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How about people out of work during the coming 12 months– do you think that there will be more unemployment than now, about the same, or less?
Expected unemployment over next 12 months · Asked in 7 waves, 1992–2024 · 29,379 responses · weighted estimates computed from individual responses
Codes that include 'no Pre/Post IW' were dropped for respondents without that interview. Dropped only in years where the codebook names a design split (alternate form, half sample, abbreviated or web instrument): -9 in 2004. Kept and flagged: -9 (other_missing), -8 (dk).
Dashed lines mark changes in how interviews were done, which can shift answers: 1. → mixed mode (2012).
Shares of people who gave an answer. Each column is one wave, evenly spaced rather than to scale in time; hover for exact shares.
| Group | More unemployment | About the same | Less unemployment | n | MoE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All respondents | 21% | 63% | 16% | 5264 |
| Poll | Field dates | Mode | Respondents | Responses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANES 2024 Time Series Study Source variable: V241301. | 2024-08-03 to 2025-02-17 | mixed | 5,521 | 5,264 |
| ANES 2020 Time Series Study Source variable: V201334. | 2020-08-18 to 2021-01-04 | mixed | 8,280 | 8,273 |
| ANES 2016 Time Series Study Source variable: V161143. | 2016-09-07 to 2017-01-09 | mixed | 4,270 | 4,269 |
| ANES 2012 Time Series Study Source variable: econ_unnext. | 2012-09-09 to 2013-01-13 | mixed | 5,914 | 5,910 |
| ANES 2008 Time Series Study Source variable: V083088. | 2008-09-02 to 2008-12-30 | face to face | 2,322 | 2,322 |
| ANES 2004 Time Series Study Source variable: V043103. | 2004-09-07 to 2004-12-19 | face to face | 1,212 | 1,086 |
| ANES 1992 Time Series Study Source variable: V926152. | 1992-09-02 to 1993-01-16 | mixed | 2,485 | 2,255 |
Dashed lines mark changes in how interviews were done, which can shift answers: 1. → mixed mode (2012).
Shares of people who gave an answer. A group’s column is left blank in waves where its effective sample is under 50; hover for exact shares.
| ±2 |
| Protestant | 21% | 62% | 18% | 1638 | ±4 |
| Catholic | 22% | 62% | 16% | 972 | ±5 |
| Jewish | 19% | 65% | 17% | 116 | ±13 |
| Other faith | 23% | 62% | 15% | 1203 | ±4 |
| None | 19% | 65% | 16% | 1335 | ±4 |
ANES 2024 Time Series Study · US citizens 18+ (face-to-face samples: contiguous 48 states and DC; web samples: 50 states and DC). Shares of people who gave an answer. n is unweighted; ± is the 95% margin of error at 50% from the weighted effective sample. Groups with an effective sample under 50 are grayed; under 20, hidden.