Why is elementary chronic absenteeism stuck above pre-COVID?

Thesis

Elementary kids can't choose to skip school — their parents have to take them. So why is elementary chronic absenteeism still 7 points above 2019? Three hypotheses: (1) parent norms shifted during COVID, (2) economic precarity, (3) the kindergarten cohort. The data lets us test each.

Supporting findings

• Drill into chronic absenteeism by grade — is the elementary increase concentrated in K-2 (where parents may keep kids home for sniffles post-COVID)?
• Compare with secondary school absenteeism trends — secondary kids have more autonomy.
• Cross-reference with NYC Open Data on weekday workforce composition — is more parent-WFH letting K kids stay home?
• Compare with parental decisions about pulling kids for travel (especially in Manhattan).
• The 'kindergarten cohort' theory: kids who started K during remote learning have weaker school-attachment norms — they're now in 3rd grade.
• Look at first-grade vs fifth-grade attendance separately. If 1st-graders are worst, that's the norm-shift story.
• Pull NYC subway/transit ridership data — does it correlate with school attendance?
• Compare with weather data — bad-weather days vs attendance dips. Did pandemic-era 'snow day' apps make excuse-easier?
• What about post-COVID virtual school options? NYC has a tiny remote-learning program — are families using it for absentee 'cover'?
• Citywide policy: NYC's 'every day counts' attendance campaign. Effective or theater?

Reporting directions

• Disaggregate chronic absenteeism by grade level (we have grade-level data in attendance xlsx — need to ingest beyond 'All Grades').
• Interview elementary principals on what's changed in parent communication post-COVID.
• Pull NYC DOE's 311 'attendance call' volume vs response data.
• Compare with similar urban districts (DC, San Francisco) for elementary attendance pattern.