-01-19 | face to face | 1,762 | 1,762 |
| ANES 1952 Time Series Study Source variable: V520183. | 1952-09-15 | face to face | 1,899 | 1,714 |
| ANES 1948 Time Series Study Source variable: V480019. | 1948-10-01 to 1948-12-31 | face to face | 662 | 662 |